The Rock

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.29

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $1.19 from 72 items

Observed RTP, 30d

115.51%

11.6K openings, odds method

Variance

13.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

101.04%±21.74971 openings

7 days

118.26%±6.5410.2K openings

30 days

115.51%±6.1311.6K openings

since tracking started

115.51%±6.1311.6K openings

78.5%102.0%125.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (109.38% – 121.65%, 11,631 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	971	101.04%±21.7	+0.8σ	odds
7d	10.2K	118.26%±6.54	+7.9σ	odds
30d	11.6K	115.51%±6.13	+7.5σ	odds
All	11.6K	115.51%±6.13	+7.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$229	3.9%	5	2.3	2.15×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$124	1.7%	1	1.9	0.54×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$121	1.6%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$118	2.0%	3	2.3	1.29×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,143	$66.53	0.8%	1	1.6	0.61×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$64.50	0.9%	2	2.0	1.01×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$48.32	0.4%	2	1.2	1.72×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,263	$47.97	0.8%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,333	$44.70	0.5%	2	1.4	1.43×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 8,333	$42.97	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$33.73	0.5%	2	2.0	1.01×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 9,091	$32.59	0.3%	2	1.3	1.56×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,882	$32.34	0.5%	1	2.0	0.51×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,263	$32.34	0.5%	2	2.2	0.90×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$30.96	0.4%	4	2.0	2.02×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$30.11	0.3%	3	1.3	2.34×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$28.78	2.1%	6	10.2	0.59×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 518	$10.71	1.7%	32	22.5	1.42×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 235	$5.31	1.9%	99	49.5	2.00×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 437	$5.12	1.0%	126	26.7	4.73×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 114	$5.03	3.7%	73	102.4	0.71×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 103	$3.41	2.8%	161	112.7	1.43×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 97	$3.37	2.9%	163	119.6	1.36×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$3.33	2.8%	164	116.0	1.41×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 72	$3.27	3.8%	202	161.8	1.25×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 101	$3.13	2.6%	227	115.2	1.97×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 63	$2.75	3.7%	383	186.1	2.06×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$2.29	3.8%	279	229.2	1.22×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 47	$2.26	4.0%	333	246.7	1.35×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$2.25	4.4%	301	270.9	1.11×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1.55	4.1%	432	367.5	1.18×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$1.22	3.0%	526	344.3	1.53×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$1.18	3.8%	525	442.2	1.19×
P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.15	4.5%	610	535.1	1.14×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 27	$1.01	3.1%	458	424.8	1.08×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 51	$0.92	1.5%	310	226.1	1.37×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$0.89	2.0%	343	303.8	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 34	$0.84	2.1%	316	338.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 41	$0.73	1.5%	322	286.6	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$0.66	1.4%	188	291.6	0.64×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$0.64	1.3%	332	276.1	1.20×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$0.64	1.4%	362	294.0	1.23×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$0.63	1.4%	475	299.8	1.58×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 58	$0.59	0.9%	256	200.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 69	$0.55	0.7%	344	168.9	2.04×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$0.53	0.7%	334	195.3	1.71×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$0.52	0.9%	169	246.3	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 58	$0.49	0.7%	198	200.4	0.99×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$0.47	0.6%	202	190.5	1.06×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 70	$0.44	0.5%	241	165.8	1.45×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 60	$0.43	0.6%	218	194.1	1.12×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$0.42	0.5%	91	171.3	0.53×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 64	$0.42	0.6%	287	183.2	1.57×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$0.42	0.6%	203	182.5	1.11×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 90	$0.41	0.4%	134	129.9	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 107	$0.40	0.3%	318	108.6	2.93×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 85	$0.38	0.4%	238	136.5	1.74×
P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 103	$0.38	0.3%	204	113.1	1.80×
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$0.35	0.5%	217	205.6	1.06×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 54	$0.31	0.5%	203	213.7	0.95×
P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$0.20	0.3%	0	225.3	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 35	$0.18	0.4%	0	334.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 35	$0.15	0.4%	0	333.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$0.15	0.4%	0	337.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$0.14	0.3%	0	307.5	0.00×
P250 \| Re.built (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 85	$0.12	0.1%	0	136.9	0.00×
P250 \| Re.built (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 117	$0.12	0.1%	0	99.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$0.12	0.1%	0	127.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.12	0.1%	0	130.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$0.12	0.1%	0	143.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 108	$0.12	0.1%	0	107.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 96	$0.12	0.1%	0	120.7	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/the-rock, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinarysoldado$1.29$231178.9x1d

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · ExtraordinaryBAR1NABA1$1.29$226175.0x3d

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary4n1gga$1.29$221171.2x3d

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · ExtraordinaryN1K$1.29$221171.2x3d

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary(UA) Staperon$1.29$214166.2x6d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertСельський Романт$1.29$12596.72x3d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertsoldado$1.29$12496.26x1d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertJO†A$1.29$12395.26x2d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · redN1K$1.29$12092.67x3d

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · redBAR1NABA1$1.29$11992.29x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · AncientCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$32.8825.49x11m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$3.202.48x11m

MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$0.900.70x11m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$0.640.50x11m

StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$0.660.51x11m

MP7 | Armor Core (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$0.370.29x11m

StatTrak™ AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6CS.PRO AEZY$1.29$5.103.95x13m

MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$0.900.70x13m

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$0.840.65x13m

P250 | Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil specCS.PRO AEZY$1.29$1.190.92x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.29	92.10%	72
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.29	91.99%	72
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.29	92.01%	72
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	72
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.29	92.04%	72
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.29	92.08%	72
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.29	91.99%	72
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.29	92.10%	72
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.29	92.06%	72
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.29	92.01%	72
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	72
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.29	92.05%	72
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	72
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.29	91.99%	72
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	72
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.29	91.99%	72

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 3.9%3 2.7%Extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.1%red 0.1%Ancient 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 18.7%Classified 0.4%#d32ce6 0.9%pink 5.4%blue 7.1%Rare 2.0%mil spec 19.3%#8847ff 6.8%Mythical 2.9%violet 15.4%#4b69ff 4.0%milspec 6.1%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%best hit $231 (178.9x)