Boreal Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $2.64 from 145 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.74%

239 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

52.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

32 openings · below min

7 days

74.60%±15.98195 openings

30 days

77.74%±14.46239 openings

since tracking started

77.74%±14.46239 openings

38.0%78.0%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	32	78.06%±39.3	—	odds
7d	195	74.60%±16.0	−1.6σ	odds
30d	239	77.74%±14.5	−1.4σ	odds
All	239	77.74%±14.5	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values145 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$33.86	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 45	$16.63	14.1%	3	5.4	0.56×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 22	$8.26	14.1%	3	10.8	0.28×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 21	$7.76	14.1%	14	11.5	1.22×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$5.10	14.1%	20	17.5	1.14×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$4.70	14.1%	16	19.0	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare	10.3%	$3.64	14.1%	26	24.5	1.06×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	10.3%	$3.62	14.1%	25	24.6	1.01×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12,500	$2.40	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 10,000	$1.97	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 9,091	$1.75	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 7,143	$1.39	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,556	$1.01	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 5,000	$0.97	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,000	$0.96	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,762	$0.92	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,545	$0.88	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 4,545	$0.88	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,348	$0.82	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,167	$0.80	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,348	$0.80	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 4,000	$0.76	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 3,704	$0.72	0.0%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,500	$0.47	0.0%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 2,381	$0.46	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 2,222	$0.42	0.0%	1	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Copperflage (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,128	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 1,961	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,961	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,818	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,205	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 1,205	$0.23	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 1,149	$0.22	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,099	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.2	—
XM1014 \| Copperflage (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,099	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 943	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 893	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 885	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 893	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 893	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · common	1 in 833	$0.16	0.0%	1	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 840	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 629	$0.12	0.0%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 629	$0.12	0.0%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 521	$0.10	0.0%	2	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 521	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Copperflage (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Copperflage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Copperflage (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 524	$0.10	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 472	$0.09	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 418	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.6	—
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 418	$0.08	0.0%	1	0.6	—
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 418	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.6	—
R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 418	$0.08	0.0%	1	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 418	$0.08	0.0%	1	0.6	—
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 366	$0.07	0.0%	1	0.7	—
P2000 \| Marsh (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 366	$0.07	0.0%	0	0.7	—
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 366	$0.07	0.0%	1	0.7	—
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 366	$0.07	0.0%	1	0.7	—
MP9 \| Pine (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 314	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 314	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 313	$0.06	0.0%	1	0.8	—
FAMAS \| Palm (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 314	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 314	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.1	2.63×
R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
P2000 \| Marsh (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
P2000 \| Marsh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Marsh (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.1	2.63×
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.1	2.63×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.1	2.63×
P250 \| Copper Oxide (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.1	2.63×
AUG \| Commando Company (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.1	1.75×
G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 209	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.1	2.63×
SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.32×
Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	4	1.5	2.63×
Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
MP9 \| Pine (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
MP9 \| Pine (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
MP9 \| Pine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
MP9 \| Pine (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
P250 \| Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Copper Oxide (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Copper Oxide (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Copper Oxide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.32×
Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Palm (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
FAMAS \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
FAMAS \| Palm (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
AUG \| Commando Company (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
AUG \| Commando Company (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
AUG \| Commando Company (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
AUG \| Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	5	1.5	3.28×
MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
M249 \| Sage Camo (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
M249 \| Sage Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
M249 \| Sage Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
M249 \| Sage Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
M249 \| Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	4	1.5	2.63×
G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.5	1.97×
G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Well-Worn)weapon · Common	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 157	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/boreal-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9PsychoMantis23$3.00$0.030.01x20m

AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · bluePsychoMantis23$3.00$4.701.57x20m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffPsychoMantis23$3.00$5.101.70x26m

AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rarePsychoMantis23$3.00$7.762.59x27m

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rareⒶbμMαrcel$3.00$3.641.21x4h

AUG | Commando Company (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9SoLaRiP_Sauyzma$3.00$0.030.01x6h

P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9✦Big beef✦$3.00$0.040.01x10h

G3SG1 | Green Cell (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9MARKO$3.00$0.040.01x13h

AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · UncommonMARKO$3.00$0.100.03x13h

AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rareAhfe$3.00$7.762.59x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	145

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 15.1%#d32ce6 17.1%#8847ff 7.5%blue 8.4%uncommon 0.0%#4b69ff 1.5%Uncommon 2.1%Rare 0.3%#5e98d9 9.5%common 1.7%industrial 2.3%blueLight 0.2%milspec 0.2%#b0c3d9 31.2%consumer 1.9%Common 1.3%best hit —