Operation Wildfire Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

89.91%

EV $4.31 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.84%

503 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88 openings · below min

7 days

89.41%±12.12439 openings

30 days

90.84%±11.32503 openings

since tracking started

90.84%±11.32503 openings

65.0%93.0%121.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	88	93.11%±27.5	—	odds
7d	439	89.41%±12.1	−0.2σ	odds
30d	503	90.84%±11.3	+0.1σ	odds
All	503	90.84%±11.3	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values125 items · odds summed to 0.9927, rescaled · observed counts over 503 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$114	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$111	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$98.58	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$94.00	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$92.91	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,091	$83.51	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$83.33	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$79.64	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$77.73	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,667	$74.21	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$68.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$67.52	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,263	$66.33	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$64.84	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$57.23	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$56.40	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$56.07	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$56.00	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$50.06	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$47.97	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$46.70	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$45.48	0.1%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,250	$43.99	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$43.46	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$39.70	0.2%	1	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$39.64	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,471	$35.32	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$34.05	0.6%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 4,167	$33.72	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 9,091	$33.11	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$31.29	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,471	$30.26	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$29.48	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,667	$28.59	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,136	$28.57	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$28.41	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$28.30	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 847	$27.59	0.8%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 671	$26.10	0.9%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,389	$26.01	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 389	$23.32	1.4%	3	1.3	2.30×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$22.37	0.6%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 280	$19.63	1.6%	1	1.8	0.55×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 270	$19.26	1.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 226	$18.76	1.9%	1	2.2	0.45×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 190	$16.10	2.0%	6	2.7	2.26×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$14.08	2.0%	2	3.1	0.65×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$12.70	1.9%	2	3.2	0.63×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 161	$12.29	1.8%	1	3.2	0.32×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 192	$12.01	1.5%	5	2.6	1.89×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$11.56	2.2%	3	4.1	0.74×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 216	$11.39	1.2%	1	2.4	0.43×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 209	$11.10	1.2%	2	2.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 189	$10.70	1.3%	3	2.7	1.12×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 185	$10.08	1.3%	1	2.7	0.36×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 238	$9.94	1.0%	4	2.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 172	$9.92	1.4%	5	2.9	1.70×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 164	$9.83	1.4%	7	3.1	2.27×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 152	$9.30	1.4%	1	3.3	0.30×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 177	$8.96	1.2%	6	2.9	2.09×
Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 105	$8.90	2.0%	3	4.8	0.62×
MP7 \| Impire (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$7.38	1.9%	6	5.5	1.09×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$7.10	2.1%	15	6.5	2.29×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$6.80	2.0%	4	6.5	0.62×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$6.45	2.5%	7	8.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 94	$6.40	1.6%	9	5.4	1.66×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$6.09	1.6%	10	5.5	1.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 91	$5.84	1.5%	5	5.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$5.80	1.3%	6	4.7	1.28×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 90	$5.79	1.5%	5	5.7	0.88×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 79	$5.49	1.6%	4	6.4	0.63×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$5.42	1.5%	7	5.9	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 70	$5.21	1.7%	10	7.2	1.39×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 60	$5.05	2.0%	7	8.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 54	$4.46	1.9%	11	9.4	1.17×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$3.93	2.0%	11	11.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$3.67	2.2%	13	13.3	0.98×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$3.45	2.4%	20	14.9	1.34×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$3.21	1.9%	12	13.1	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$2.94	1.5%	7	11.1	0.63×
FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 52	$2.93	1.3%	6	9.8	0.61×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$2.77	1.2%	6	9.7	0.62×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$2.73	1.0%	3	7.8	0.38×
MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$2.72	0.7%	5	5.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 86	$2.64	0.7%	1	5.9	0.17×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 98	$2.63	0.6%	6	5.2	1.16×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 86	$2.31	0.6%	11	5.9	1.86×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$2.28	0.8%	8	7.8	1.03×
MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 71	$2.28	0.8%	9	7.2	1.26×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$2.14	0.7%	10	7.4	1.36×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$2.11	0.8%	4	8.7	0.46×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 90	$2.09	0.5%	8	5.6	1.42×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$1.94	0.6%	6	7.1	0.84×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$1.91	0.5%	8	5.7	1.40×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 76	$1.91	0.6%	9	6.7	1.35×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 81	$1.90	0.5%	3	6.2	0.48×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 71	$1.81	0.6%	13	7.2	1.81×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 89	$1.74	0.5%	9	5.7	1.57×
Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 65	$1.72	0.6%	6	7.8	0.77×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$1.65	0.7%	6	9.0	0.67×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.32	0.6%	11	10.1	1.09×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$1.22	0.6%	14	11.3	1.24×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 39	$1.16	0.7%	8	13.0	0.62×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$1.05	0.7%	17	14.9	1.14×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.89	0.3%	7	8.3	0.84×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 65	$0.86	0.3%	7	7.7	0.90×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 66	$0.85	0.3%	4	7.6	0.52×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 87	$0.84	0.2%	7	5.8	1.21×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 96	$0.84	0.2%	5	5.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 179	$0.82	0.1%	3	2.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 195	$0.80	0.1%	3	2.6	1.15×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 245	$0.80	0.1%	2	2.1	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 186	$0.78	0.1%	3	2.7	1.10×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 178	$0.77	0.1%	4	2.8	1.41×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 159	$0.76	0.1%	3	3.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 104	$0.63	0.1%	3	4.9	0.62×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 117	$0.58	0.1%	6	4.3	1.38×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 101	$0.57	0.1%	1	5.0	0.20×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$0.55	0.2%	2	6.0	0.33×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 142	$0.53	0.1%	2	3.6	0.56×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 169	$0.52	0.1%	3	3.0	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 146	$0.51	0.1%	2	3.5	0.58×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 115	$0.50	0.1%	6	4.4	1.37×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 123	$0.49	0.1%	5	4.1	1.22×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 119	$0.49	0.1%	4	4.3	0.94×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/wildfire, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedя селфмейд$4.79$3.670.77x4h

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedя селфмейд$4.79$1.910.40x4h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FFя селфмейд$4.79$5.051.05x4h

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specPhylong$4.79$6.321.32x9h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecPhylong$4.79$3.210.67x9h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecPhylong$4.79$1.050.22x9h

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecPhylong$4.79$0.760.16x9h

FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPhylong$4.79$3.480.73x9h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPhylong$4.79$5.841.22x9h

Dual Berettas | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffPhylong$4.79$1.790.37x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	89.91%	125
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	90.35%	125
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	90.96%	125
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	90.75%	125
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	90.88%	125
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	90.34%	125
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	90.73%	125
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	90.46%	125
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	91.13%	125
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	89.73%	125
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	90.13%	125
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	90.18%	125
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	90.05%	125
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	90.47%	125
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	91.20%	125
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	90.58%	125
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	89.51%	125
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	90.49%	125
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	90.36%	125
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	90.07%	125
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	90.58%	125
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	90.11%	125
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	89.59%	125
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	90.89%	125
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	90.18%	125
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	90.05%	125
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	90.70%	125
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	89.76%	125
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	90.35%	125
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	89.89%	125

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.2%classified 5.0%covert 0.2%covert knife 0.1%Classified 0.5%Legendary 0.4%restricted 25.9%red 0.1%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#d32ce6 0.1%milspec 17.6%Restricted 4.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.2%Rare 1.8%mil spec 12.2%violet 6.2%#8847FF 3.5%#4b69ff 11.5%#8847ff 3.3%Mil Spec 2.2%best hit —