Black Panther

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

88.03%

EV $5.28 from 165 items

Observed RTP, 30d

59.90%

233 openings, odds method

Variance

5.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

21 openings · below min

7 days

68.09%±27.45193 openings

30 days

59.90%±22.86233 openings

since tracking started

59.90%±22.86233 openings

5.0%73.5%142.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	21	73.39%±68.0	—	odds
7d	193	68.09%±27.4	−0.3σ	odds
30d	233	59.90%±22.9	−0.5σ	odds
All	233	59.90%±22.9	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values165 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 233 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$374	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$286	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$178	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$172	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,348	$162	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$160	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,846	$139	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,571	$129	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$128	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$127	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$126	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$121	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$118	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,030	$110	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$98.92	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,703	$96.71	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,564	$93.44	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$93.40	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$85.62	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$85.44	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$81.51	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$81.42	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$80.50	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,174	$80.27	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,222	$80.23	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$71.39	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$70.33	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,887	$68.03	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$67.58	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,852	$66.92	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$66.01	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,818	$65.72	0.7%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,786	$65.15	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,786	$64.85	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,786	$63.77	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$62.89	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,538	$55.73	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,538	$55.55	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,538	$55.14	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$53.32	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$49.67	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$49.18	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,282	$46.45	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 1,250	$45.53	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$43.87	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,205	$43.62	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,205	$43.42	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$43.12	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$42.72	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,176	$42.46	0.7%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,163	$41.82	0.7%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,124	$41.01	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,087	$39.42	0.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,087	$39.30	0.7%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,064	$38.77	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,064	$38.48	0.7%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$36.28	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 980	$35.71	0.7%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$35.65	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 952	$34.60	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$30.50	0.7%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 806	$29.19	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 806	$29.16	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 775	$28.15	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 769	$27.97	0.7%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 763	$27.73	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 741	$26.75	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 725	$26.23	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 719	$26.14	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 719	$26.13	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 714	$25.74	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 704	$25.48	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 699	$25.21	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 699	$25.20	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 690	$25.02	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 690	$24.94	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 690	$24.94	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 649	$23.56	0.7%	1	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 654	$23.55	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 641	$23.20	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 637	$23.18	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 637	$23.09	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 621	$22.51	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 581	$21.08	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 575	$20.85	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 568	$20.51	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 526	$19.00	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 515	$18.60	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 500	$18.08	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 498	$17.95	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 476	$17.24	0.7%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 469	$16.96	0.7%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 457	$16.50	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 435	$15.75	0.7%	1	0.5	—
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 420	$15.18	0.7%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 392	$14.25	0.7%	0	0.6	—
AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 394	$14.25	0.7%	0	0.6	—
P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 391	$14.12	0.7%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 385	$13.88	0.7%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 377	$13.66	0.7%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 368	$13.32	0.7%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 365	$13.25	0.7%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$12.68	0.7%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 348	$12.60	0.7%	0	0.7	—
FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 340	$12.35	0.7%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 338	$12.23	0.7%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 336	$12.14	0.7%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 336	$12.12	0.7%	1	0.7	—
FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 330	$11.93	0.7%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 319	$11.56	0.7%	0	0.7	—
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 316	$11.44	0.7%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 315	$11.43	0.7%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 315	$11.42	0.7%	2	0.7	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 312	$11.28	0.7%	3	0.7	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 312	$11.28	0.7%	0	0.7	—
P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 310	$11.22	0.7%	1	0.8	—
P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 309	$11.18	0.7%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 309	$11.17	0.7%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 296	$10.70	0.7%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 265	$9.59	0.7%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 265	$9.57	0.7%	2	0.9	—
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 256	$9.29	0.7%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 255	$9.22	0.7%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 252	$9.12	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 197	$7.13	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 197	$7.13	0.7%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 195	$7.06	0.7%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 194	$7.03	0.7%	1	1.2	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 175	$6.34	0.7%	1	1.3	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 166	$6.00	0.7%	2	1.4	1.42×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 159	$5.78	0.7%	1	1.5	0.68×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 313	$4.94	0.3%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 308	$4.87	0.3%	3	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 299	$4.74	0.3%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 292	$4.61	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 279	$4.41	0.3%	1	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 275	$4.36	0.3%	1	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 270	$4.27	0.3%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 203	$3.22	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
AUG \| Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 173	$2.74	0.3%	2	1.3	1.49×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 172	$2.72	0.3%	3	1.4	2.22×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 158	$2.50	0.3%	3	1.5	2.03×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 154	$2.44	0.3%	2	1.5	1.32×
AUG \| Plague (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 113	$1.79	0.3%	2	2.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 103	$1.63	0.3%	4	2.3	1.77×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 99	$1.56	0.3%	5	2.4	2.12×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$1.12	0.3%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 70	$1.11	0.3%	2	3.3	0.60×
AUG \| Plague (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 67	$1.06	0.3%	6	3.5	1.73×
AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$1.01	0.3%	7	3.6	1.92×
MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 56	$0.88	0.3%	2	4.2	0.48×
AUG \| Plague (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 52	$0.82	0.3%	4	4.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 46	$0.72	0.3%	4	5.1	0.78×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.50	0.3%	12	7.4	1.63×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 30	$0.47	0.3%	4	7.8	0.51×
MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 28	$0.45	0.3%	9	8.2	1.10×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.44	0.3%	7	8.4	0.84×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 27	$0.43	0.3%	11	8.6	1.28×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 27	$0.42	0.3%	2	8.8	0.23×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 26	$0.41	0.3%	11	9.0	1.22×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$0.38	0.3%	9	9.7	0.93×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 21	$0.34	0.3%	7	10.8	0.65×
MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.21	0.3%	16	17.5	0.91×
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.20	0.3%	18	18.4	0.98×
MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.18	0.3%	19	20.5	0.93×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/black-panther, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

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AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted♱ ᴋɪᴄᴏᴊʙᴛ$6.00$2.440.41x2h

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCIASNA ANIA skins.army$6.00$16.962.83x3h

USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red0,7?$6.00$41.826.97x3h

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueEUROMefkaRozpieszcza$6.00$0.380.06x3h

MP9 | Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare007$30.00$0.210.01x5h

MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · bluehgdeleon$6.00$0.200.03x8h

AUG | Plague (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMzedu3 PORK$19.00$1.010.05x11h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecMAX$6.00$7.031.17x12h

MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blueim high ($6.00$0.200.03x13h

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedСкрытый пул$30.00$2.440.08x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	165
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	165
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.00	87.95%	165
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	87.95%	165
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.00	88.06%	165
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.00	88.04%	165
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	165
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	165
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.00	88.04%	165
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$6.00	88.14%	165
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.00	88.07%	165
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	165

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 2.6%classified 7.3%restricted 4.8%Legendary 2.2%red 0.3%Ancient 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.0%covert 0.5%Classified 0.4%Covert 0.1%blue 32.5%milspec 20.0%Rare 14.3%Mil Spec Grade 4.9%Mythical 1.9%#4b69ff 3.8%violet 0.7%#8847ff 0.4%#d32ee6 0.5%pink 0.4%Mil Spec 2.2%best hit —