Tactical case
A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
75.06%
EV $0.75 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.73%
1,689 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.90% – 104.56%, 1,689 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds summed to 0.9676, rescaled · observed counts over 1,689 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
ggdrop:api/case/tactical-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.06%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.00 | 75.06% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.00 | 80.81% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.00 | 77.98% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.00 | 76.73% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.00 | 77.58% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.00 | 80.19% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.00 | 74.47% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.00 | 80.69% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.00 | 77.21% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.00 | 81.55% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.00 | 78.22% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.00 | 83.78% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.00 | 76.48% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.00 | 79.91% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.00 | 81.47% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.00 | 76.81% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.00 | 78.27% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.00 | 82.79% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.00 | 80.41% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.00 | 79.22% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.00 | 78.66% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.00 | 80.21% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 78.08% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 78.97% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.00 | 79.49% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.00 | 72.53% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.00 | 77.79% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 77.99% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.00 | 78.29% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1.00 | 83.10% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 0.0%classified 0.3%#8847ff 11.2%Mythical 5.2%Restricted 6.4%milspec 18.4%mil spec 5.2%Rare 12.3%restricted 4.7%violet 7.9%#4b69ff 15.1%Mil Spec 2.3%blue 3.5%Mil Spec Grade 4.3%best hit —