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Ascent Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $1.76 from 140 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.59%
1,174 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
96.59%±22.54143 openings
7 days
86.75%±8.551,002 openings
30 days
86.59%±7.911,174 openings
since tracking started
86.59%±7.911,174 openings
73.5%96.8%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h14396.59%±22.5+0.7σodds
7d1,00286.75%±8.55−0.3σodds
30d1,17486.59%±7.91−0.3σodds
All1,17486.59%±7.91−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,174 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 100,000$34.640.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 101$15.788.9%1011.70.86×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 76$11.948.9%1615.41.04×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 56$8.778.9%2921.01.38×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 38$5.958.9%3231.01.03×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 29$4.618.9%2840.00.70×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified1 in 29$4.518.9%4240.91.03×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 22$3.498.9%4352.90.81×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 22$3.438.9%4953.80.91×
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 21$3.278.9%5156.40.90×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$3.158.9%6258.61.06×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 18$2.848.9%6565.01.00×
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 7,143$1.690.0%00.2—
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 4,762$1.190.0%00.2—
P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 4,167$1.040.0%10.3—
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 4,167$1.030.0%00.3—
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 4,167$1.020.0%00.3—
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 3,448$0.840.0%10.3—
USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 3,125$0.760.0%00.4—
USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,857$0.710.0%10.4—
USP-S | Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 2,703$0.650.0%00.4—
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 2,500$0.610.0%20.5—
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 2,174$0.530.0%10.5—
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 2,174$0.530.0%20.5—
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 2,083$0.510.0%10.6—
Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 1,818$0.450.0%10.6—
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 1,818$0.440.0%00.6—
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 1,786$0.430.0%00.7—
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 1,408$0.340.0%20.8—
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 1,316$0.320.0%10.9—
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 1,149$0.280.0%01.00.00×
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 1,020$0.250.0%01.20.00×
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 980$0.240.0%01.20.00×
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 980$0.240.0%01.20.00×
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 943$0.230.0%01.20.00×
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 943$0.230.0%21.21.61×
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 943$0.230.0%01.20.00×
P90 | Reef Grief (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 943$0.230.0%21.21.61×
P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 943$0.230.0%01.20.00×
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 943$0.230.0%41.23.21×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 935$0.230.0%01.30.00×
Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common1 in 943$0.230.0%21.21.61×
Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 943$0.230.0%11.20.80×
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 901$0.220.0%21.31.53×
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 901$0.220.0%31.32.30×
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 901$0.220.0%31.32.30×
P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 901$0.220.0%21.31.53×
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 901$0.220.0%01.30.00×
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 741$0.180.0%41.62.52×
Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 735$0.180.0%01.60.00×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 613$0.150.0%11.90.52×
MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 490$0.120.0%72.42.92×
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 408$0.100.0%32.91.04×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 410$0.100.0%12.90.35×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Well-Worn)weapon · common1 in 410$0.100.0%32.91.05×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common1 in 408$0.100.0%12.90.35×
Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 410$0.100.0%32.91.05×
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 408$0.100.0%32.91.04×
Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 369$0.090.0%43.21.26×
Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 327$0.080.0%23.60.56×
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 328$0.080.0%43.61.12×
Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 328$0.080.0%43.61.12×
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 327$0.080.0%43.61.11×
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 328$0.080.0%63.61.68×
Sawed-Off | Runoff (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 328$0.080.0%23.60.56×
SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 287$0.070.0%54.11.22×
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 246$0.060.0%44.80.84×
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 246$0.060.0%54.81.05×
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue1 in 246$0.060.0%24.80.42×
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%87.21.12×
Negev | Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%87.21.12×
Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight1 in 164$0.040.0%57.20.70×
Negev | Sour Grapes (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%47.20.56×
Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 164$0.040.0%77.20.98×
Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common1 in 164$0.040.0%117.21.53×
Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%57.20.70×
Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%47.20.56×
Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%47.20.56×
Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common1 in 164$0.040.0%77.20.98×
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 164$0.040.0%77.20.98×
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%77.20.98×
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%87.21.12×
Nova | Turquoise Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 164$0.040.0%37.20.42×
Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%117.21.53×
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 164$0.040.0%37.20.42×
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 164$0.040.0%27.20.28×
P250 | Plum Netting (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 164$0.040.0%77.20.98×
MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 164$0.040.0%87.21.12×
MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 164$0.040.0%67.20.84×
Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 164$0.040.0%67.20.84×
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon1 in 123$0.030.0%69.60.63×
Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 123$0.030.0%109.61.05×
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 123$0.030.0%149.61.46×
MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
MP9 | Buff Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common1 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
MP9 | Buff Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common1 in 123$0.030.0%139.61.36×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%149.61.46×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%119.61.15×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%169.61.67×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%119.61.15×
SG 553 | Night Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%109.61.05×
SG 553 | Night Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
SG 553 | Night Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%69.60.63×
SG 553 | Night Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%169.61.67×
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common1 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%59.60.52×
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%109.61.05×
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
P90 | Blue Tac (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
P90 | Blue Tac (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
P90 | Blue Tac (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%59.60.52×
P90 | Blue Tac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%119.61.15×
P250 | Plum Netting (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%189.61.88×
P250 | Plum Netting (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
P250 | Plum Netting (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%119.61.15×
Sawed-Off | Runoff (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common1 in 123$0.030.0%109.61.05×
Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested)weapon · grey1 in 123$0.030.0%109.61.05×
Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
Sawed-Off | Runoff (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%29.60.21×
MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%139.61.36×
MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%149.61.46×
MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · common1 in 123$0.030.0%69.60.63×
MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%149.61.46×
MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%169.61.67×
MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%169.61.67×
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%79.60.73×
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%149.61.46×
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%149.61.46×
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%89.60.84×
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 123$0.030.0%119.61.15×
Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%99.60.94×
Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Well-Worn)weapon · Common1 in 123$0.030.0%79.60.73×
Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray1 in 123$0.030.0%159.61.57×
Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 123$0.030.0%139.61.36×
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/ascent-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetPsychoMantis23$2.00$2.841.42x
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalPsychoMantis23$2.00$8.774.39x
Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9PsychoMantis23$2.00$0.040.02x
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedPsychoMantis23$2.00$3.271.64x
Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · grayPsychoMantis23$2.00$0.030.02x
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9PsychoMantis23$2.00$0.040.02x
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violetTechN9ne$2.00$3.431.72x
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · ClassifiedFughu$2.00$4.512.26x
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Well-Worn)weapon · commonShamanas$2.00$0.100.05x
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalShamanas$2.00$3.491.75x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$2.0088.00%140
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$2.0088.00%140
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$2.0088.00%140
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$2.0088.00%140
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$2.0088.00%140
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$2.0087.99%140
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$2.0088.00%140
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$2.0088.00%140
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$2.0088.00%140
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC$2.0088.00%140
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.0%Mythical 14.9%classified 6.1%rare 3.4%Classified 3.5%violet 10.1%#4b69ff 0.1%Rare 0.1%uncommon 0.2%blue 1.0%restricted 0.1%Uncommon 2.5%#5e98d9 9.9%milspec 0.6%common 4.3%industrial 2.8%#b0c3d9 20.2%Common 3.0%consumer 7.4%light blue 1.0%blueLight 0.6%gray 7.3%grey 0.8%best hit —