1% Upgrade

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$11.99

Advertised RTP

92.09%

EV $11.04 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.70%

1,518 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.66%±13.78178 openings

7 days

93.90%±5.031,299 openings

30 days

94.70%±4.651,518 openings

since tracking started

94.70%±4.651,518 openings

81.0%95.5%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	178	95.66%±13.8	+0.5σ	odds
7d	1,299	93.90%±5.03	+0.7σ	odds
30d	1,518	94.70%±4.65	+1.1σ	odds
All	1,518	94.70%±4.65	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,518 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$67.55	0.5%	2	1.3	1.50×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 273	$58.34	1.9%	6	5.6	1.08×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 282	$56.92	1.8%	8	5.4	1.48×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 217	$54.87	2.3%	11	7.0	1.58×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 179	$51.81	2.6%	25	8.5	2.95×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 173	$49.32	2.6%	15	8.8	1.71×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 200	$47.09	2.1%	11	7.6	1.45×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$40.47	3.2%	9	13.1	0.69×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$39.28	4.0%	17	16.9	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 83	$36.49	4.0%	18	18.3	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 57	$32.54	5.2%	12	26.7	0.45×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 68	$29.58	4.0%	31	22.4	1.38×
MAC-10 \| Graven (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$24.87	4.4%	29	29.9	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$21.24	4.3%	37	34.0	1.09×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$18.49	4.6%	39	41.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 33	$16.06	4.4%	40	46.3	0.86×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$13.53	3.8%	38	47.0	0.81×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$11.79	3.7%	40	52.4	0.76×
MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 31	$11.68	3.4%	48	48.8	0.98×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$11.56	3.3%	47	47.6	0.99×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$11.10	2.5%	22	38.1	0.58×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 48	$11.09	2.1%	48	31.5	1.53×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$9.22	2.1%	37	37.8	0.98×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$9.14	2.6%	46	47.3	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$8.27	2.6%	54	52.6	1.03×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$7.70	3.0%	80	64.7	1.24×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 26	$7.33	2.5%	69	57.6	1.20×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$5.86	2.6%	74	73.4	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$4.75	2.1%	82	73.9	1.11×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$4.41	2.3%	70	85.6	0.82×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$4.12	2.4%	94	99.4	0.95×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$4.03	2.1%	99	87.2	1.14×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$3.62	1.8%	86	81.0	1.06×
Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noonmusic kit · blue	1 in 17	$3.24	1.8%	76	91.3	0.83×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$2.44	1.6%	98	107.4	0.91×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/upgrade-ggdrop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$4.400.37x1h

MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$11.760.98x1h

UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$2.470.21x1h

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$13.521.13x1h

P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$4.400.37x1h

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$3.600.30x1h

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$4.040.34x1h

P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$4.030.34x1h

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$21.131.76x1h

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommon༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$11.99$7.290.61x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.09%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$11.99	92.09%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$11.99	92.10%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$11.99	92.01%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$11.99	92.07%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$11.99	92.05%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$11.99	92.06%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$11.99	92.09%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$11.99	92.02%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$11.99	92.09%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$11.99	92.06%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$11.99	92.08%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$11.99	92.03%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$11.99	92.08%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$11.99	92.07%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$11.99	92.04%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$11.99	92.09%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$11.99	92.08%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$11.99	92.01%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$11.99	92.01%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$11.99	92.00%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.8%red 5.3%classified 23.7%rare 0.6%mil spec 3.9%restricted 7.9%pink 16.8%#87c7ff 3.2%#d32ce6 2.1%#8847ff 8.3%#4b69ff 4.3%uncommon 3.8%industrial 5.3%blue 6.0%violet 7.1%best hit —