Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$2.79
Advertised RTP
91.79%
EV $2.56 from 106 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.47%
321 openings, odds method
Variance
146.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
59 openings · below min
7 days
71.76%±115.85282 openings
30 days
71.47%±103.27321 openings
since tracking started
71.47%±103.27321 openings
-0.5%196.5%393.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5965.34%±327.7—odds
7d28271.76%±115.8−0.3σodds
30d32171.47%±103.3−0.4σodds
All32171.47%±103.3−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 321 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$2,74016.1%00.0—
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 9,091$1850.8%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 6,667$1090.6%00.0—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$94.670.4%00.0—
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$89.580.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$89.260.7%00.1—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$88.890.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$46.780.3%00.1—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 10,000$42.890.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon1 in 5,000$34.000.3%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$33.100.2%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$31.950.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$30.980.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 6,667$30.870.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,667$30.520.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$29.990.2%00.1—
P250 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$29.210.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 7,143$26.740.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$26.530.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$25.840.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 5,000$24.180.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$23.980.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$23.880.1%00.1—
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$23.730.1%00.1—
XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 9,091$21.830.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$18.330.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,882$18.010.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$17.360.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$14.920.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Heavy1 in 5,556$14.070.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$13.770.1%00.0—
P250 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$13.610.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$13.380.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$12.740.1%00.1—
P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$12.370.1%00.1—
XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$12.010.1%00.1—
P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$11.330.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$11.210.0%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec1 in 7,143$10.740.1%00.0—
P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$10.690.1%00.1—
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 9,091$10.480.0%00.0—
XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$10.160.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,882$9.730.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 8,333$9.660.0%00.0—
XM1014 | Tranquility (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 10,000$9.500.0%00.0—
XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$9.470.1%00.0—
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 8,333$9.070.0%10.0—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$8.580.0%00.0—
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 478$8.420.7%10.7—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 9,091$8.280.0%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 8,333$8.270.0%20.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$8.200.1%10.1—
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 6,667$8.200.0%10.0—
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 376$8.070.8%10.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,136$8.020.3%00.3—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 6,250$7.900.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$7.890.0%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 323$7.480.9%21.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 183$7.021.5%01.80.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 158$6.941.7%12.00.49×
M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 186$5.921.2%21.71.16×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 118$5.581.8%32.71.11×
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 73$5.312.8%34.40.69×
UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 66$5.163.0%54.81.03×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 76$4.502.3%44.20.95×
MP9 | Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 64$3.802.3%35.00.60×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.702.4%75.31.33×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 53$3.682.7%56.00.83×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.602.3%65.31.14×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 189$3.500.7%31.71.77×
M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 95$3.441.4%13.40.30×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 95$3.291.4%43.41.18×
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 82$3.281.6%23.90.51×
MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 114$3.221.1%22.80.71×
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 98$3.111.2%53.31.53×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 79$2.961.5%34.10.74×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 63$2.721.7%75.11.37×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF1 in 66$2.691.6%54.91.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 58$2.351.6%65.61.08×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 53$2.331.7%76.11.15×
Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 59$2.171.4%85.41.48×
Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 37$2.072.2%48.60.46×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 60$2.001.3%25.40.37×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 52$1.951.5%56.20.81×
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 56$1.931.3%55.70.88×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 67$1.861.1%74.81.47×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 64$1.631.0%85.01.60×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 53$1.621.2%26.10.33×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF1 in 50$1.601.2%86.41.25×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted1 in 43$1.511.4%57.50.66×
UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 84$1.500.7%93.82.35×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 56$1.491.0%55.80.87×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 62$1.450.9%65.21.16×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 61$1.440.9%35.20.57×
MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 51$1.391.1%36.30.47×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 37$1.371.4%68.70.69×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 45$1.321.1%97.11.27×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF1 in 34$1.191.4%59.40.53×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 28$1.081.5%911.50.78×
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 24$0.971.6%2113.31.58×
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 23$0.881.5%913.90.65×
G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 23$0.771.3%2013.81.44×
MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · 11 in 22$0.701.2%1814.41.25×
UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 21$0.671.2%1615.31.05×
MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$0.631.2%1716.11.06×
G3SG1 | Murky (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 19$0.621.3%1817.31.04×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vanguard, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.79%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$2.7991.79%106
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$2.7991.85%106
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$2.7991.87%106
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$2.7991.86%106
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$2.7991.79%106
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$2.7991.72%106
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$2.7991.60%106
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$2.7991.56%106
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$2.7991.88%106
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$2.7991.92%106
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$2.7991.71%106
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$2.7991.78%106
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$2.7991.69%106
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$2.7991.89%106
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$2.7991.61%106
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$2.7991.58%106
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$2.7991.85%106
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$2.7991.69%106
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$2.7991.77%106
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$2.7991.83%106
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$2.7991.82%106
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.7991.79%106
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.7991.39%106
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$2.7991.26%106
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$2.7991.81%106
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$2.7991.28%106
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$2.7991.78%106
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$2.7991.82%106
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$2.7991.86%106
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$2.7991.31%106
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.5%covert 0.1%Covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%restricted 14.7%Legendary 0.0%other 0.0%Classified 0.0%classified 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 18.9%Heavy 0.0%Mil Spec 1.5%pink 0.0%Mythical 3.2%violet 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%#8847ff 1.7%Rare 1.3%milspec 12.9%mil spec 27.5%#4b69ff 3.8%#4B69FF 6.4%Restricted 2.3%best hit —