Arabesque Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $4.40 from 80 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.82%
303 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
36 openings · below min
7 days
61.49%±31.59246 openings
30 days
65.82%±28.23303 openings
since tracking started
65.82%±28.23303 openings
-0.5%68.3%137.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3652.27%±84.2—odds
7d24661.49%±31.6−1.6σodds
30d30365.82%±28.2−1.5σodds
All30365.82%±28.2−1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 303 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100,000$6310.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100,000$5900.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 100,000$2890.1%00.0—
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100,000$2720.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 100,000$1650.0%00.0—
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 100,000$1510.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 100,000$1060.0%00.0—
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 370$1066.5%00.8—
AWP | Sovereign Flame (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 326$93.146.5%00.9—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 313$89.336.5%01.0—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 278$79.276.5%01.10.00×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 151$43.096.5%12.00.50×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 90$25.726.5%73.42.08×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 74$21.136.5%44.10.98×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 56$16.036.5%65.41.11×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 56$15.946.5%65.41.10×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 53$15.116.5%35.70.52×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 52$15.006.5%65.81.04×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 34$9.636.5%59.00.56×
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 32$9.276.5%129.31.29×
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 31$8.756.5%79.90.71×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 26$7.566.5%1611.51.40×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 2,564$4.140.0%00.1—
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,500$4.060.0%10.1—
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 2,500$3.950.0%00.1—
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 2,381$3.780.0%00.1—
FAMAS | Snake Song (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 1,852$2.970.0%00.2—
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 1,724$2.750.0%00.2—
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 1,667$2.640.0%00.2—
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 1,639$2.610.0%00.2—
P250 | Lotus Imprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 1,562$2.500.0%00.2—
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 1,515$2.410.0%00.2—
Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 1,493$2.390.0%00.2—
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 1,389$2.220.0%10.2—
Tec-9 | Sultan (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 1,370$2.170.0%00.2—
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 746$1.190.0%20.4—
FAMAS | Snake Song (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 694$1.110.0%10.4—
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 633$1.010.0%10.5—
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 633$1.010.0%00.5—
Tec-9 | Sultan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 625$1.000.0%10.5—
MP9 | Dune Asp (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 521$0.830.0%10.6—
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 444$0.710.0%10.7—
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 418$0.670.0%00.7—
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 420$0.670.0%00.7—
Nova | Morning Sun (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 408$0.650.0%10.7—
Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 402$0.640.0%10.8—
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 319$0.510.0%00.9—
FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 319$0.510.0%00.9—
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 301$0.480.0%11.00.99×
Tec-9 | Sultan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 288$0.460.0%01.10.00×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 219$0.350.0%11.40.72×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 219$0.350.0%01.40.00×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 213$0.340.0%11.40.70×
MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 181$0.290.0%11.70.60×
FAMAS | Snake Song (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 182$0.290.0%11.70.60×
Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 182$0.290.0%21.71.20×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 113$0.180.0%52.71.86×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 100$0.160.0%23.00.66×
Nova | Morning Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 100$0.160.0%23.00.66×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 100$0.160.0%53.01.65×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 94$0.150.0%43.21.24×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 88$0.140.0%63.51.74×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 56$0.090.0%55.40.93×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 56$0.090.0%85.41.49×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 56$0.090.0%45.40.74×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 50$0.080.0%36.00.50×
Nova | Morning Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 50$0.080.0%156.02.48×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 50$0.080.0%56.00.83×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 38$0.060.0%138.11.61×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 25$0.040.0%1212.10.99×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.040.0%1312.11.08×
Five-SeveN | Desert Seal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.040.0%912.10.74×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.040.0%512.10.41×
MP9 | Dune Asp (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.040.0%1112.10.91×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.040.0%1612.11.32×
Nova | Morning Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 25$0.040.0%1212.10.99×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 25$0.040.0%1012.10.83×
PP-Bizon | Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 19$0.030.0%1216.10.74×
SCAR-20 | Sirocco Script (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 19$0.030.0%1616.10.99×
Nova | Morning Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 19$0.030.0%1916.11.18×
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/arabesque-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$5.0088.00%80
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC$5.0087.99%80
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$5.0088.42%80
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$5.0087.99%80
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$5.0088.01%80
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$5.0087.99%80
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$5.0087.97%80
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$5.0087.99%80
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$5.0088.00%80
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$5.0087.98%80
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC$5.0087.99%80
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.9%classified 1.0%violet 12.7%Legendary 1.4%restricted 2.0%pink 3.7%milspec 7.1%#4b69ff 0.6%blue 1.2%Uncommon 1.4%industrial 34.1%Rare 0.3%#5e98d9 33.7%best hit —