The Gamer

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$29.99

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $27.59 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.52%

2,882 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.40%±9.92428 openings

7 days

88.91%±4.432,153 openings

30 days

89.52%±3.832,882 openings

since tracking started

89.52%±3.832,882 openings

74.0%84.5%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	428	84.40%±9.92	−1.5σ	odds
7d	2,153	88.91%±4.43	−1.4σ	odds
30d	2,882	89.52%±3.83	−1.3σ	odds
All	2,882	89.52%±3.83	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,886 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$209	0.6%	3	2.1	1.42×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 192	$188	3.6%	11	15.0	0.73×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 301	$174	2.1%	6	9.6	0.63×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$166	2.6%	8	12.6	0.64×
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 299	$154	1.9%	9	9.7	0.93×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 163	$151	3.4%	13	17.7	0.73×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 132	$111	3.0%	20	21.9	0.91×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$107	3.2%	17	23.7	0.72×
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 78	$106	5.0%	29	37.1	0.78×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 72	$84.19	4.3%	39	40.2	0.97×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$75.29	3.1%	52	32.8	1.58×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$73.85	4.3%	46	46.6	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$60.26	3.9%	55	51.3	1.07×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 52	$58.07	4.0%	60	55.3	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 45	$50.27	4.1%	70	64.3	1.09×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 35	$44.93	4.7%	59	82.6	0.71×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 40	$38.15	3.4%	88	71.8	1.23×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$38.02	4.2%	78	88.5	0.88×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$35.72	4.3%	96	95.2	1.01×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$30.17	3.7%	105	98.5	1.07×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$27.28	3.1%	89	91.4	0.97×
Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · violet	1 in 25	$25.31	3.7%	113	115.0	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$21.18	3.6%	140	136.3	1.03×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 23	$19.90	3.2%	143	126.1	1.13×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$18.68	3.2%	131	134.7	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$15.04	2.9%	179	152.4	1.17×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$10.85	1.9%	130	142.6	0.91×
Chem-Haz Specialist \| SWATagent · blue	1 in 17	$10.23	2.2%	154	168.7	0.91×
Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$9.51	2.1%	172	175.7	0.98×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$7.37	1.6%	171	170.8	1.00×
Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Well-Worn)weapon	1 in 25	$5.12	0.7%	117	114.6	1.02×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 22	$4.78	0.8%	133	133.7	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$4.75	0.9%	144	147.6	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$4.35	0.6%	119	117.5	1.01×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$3.23	0.3%	87	82.3	1.06×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/the-gamer, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Chem-Haz Specialist | SWATagent · blueRetr0$29.99$10.230.34xnow

Nova | Sobek's Bite (Well-Worn)weaponRetr0$29.99$5.080.17x13s

USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedRetr0$29.99$7.370.25x21s

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedRetr0$29.99$21.530.72x30s

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryRetr0$29.99$4.830.16x38s

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6Retr0$29.99$4.740.16x46s

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covertRetr0$29.99$73.702.46x59s

Col. Mangos Dabisi | Guerrilla Warfareagent · violetRetr0$29.99$25.420.85x1m

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertRetr0$29.99$83.892.80x1m

Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restrictedсправжня курво$29.99$14.910.50x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$29.99	92.09%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$29.99	92.03%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$29.99	92.04%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$29.99	92.04%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$29.99	92.03%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$29.99	92.10%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$29.99	92.05%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$29.99	92.06%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$29.99	92.08%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$29.99	92.05%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$29.99	92.09%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$29.99	92.07%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$29.99	92.09%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$29.99	92.05%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$29.99	92.05%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$29.99	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$29.99	92.09%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$29.99	92.09%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 16.7%covert 9.1%epic 0.6%extraordinary 2.7%rare 5.7%red 2.2%Classified 10.9%Ancient 2.5%restricted 8.4%violet 12.7%blue 5.8%#4b69ff 6.1%other 4.0%Legendary 4.6%#d32ee6 5.1%#8847ff 2.9%best hit —