Tamagotchi

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.95

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $0.87 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

108.31%

8,599 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

109.46%±7.161,077 openings

7 days

109.32%±2.717,316 openings

30 days

108.31%±2.498,599 openings

since tracking started

108.31%±2.498,599 openings

91.5%104.5%117.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.82% – 110.80%, 8,599 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,077	109.46%±7.16	+4.8σ	odds
7d	7,316	109.32%±2.71	+12.5σ	odds
30d	8,599	108.31%±2.49	+12.8σ	odds
All	8,599	108.31%±2.49	+12.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,603 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$14.05	0.4%	1	1.9	0.53×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 488	$13.16	3.1%	16	17.6	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 346	$10.06	3.3%	17	24.9	0.68×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 485	$8.24	1.9%	21	17.7	1.18×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 481	$7.70	1.8%	57	17.9	3.19×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 775	$7.39	1.1%	19	11.1	1.71×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 143	$5.06	4.0%	65	60.0	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 113	$4.27	4.3%	94	76.0	1.24×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 95	$3.32	4.0%	126	90.5	1.39×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$2.41	4.5%	141	139.5	1.01×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 70	$2.05	3.4%	186	123.0	1.51×
SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 47	$1.74	4.3%	230	184.9	1.24×
M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 48	$1.58	3.8%	249	178.8	1.39×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 48	$1.49	3.5%	219	179.0	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 53	$1.34	2.9%	183	162.3	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$1.28	2.3%	161	135.8	1.19×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$1.28	2.3%	157	136.2	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 72	$1.25	2.0%	197	118.7	1.66×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 70	$1.24	2.0%	146	123.5	1.18×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 67	$1.24	2.1%	165	129.0	1.28×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$1.15	2.4%	175	156.1	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.04	2.2%	155	156.2	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 62	$1.04	1.9%	160	139.1	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$0.96	1.8%	281	137.1	2.05×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 37	$0.86	2.7%	244	232.3	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$0.75	2.5%	341	249.9	1.36×
SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.71	2.5%	257	260.5	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Zeno (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 31	$0.64	2.4%	352	280.6	1.25×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$0.63	2.4%	369	281.7	1.31×
P250 \| Re.built (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 35	$0.58	1.9%	319	247.0	1.29×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 37	$0.55	1.7%	274	231.2	1.19×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$0.54	1.6%	312	216.7	1.44×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 34	$0.53	1.8%	295	251.7	1.17×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 35	$0.53	1.7%	286	244.2	1.17×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 35	$0.51	1.6%	375	242.8	1.54×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 38	$0.47	1.4%	482	228.9	2.11×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$0.44	1.7%	384	292.1	1.31×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 19	$0.34	2.0%	489	451.5	1.08×
P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.33	2.2%	592	495.5	1.19×
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 15	$0.23	1.8%	0	575.9	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.19	1.7%	11	674.9	0.02×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.15	1.3%	0	628.9	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/tamagotchi, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluesalze.$0.95$0.500.53x1m

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspecsalze.$0.95$1.251.32x1m

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Raresalze.$0.95$0.520.55x1m

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Raresalze.$0.95$0.520.55x2m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinksalze.$0.95$1.251.32x2m

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluesalze.$0.95$0.500.53x2m

Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violetsalze.$0.95$2.332.45x3m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendarysalze.$0.95$8.178.60x3m

SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9salze.$0.95$1.001.05x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.95	92.09%	42
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.95	92.03%	42
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.95	92.01%	42
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.95	92.04%	42
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.95	92.08%	42
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.95	92.10%	42
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.95	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.95	92.08%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.5%Legendary 0.9%mil spec 7.9%restricted 4.9%#8847ff 4.4%milspec 7.7%violet 6.6%Restricted 1.4%blue 16.0%blueLight 2.1%pink 1.6%#d32ce6 1.4%#4b69ff 15.3%#5e98d9 8.3%uncommon 2.7%Rare 11.0%Uncommon 7.3%best hit —