Your Favorite Case

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.65

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $0.60 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

127.87%

4,734 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

128.33%±5.90969 openings

7 days

128.22%±2.903,937 openings

30 days

127.87%±2.654,734 openings

since tracking started

127.87%±2.654,734 openings

91.5%113.3%135.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (125.23% – 130.52%, 4,734 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	969	128.33%±5.90	+12.1σ	odds
7d	3,937	128.22%±2.90	+24.5σ	odds
30d	4,734	127.87%±2.65	+26.5σ	odds
All	4,734	127.87%±2.65	+26.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,734 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 222	$4.03	3.0%	21	21.3	0.99×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 302	$3.44	1.9%	35	15.7	2.23×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 775	$3.13	0.7%	36	6.1	5.90×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 220	$3.03	2.3%	31	21.5	1.44×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 158	$2.78	2.9%	33	29.9	1.10×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 116	$2.49	3.6%	44	40.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 187	$2.25	2.0%	45	25.3	1.78×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 153	$2.09	2.3%	51	30.9	1.65×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$2.09	2.6%	52	35.8	1.45×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$1.88	2.6%	62	39.6	1.57×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 103	$1.86	3.0%	68	46.0	1.48×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 110	$1.70	2.6%	66	42.9	1.54×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 88	$1.51	2.9%	90	53.6	1.68×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 77	$1.34	2.9%	78	61.5	1.27×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 62	$1.32	3.5%	107	75.8	1.41×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$1.16	3.2%	137	78.9	1.74×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 51	$1.08	3.6%	146	93.7	1.56×
P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 64	$1.03	2.7%	134	74.5	1.80×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$0.76	2.9%	166	107.5	1.54×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 46	$0.75	2.7%	184	103.3	1.78×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · 1	1 in 44	$0.68	2.6%	154	106.8	1.44×
M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 37	$0.66	3.0%	177	129.5	1.37×
P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$0.66	2.9%	159	125.6	1.27×
CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 72	$0.64	1.5%	148	65.8	2.25×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$0.59	1.7%	112	81.1	1.38×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.59	1.7%	160	80.9	1.98×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 58	$0.59	1.7%	128	81.5	1.57×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$0.53	1.3%	160	71.8	2.23×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 55	$0.53	1.6%	139	86.3	1.61×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.52	1.6%	143	85.5	1.67×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$0.50	1.7%	155	95.5	1.62×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$0.47	2.0%	189	119.2	1.58×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.44	2.1%	189	133.3	1.42×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 30	$0.43	2.4%	244	158.1	1.54×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 26	$0.38	2.5%	278	183.4	1.52×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.37	2.7%	278	205.4	1.35×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$0.32	2.5%	327	225.3	1.45×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$0.23	2.3%	0	286.6	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 2	1 in 15	$0.19	2.1%	8	309.1	0.03×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.18	2.4%	0	373.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$0.15	2.1%	0	394.4	0.00×
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 14	$0.14	1.6%	0	330.7	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/yfc, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Naga (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted❦حب المال♂$0.65$1.832.82x28m

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted❦حب المال♂$0.65$2.073.18x28m

P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryновачок$0.65$1.522.34x28m

M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet❦حب المال♂$0.65$0.651.00x28m

P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted❦حب المال♂$0.65$0.751.15x28m

P90 | Neoqueen (Well-Worn)weapon · violet❦حب المال♂$0.65$0.480.74x28m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedmekthereal$0.65$0.510.78x30m

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffmekthereal$0.65$0.430.66x30m

P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendarydžuzeppe$0.65$1.522.34x44m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedJariksBariks$0.65$0.530.82x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.65	92.08%	42
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.65	92.01%	42
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.65	92.03%	42
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.65	92.01%	42
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.65	92.04%	42
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.65	92.03%	42
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.65	92.05%	42
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.65	92.04%	42
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.65	92.05%	42
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.65	92.08%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.65	92.04%	42
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.65	92.00%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.3%2 6.5%pink 1.5%restricted 14.7%#8847ff 3.8%violet 10.7%Classified 0.9%blue 1.0%Legendary 1.1%mil spec 11.5%Restricted 3.8%milspec 14.1%#4b69ff 1.7%Rare 5.6%industrial 13.9%#5e98d9 7.0%best hit —