Blitzkrieg

A case on Hellcase (first-strike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.35

Advertised RTP

86.04%

EV $0.30 from 174 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.96%

18.9K openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.15%±9.302,304 openings

7 days

85.41%±3.6115.6K openings

30 days

84.96%±3.2918.9K openings

since tracking started

84.96%±3.2918.9K openings

70.0%80.0%90.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,304	80.15%±9.30	−0.7σ	odds
7d	15.6K	85.41%±3.61	+0.5σ	odds
30d	18.9K	84.96%±3.29	+0.4σ	odds
All	18.9K	84.96%±3.29	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values174 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$49.75	0.7%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33,333	$47.97	0.5%	0	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$28.27	0.6%	2	1.1	1.76×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$19.82	0.6%	4	1.7	2.35×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$18.49	0.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$18.10	0.5%	2	1.7	1.17×
P2000 \| Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 10,000	$16.84	0.6%	4	1.9	2.11×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$15.29	0.5%	1	1.9	0.53×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 8,333	$14.40	0.6%	3	2.3	1.32×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,333	$14.16	0.6%	3	2.3	1.32×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 8,333	$13.94	0.6%	5	2.3	2.20×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$13.82	0.6%	0	2.3	0.00×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$13.52	0.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 7,692	$12.61	0.5%	2	2.5	0.81×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$10.27	0.5%	5	3.0	1.65×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$7.18	0.5%	3	4.4	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,167	$7.02	0.6%	3	4.5	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$7.00	0.5%	3	4.4	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$6.77	0.6%	8	4.7	1.69×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$6.56	0.6%	1	4.9	0.20×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,226	$5.47	0.6%	12	5.9	2.05×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,778	$4.63	0.6%	6	6.8	0.88×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,564	$4.37	0.6%	10	7.4	1.36×
P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,273	$3.82	0.6%	7	8.3	0.84×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,174	$3.62	0.6%	6	8.7	0.69×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,562	$2.57	0.5%	9	12.1	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,515	$2.52	0.6%	6	12.5	0.48×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,449	$2.42	0.6%	13	13.1	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,408	$2.36	0.6%	8	13.4	0.60×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,389	$2.34	0.6%	14	13.6	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,299	$2.18	0.6%	20	14.6	1.37×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,266	$2.12	0.6%	16	14.9	1.07×
MP7 \| Mischief (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,176	$1.98	0.6%	18	16.1	1.12×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,053	$1.74	0.5%	18	18.0	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 917	$1.53	0.6%	22	20.6	1.07×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 885	$1.47	0.6%	26	21.4	1.22×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 826	$1.38	0.6%	22	22.9	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 820	$1.36	0.6%	26	23.1	1.13×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 794	$1.32	0.6%	17	23.8	0.71×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 735	$1.23	0.6%	25	25.7	0.97×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$1.23	0.6%	24	25.5	0.94×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 735	$1.23	0.6%	22	25.7	0.85×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 730	$1.22	0.6%	22	25.9	0.85×
Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 735	$1.22	0.6%	33	25.7	1.28×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 709	$1.18	0.6%	33	26.7	1.24×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 704	$1.17	0.6%	28	26.9	1.04×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 690	$1.15	0.6%	37	27.4	1.35×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 676	$1.13	0.6%	40	28.0	1.43×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 667	$1.11	0.6%	31	28.4	1.09×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 641	$1.07	0.6%	24	29.5	0.81×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 633	$1.06	0.6%	28	29.9	0.94×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 613	$1.02	0.6%	29	30.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 588	$0.98	0.6%	32	32.2	0.99×
P2000 \| Turf (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 575	$0.96	0.6%	25	32.9	0.76×
P250 \| Small Game (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 568	$0.95	0.6%	34	33.3	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 529	$0.88	0.6%	38	35.8	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 505	$0.84	0.6%	40	37.5	1.07×
P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 493	$0.82	0.6%	36	38.4	0.94×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 481	$0.80	0.6%	39	39.4	0.99×
P2000 \| Turf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 474	$0.79	0.6%	49	39.9	1.23×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 474	$0.79	0.6%	43	39.9	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 455	$0.76	0.6%	30	41.6	0.72×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 457	$0.76	0.6%	52	41.4	1.25×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 457	$0.76	0.6%	48	41.4	1.16×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 455	$0.76	0.6%	33	41.6	0.79×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 444	$0.74	0.6%	41	42.6	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 439	$0.73	0.6%	53	43.1	1.23×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 439	$0.73	0.6%	35	43.1	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 431	$0.72	0.6%	40	43.9	0.91×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 426	$0.71	0.6%	42	44.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 426	$0.71	0.6%	47	44.5	1.06×
P2000 \| Turf (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 420	$0.70	0.6%	40	45.0	0.89×
P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 408	$0.68	0.6%	53	46.4	1.14×
P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 408	$0.68	0.6%	42	46.4	0.91×
P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 408	$0.68	0.6%	43	46.4	0.93×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 408	$0.68	0.6%	48	46.4	1.04×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 402	$0.67	0.6%	38	47.1	0.81×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 395	$0.66	0.6%	47	47.9	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 389	$0.65	0.6%	39	48.6	0.80×
P250 \| Ripple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 383	$0.64	0.6%	69	49.4	1.40×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 372	$0.62	0.6%	46	50.9	0.90×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 372	$0.62	0.6%	23	50.9	0.45×
MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 330	$0.55	0.6%	72	57.3	1.26×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 324	$0.54	0.6%	53	58.5	0.91×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 312	$0.52	0.6%	69	60.7	1.14×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 312	$0.52	0.6%	68	60.7	1.12×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 307	$0.51	0.6%	50	61.7	0.81×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 306	$0.51	0.6%	57	61.9	0.92×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 299	$0.50	0.6%	66	63.2	1.04×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 300	$0.50	0.6%	66	63.0	1.05×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 300	$0.50	0.6%	58	63.0	0.92×
P250 \| Small Game (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 288	$0.48	0.6%	68	65.7	1.04×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 276	$0.46	0.6%	57	68.5	0.83×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 276	$0.46	0.6%	78	68.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 264	$0.44	0.6%	75	71.7	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 264	$0.44	0.6%	72	71.7	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 264	$0.44	0.6%	86	71.7	1.20×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 264	$0.44	0.6%	82	71.7	1.14×
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 264	$0.44	0.6%	85	71.7	1.19×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 264	$0.44	0.6%	76	71.7	1.06×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 258	$0.43	0.6%	68	73.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 252	$0.42	0.6%	90	75.1	1.20×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 252	$0.42	0.6%	79	75.1	1.05×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 246	$0.41	0.6%	78	76.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 246	$0.41	0.6%	78	76.8	1.02×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 246	$0.41	0.6%	65	77.0	0.84×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 246	$0.41	0.6%	59	77.0	0.77×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 240	$0.40	0.6%	95	78.9	1.20×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 240	$0.40	0.6%	71	78.9	0.90×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 240	$0.40	0.6%	67	78.9	0.85×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 228	$0.38	0.6%	78	83.1	0.94×
Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 228	$0.38	0.6%	82	83.1	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 228	$0.38	0.6%	87	83.1	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 228	$0.38	0.6%	94	82.9	1.13×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 228	$0.38	0.6%	87	83.1	1.05×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 228	$0.38	0.6%	91	83.1	1.10×
MP7 \| Mischief (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 222	$0.37	0.6%	82	85.1	0.96×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 216	$0.36	0.6%	70	87.6	0.80×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 216	$0.36	0.6%	101	87.6	1.15×
P250 \| Small Game (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 210	$0.35	0.6%	82	90.2	0.91×
P250 \| Small Game (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 210	$0.35	0.6%	86	90.1	0.95×
P250 \| Small Game (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 198	$0.33	0.6%	93	95.5	0.97×
MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 186	$0.31	0.6%	121	101.6	1.19×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 186	$0.31	0.6%	108	101.8	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 186	$0.31	0.6%	102	101.8	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 159	$0.30	0.6%	150	119.2	1.26×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 159	$0.30	0.6%	114	119.2	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 159	$0.30	0.6%	132	119.2	1.11×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 154	$0.29	0.6%	131	123.2	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 154	$0.29	0.6%	128	123.2	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 138	$0.26	0.6%	137	137.5	1.00×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 132	$0.25	0.6%	140	143.0	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 127	$0.24	0.6%	136	149.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 122	$0.23	0.6%	162	155.5	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 116	$0.22	0.6%	163	162.5	1.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 111	$0.21	0.6%	155	170.3	0.91×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 111	$0.21	0.6%	164	170.3	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 111	$0.21	0.6%	160	170.3	0.94×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 106	$0.20	0.6%	184	178.8	1.03×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 106	$0.20	0.6%	158	178.6	0.88×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 106	$0.20	0.6%	188	178.8	1.05×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 106	$0.20	0.6%	174	178.8	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 106	$0.20	0.6%	220	178.8	1.23×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 95	$0.18	0.6%	190	198.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 90	$0.17	0.6%	209	210.2	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 85	$0.16	0.6%	220	223.6	0.98×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 79	$0.15	0.6%	282	238.4	1.18×
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 79	$0.15	0.6%	241	238.4	1.01×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 74	$0.14	0.6%	304	255.4	1.19×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.14	0.6%	263	255.4	1.03×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 69	$0.13	0.6%	296	274.9	1.08×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.13	0.6%	280	274.9	1.02×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.13	0.6%	232	274.9	0.84×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.12	0.6%	245	297.8	0.82×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	330	298.0	1.11×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	346	298.0	1.16×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	323	298.0	1.08×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	295	298.0	0.99×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	294	298.0	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.12	0.6%	314	297.8	1.05×
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	324	298.0	1.09×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 63	$0.12	0.6%	314	298.0	1.05×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	368	357.6	1.03×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	356	357.6	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	363	357.6	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	351	357.4	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	367	357.4	1.03×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	375	357.6	1.05×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 53	$0.10	0.6%	317	357.6	0.89×
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.08	0.6%	435	446.9	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.08	0.6%	447	446.9	1.00×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.06	0.6%	553	596.0	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.6%	904	893.8	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.6%	686	894.0	0.77×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/blitzkrieg, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classifiedRage$0.35$29.7284.91x5d

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classifiedNemesis$0.35$27.7179.17x18h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedKszymek$0.35$20.0657.31x5d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedelmostafez$0.35$20.0657.31x5d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedvi$$i$0.35$20.0657.31x8d

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedspeak the words$0.35$19.8256.63x3d

P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rareranger_samurai77$0.35$19.2655.03x1d

P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · RareTAO0912$0.35$19.2655.03x2d

P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · RareMomofufukoko$0.35$19.2655.03x3d

P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · RareUSE CODE : daraid$0.35$19.0854.51x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specHyskade$0.35$0.401.14x4m

Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialShippeur$0.35$0.040.11x5m

Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecZurda de Olise$0.35$0.290.83x5m

SSG 08 | Memorial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspeczleep3rr$0.35$0.120.34x11m

P2000 | Gnarled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffShippeur$0.35$0.120.34x12m

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specShippeur$0.35$0.621.77x12m

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec GradeAli Kingston$0.35$0.100.29x13m

Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialFughu$0.35$0.080.23x13m

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffFughu$0.35$0.431.23x13m

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · RareAnnaaaaa-$0.35$0.140.40x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$0.35	86.04%	174
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$0.35	86.06%	174
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.35	85.91%	174
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$0.35	85.89%	174
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$0.35	85.92%	174
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.35	86.09%	174
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.35	86.06%	174
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$0.35	85.97%	174
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.35	86.02%	174
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.35	86.07%	174

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.7%3 0.2%covert 0.0%restricted 1.1%classified 0.2%Rare 9.9%pink 0.1%Legendary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%mil spec 8.0%#8847ff 0.2%#4b69ff 20.1%Classified 0.1%milspec 26.4%violet 0.2%blue 11.9%Mythical 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 5.1%industrial 15.4%best hit $29.72 (84.91x)