Achroma Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$7.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $6.16 from 95 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.44%

65 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

53 openings · below min

30 days

65 openings · below min

since tracking started

65 openings · below min

-0.5%70.3%141.0%

Small sample. 65 openings and 21.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	60.07%±80.3	—	odds
7d	53	97.05%±22.4	—	odds
30d	65	89.44%±20.3	—	odds
All	65	89.44%±20.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values95 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100,000	$52.25	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$19.50	16.6%	3	3.4	0.88×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$12.14	16.6%	8	5.5	1.46×
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$10.50	16.6%	5	6.3	0.79×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$10.33	16.6%	8	6.4	1.24×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	10.0%	$10.21	16.6%	5	6.5	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	15.9%	$6.42	16.6%	9	10.4	0.87×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25,000	$5.24	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12,500	$2.90	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12,500	$2.84	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$2.33	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 10,000	$2.28	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 5,263	$1.20	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Creep (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,263	$1.19	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,263	$1.16	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 4,545	$1.04	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,167	$0.94	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,167	$0.92	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,704	$0.83	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,852	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,818	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,754	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,667	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,064	$0.24	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,031	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 1,020	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 1,020	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 1,020	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 935	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Creep (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 893	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Creep (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 885	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 893	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 893	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 885	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 800	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 800	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Creep (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 758	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 758	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 752	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Vendetta (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 709	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 356	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 356	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Sleet (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 355	$0.08	0.0%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 267	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 267	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 267	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Vendetta (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 267	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Vendetta (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 267	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Currents (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 267	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	1	0.4	—
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	0	0.4	—
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	1	0.4	—
Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 178	$0.04	0.0%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Vendetta (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Vendetta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
P250 \| Sleet (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
P250 \| Sleet (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Sleet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
M249 \| Sleet (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M249 \| Sleet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M249 \| Sleet (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M249 \| Sleet (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
M249 \| Sleet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	2	0.5	—
Nova \| Currents (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	2	0.5	—
Nova \| Currents (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Nova \| Currents (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Nova \| Currents (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	2	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
MP9 \| Dizzy (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	1	0.5	—
MP9 \| Dizzy (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP9 \| Dizzy (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP9 \| Dizzy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 133	$0.03	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 89	$0.02	0.0%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Dizzy (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 89	$0.02	0.0%	0	0.7	—
P250 \| Sleet (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 44	$0.01	0.0%	1	1.5	0.68×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/achroma-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · MythicalAxilis$7.00$6.420.92x11h

Nova | Currents (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9小木$7.00$0.030.00x12h

AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkINNNNho$7.00$10.331.48x14h

MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialINNNNho$7.00$0.040.01x14h

P250 | Sleet (Factory New)weapon · CommonPinguelinh0$7.00$0.080.01x1d

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalenzol_27$7.00$6.420.92x1d

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkrastamanik$7.00$12.241.75x1d

AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkrastamanik$7.00$10.441.49x1d

AWP | The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkrastamanik$7.00$10.681.53x1d

AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink𝕏𝕔𝕡𝕥𝕫$7.00$10.441.49x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$7.00	87.66%	95
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$7.00	88.00%	95

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.0%pink 33.3%Mythical 26.0%violet 0.1%#8847ff 0.0%#4b69ff 0.5%Rare 0.2%milspec 0.9%blue 0.1%Uncommon 2.3%#5e98d9 2.1%Common 4.6%industrial 7.1%blueLight 0.4%#b0c3d9 9.0%consumer 12.8%gray 0.8%best hit —