Toxic Lobby

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$17.75
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $16.33 from 72 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.16%
1,880 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.60%±10.49286 openings
7 days
91.97%±4.441,533 openings
30 days
92.16%±4.001,880 openings
since tracking started
92.16%±4.001,880 openings
78.5%89.5%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h28689.60%±10.5−0.4σodds
7d1,53391.97%±4.44+0.0σodds
30d1,88092.16%±4.00+0.1σodds
All1,88092.16%±4.00+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,880 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Charm | Butane Buddycharm · Ancient1 in 174$1415.0%1510.81.39×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 65$51.814.9%1929.00.66×
AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 71$47.094.1%3726.61.39×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 64$47.034.5%3429.41.16×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 65$46.544.4%3229.01.10×
AWP | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 229$46.471.2%258.23.04×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 259$45.511.1%117.31.52×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 283$44.451.0%126.61.81×
P250 | Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 195$41.491.3%109.71.03×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 162$41.141.6%911.60.78×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 168$35.571.3%811.20.72×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 129$34.431.6%514.60.34×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 112$34.281.9%2016.81.19×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 111$34.041.9%1517.00.88×
M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 341$33.530.6%115.52.00×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 237$33.400.9%77.90.88×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 633$32.910.3%33.01.01×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 146$32.751.4%512.90.39×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient1 in 260$32.590.8%117.21.52×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 292$31.960.7%116.41.71×
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 183$31.791.1%610.30.58×
M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 311$30.960.6%106.11.65×
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 125$30.581.5%815.00.53×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 190$30.111.0%99.90.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 120$28.781.5%815.60.51×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 115$27.541.5%516.30.31×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 130$27.431.3%2114.41.45×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 103$27.391.6%918.20.49×
P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 106$26.631.5%2117.81.18×
P250 | Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified1 in 110$25.301.4%817.10.47×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 101$24.051.5%1718.60.91×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 86$21.191.5%1121.80.50×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 83$20.691.5%2522.71.10×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 70$20.481.8%2726.71.01×
AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 70$20.081.8%1526.80.56×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 115$19.811.1%1616.40.98×
AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 98$18.791.2%2819.11.47×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 104$18.661.1%2318.11.27×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 101$17.801.1%2418.61.29×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 72$17.411.5%2526.00.96×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 70$15.281.3%2327.00.85×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 62$14.681.5%2330.40.76×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 76$14.641.2%3024.71.21×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 62$14.621.4%2530.30.82×
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 77$14.501.1%2124.30.86×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 100$13.870.9%1918.91.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 85$12.010.9%2622.11.17×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 67$11.091.0%4128.21.45×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 52$11.061.3%2336.20.64×
P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 51$10.451.3%2737.10.73×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce61 in 53$10.451.2%3535.40.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 81$10.270.8%3023.31.29×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 106$10.250.6%3517.81.97×
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 101$10.220.6%1418.70.75×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 89$9.580.7%1221.20.57×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 114$9.500.5%2316.61.39×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 90$9.450.6%3220.81.53×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 72$9.240.8%3526.11.34×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 100$9.140.6%2918.91.53×
P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 61$8.840.9%1130.80.36×
P90 | Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 57$8.720.9%2532.80.76×
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 63$7.910.8%3629.91.20×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 56$7.910.9%3933.81.15×
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 50$7.660.9%2737.60.72×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 42$7.421.1%5345.11.17×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 34$6.521.2%4755.40.85×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 29$5.711.2%7364.51.13×
AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 26$5.561.3%7371.51.02×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20$4.931.5%9292.11.00×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 21$4.691.4%8989.31.00×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 20$4.591.4%9592.51.03×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified1 in 19$3.931.3%101100.61.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/toxic-lobby, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$17.7592.00%72
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$17.7591.97%72
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$17.7591.91%72
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$17.7591.99%72
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$17.7592.00%72
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$17.7591.94%72
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$17.7592.00%72
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$17.7591.93%72
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$17.7591.90%72
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$17.7591.97%72
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$17.7591.92%72
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$17.7592.00%72
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$17.7591.97%72
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$17.7591.94%72
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$17.7591.90%72
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$17.7591.95%72
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$17.7592.00%72
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$17.7591.91%72
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$17.7591.96%72
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$17.7591.99%72
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$17.7591.95%72
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$17.7592.00%72
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$17.7591.91%72
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$17.7591.99%72
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$17.7591.91%72
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$17.7592.00%72
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$17.7591.90%72
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$17.7591.94%72
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$17.7591.91%72
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$17.7591.93%72
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 2.2%classified 37.3%red 2.4%covert 6.3%extraordinary 2.8%#d32ee6 6.1%rare 7.2%Classified 14.9%pink 8.5%uncommon 3.0%Legendary 6.0%#d32ce6 3.4%best hit —