Strongman

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$5.99

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $5.51 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.13%

12.1K openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.39%±4.761,823 openings

7 days

90.69%±2.0010.3K openings

30 days

90.13%±1.8512.1K openings

since tracking started

90.13%±1.8512.1K openings

87.5%93.3%99.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.29% – 91.98%, 12,052 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,823	93.39%±4.76	+0.6σ	odds
7d	10.3K	90.69%±2.00	−1.3σ	odds
30d	12.1K	90.13%±1.85	−2.0σ	odds
All	12.1K	90.13%±1.85	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 7,143	$61.13	0.2%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$57.30	0.2%	2	2.1	0.97×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$55.04	0.1%	6	1.7	3.53×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 581	$52.49	1.6%	6	20.9	0.29×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,408	$48.01	0.6%	11	8.6	1.28×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$46.80	0.1%	8	1.7	4.71×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$41.00	0.1%	14	1.7	8.25×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$36.32	0.1%	24	1.5	16.49×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 218	$35.18	2.9%	29	55.7	0.52×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 223	$31.62	2.6%	41	54.4	0.75×
Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · violet	1 in 215	$25.52	2.2%	62	56.5	1.10×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 168	$24.87	2.7%	67	72.4	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$23.21	3.9%	79	111.3	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 130	$18.37	2.6%	84	93.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 132	$17.11	2.4%	119	91.8	1.30×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$16.80	3.2%	107	125.9	0.85×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$15.35	3.3%	132	145.3	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 134	$13.42	1.8%	118	90.5	1.30×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 98	$13.37	2.5%	122	123.3	0.99×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$12.22	3.3%	146	178.5	0.82×
Seal Team 6 Soldier \| NSWC SEALagent · distinguished	1 in 65	$11.62	3.3%	185	187.2	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$11.38	2.7%	193	159.3	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$11.35	3.1%	202	184.7	1.09×
'The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabreagent · red	1 in 53	$10.88	3.7%	189	227.1	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$9.63	3.5%	233	243.2	0.96×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$9.50	3.8%	233	265.0	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$6.75	3.8%	421	380.4	1.11×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$6.37	4.2%	347	437.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noonmusic kit · #4B69FF	1 in 27	$5.94	4.0%	541	452.4	1.20×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$5.25	4.5%	483	578.4	0.84×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$4.75	2.8%	367	390.9	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 24	$4.14	3.1%	462	498.1	0.93×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$3.84	3.3%	487	573.6	0.85×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$3.63	3.1%	552	570.8	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$3.25	2.7%	607	559.3	1.09×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 22	$2.51	2.1%	519	557.2	0.93×
PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 19	$2.10	2.0%	634	642.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$1.82	2.0%	711	737.3	0.96×
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$1.72	2.0%	834	787.8	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$1.48	1.3%	803	601.3	1.34×
P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 21	$1.34	1.1%	590	570.0	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.92	0.8%	697	598.4	1.16×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.69	0.7%	658	685.6	0.96×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/strongman, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · RaremoNic$5.99$0.680.11x4m

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$1.710.29x5m

M4A4 | Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6CARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$24.854.15x5m

PP-Bizon | Lumen (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1CARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$2.090.35x5m

AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$15.322.56x5m

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$0.680.11x5m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$5.230.87x5m

P2000 | Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$1.330.22x5m

MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$1.460.24x5m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedCARCAHİL ADAM$5.99$6.331.06x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$5.99	92.04%	43
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.99	92.10%	43
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$5.99	92.08%	43
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$5.99	92.07%	43
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$5.99	92.08%	43
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$5.99	92.05%	43
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$5.99	92.04%	43
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.99	92.04%	43
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$5.99	92.07%	43
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$5.99	92.10%	43
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$5.99	92.00%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 5.3%gold 0.0%covert 0.1%classified 22.4%extraordinary 0.2%pink 5.7%Ancient 0.5%red 2.3%violet 17.7%#d32ce6 0.6%uncommon 1.2%industrial 1.0%distinguished 1.5%restricted 12.2%#4B69FF 3.7%#d32ee6 4.1%Mil Spec Grade 4.6%#4b69ff 6.5%blue 4.7%Rare 5.7%best hit —