Bowie Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$160.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $140.81 from 156 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.75%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
1 openings · below min
7 days
5 openings · below min
30 days
6 openings · below min
since tracking started
6 openings · below min
-0.5%78.0%156.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h152.83%±103.0—odds
7d582.96%±46.3—odds
30d699.75%±42.3—odds
All699.75%±42.3—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values156 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 503$6881.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 429$5891.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 324$4441.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 319$4381.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 315$4321.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 283$3881.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 270$3691.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 268$3671.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 256$3511.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 243$3331.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 239$3271.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 233$3191.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 233$3191.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 229$3131.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 223$3051.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 215$2941.0%10.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 205$2811.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 201$2751.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 201$2751.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 200$2741.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 198$2711.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 195$2671.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 189$2591.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 186$2551.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 184$2521.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 182$2501.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 182$2491.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 179$2451.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 174$2381.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 173$2371.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 171$2341.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 170$2331.0%10.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 163$2231.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 162$2221.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 159$2181.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 151$2071.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 151$2061.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 148$2031.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 147$2011.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 146$2001.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 143$1961.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 138$1891.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 138$1881.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 134$1841.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 133$1821.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 129$1761.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 128$1761.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 128$1751.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 124$1691.0%10.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 123$1681.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 122$1671.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 122$1661.0%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 120$1641.0%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 120$1641.0%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 119$1631.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 118$1621.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 114$1561.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 114$1561.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 114$1561.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 110$1511.0%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 108$1481.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 108$1471.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 105$1441.0%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 103$1411.0%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 243$1400.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 234$1350.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 228$1320.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 228$1320.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 226$1300.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 225$1300.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 221$1280.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 220$1270.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 216$1250.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 214$1240.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 212$1230.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 209$1210.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 209$1210.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 208$1200.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 202$1170.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 201$1160.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 194$1120.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 194$1120.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 193$1120.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 191$1100.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 190$1100.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 190$1100.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 189$1090.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 188$1090.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 187$1080.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 184$1060.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 183$1060.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 183$1060.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 182$1060.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 182$1050.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 181$1050.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 180$1040.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 179$1030.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 178$1030.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 177$1020.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 177$1020.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 175$1010.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 175$1010.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 173$99.780.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 167$96.310.4%10.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 165$95.230.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 163$93.930.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 157$90.880.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 156$89.870.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 154$88.850.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 153$88.720.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert1 in 152$88.010.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal1 in 146$84.530.4%10.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 146$84.450.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 146$84.110.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 145$84.000.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 145$83.850.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 142$81.800.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 141$81.480.4%10.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 141$81.480.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 140$80.840.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 139$80.540.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 139$80.480.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 139$80.090.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 139$80.010.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 136$78.890.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 136$78.880.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 136$78.670.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert1 in 136$78.470.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 136$78.260.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 134$77.570.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 133$76.900.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 132$76.530.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 130$75.360.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 129$74.700.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 129$74.630.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 128$73.790.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 126$72.940.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 126$72.560.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 125$72.530.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert1 in 125$72.390.4%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 125$72.120.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 124$71.650.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 119$69.040.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 117$67.750.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 116$67.160.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 116$67.100.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 115$66.610.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 115$66.550.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 115$66.130.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 113$65.360.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 112$64.900.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 112$64.620.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 108$62.200.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 107$61.900.4%00.1—
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd7001 in 107$61.670.4%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 104$60.040.4%00.1—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/bowie, 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$16088.00%156
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC$16088.00%156
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$16088.00%156
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$16088.00%156
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$16088.00%156
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$16088.00%156
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$16088.00%156
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$16088.00%156
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$16088.00%156
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC$16087.96%156
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$16088.00%156
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC$16088.00%156
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 60.1%covert 26.6%Covert 2.6%Immortal 3.4%#ffd700 2.1%sunny 0.7%gold 4.4%best hit —