Clutch

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$4.40

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $3.87 from 220 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.02%

9,373 openings, odds method

Variance

15.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 39

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.20%±34.88429 openings

7 days

86.44%±8.507,757 openings

30 days

85.02%±7.749,373 openings

since tracking started

85.02%±7.749,373 openings

52.5%88.0%123.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	429	88.20%±34.9	+0.2σ	odds
7d	7,757	86.44%±8.50	−0.3σ	odds
30d	9,373	85.02%±7.74	−0.7σ	odds
All	9,373	85.02%±7.74	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values220 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,783 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$1,702	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$1,652	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$1,429	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$1,329	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$1,230	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$908	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$825	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 100,000	$261	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$221	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 100,000	$209	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$207	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$191	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$185	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$181	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$173	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$166	0.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$164	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,846	$154	1.0%	6	2.5	2.36×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,846	$149	1.0%	4	2.5	1.57×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,448	$134	1.0%	1	2.8	0.35×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$132	1.0%	2	2.9	0.68×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$132	1.0%	4	2.9	1.36×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,226	$129	1.0%	1	3.0	0.33×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,125	$125	1.0%	5	3.1	1.60×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,226	$124	1.0%	4	3.0	1.32×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,030	$121	1.0%	2	3.2	0.62×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,941	$116	1.0%	1	3.3	0.30×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,778	$112	1.0%	3	3.5	0.85×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,564	$102	1.0%	6	3.8	1.57×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$99.69	1.0%	7	3.9	1.79×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,381	$92.86	1.0%	6	4.1	1.46×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,273	$91.03	1.0%	3	4.3	0.70×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,222	$87.80	1.0%	3	4.4	0.68×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,174	$87.15	1.0%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,174	$86.99	1.0%	5	4.5	1.11×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,128	$84.45	1.0%	3	4.6	0.65×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,128	$83.63	1.0%	2	4.6	0.43×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,083	$81.23	1.0%	6	4.7	1.28×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$80.19	1.0%	4	4.9	0.82×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$78.55	1.0%	3	4.9	0.61×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,961	$76.89	1.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,923	$75.78	1.0%	6	5.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,923	$75.66	1.0%	5	5.1	0.98×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 1,887	$74.35	1.0%	5	5.2	0.96×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,852	$72.63	1.0%	3	5.3	0.57×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)gloves · gold	1 in 1,667	$66.75	1.0%	9	5.9	1.53×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$66.43	1.0%	7	5.9	1.19×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$63.54	1.0%	6	6.1	0.99×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,587	$62.41	1.0%	9	6.2	1.46×
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 1,562	$61.88	1.0%	3	6.3	0.48×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,538	$60.83	1.0%	6	6.4	0.94×
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,538	$60.78	1.0%	4	6.4	0.63×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,538	$60.16	1.0%	9	6.4	1.42×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,538	$60.01	1.0%	5	6.4	0.79×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,351	$52.90	1.0%	7	7.2	0.97×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,282	$50.23	1.0%	4	7.6	0.52×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,235	$48.97	1.0%	11	7.9	1.39×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 1,205	$47.70	1.0%	12	8.1	1.48×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,149	$45.95	1.0%	9	8.5	1.06×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,136	$44.93	1.0%	4	8.6	0.46×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,099	$43.69	1.0%	13	8.9	1.46×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$43.49	1.0%	8	8.9	0.90×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 1,075	$42.59	1.0%	8	9.1	0.88×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Well-Worn)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 1,064	$42.18	1.0%	9	9.2	0.98×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,064	$42.17	1.0%	11	9.2	1.20×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 1,000	$39.29	1.0%	6	9.8	0.61×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 962	$38.10	1.0%	4	10.2	0.39×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 943	$37.60	1.0%	9	10.4	0.87×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 935	$37.27	1.0%	16	10.5	1.53×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 943	$37.24	1.0%	14	10.4	1.35×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 943	$37.16	1.0%	9	10.4	0.87×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 943	$37.15	1.0%	10	10.4	0.96×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 926	$36.74	1.0%	7	10.6	0.66×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 926	$36.40	1.0%	5	10.6	0.47×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 524	$20.74	1.0%	22	18.7	1.18×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 341	$13.50	1.0%	43	28.7	1.50×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 307	$12.11	1.0%	36	31.9	1.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 288	$11.38	1.0%	33	33.9	0.97×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 254	$10.04	1.0%	35	38.5	0.91×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 254	$10.04	1.0%	31	38.4	0.81×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 250	$9.88	1.0%	49	39.1	1.25×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 244	$9.63	1.0%	37	40.1	0.92×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 225	$8.89	1.0%	47	43.4	1.08×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 225	$8.89	1.0%	36	43.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 209	$8.27	1.0%	35	46.8	0.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 199	$7.87	1.0%	52	49.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$7.64	1.0%	54	50.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 187	$7.38	1.0%	56	52.3	1.07×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 161	$6.38	1.0%	64	60.7	1.06×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 150	$5.92	1.0%	79	65.3	1.21×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$4.64	1.0%	75	83.4	0.90×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 114	$4.49	1.0%	33	86.1	0.38×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$4.42	1.0%	74	87.5	0.85×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$4.33	1.0%	99	89.3	1.11×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 108	$4.28	1.0%	95	90.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 108	$4.27	1.0%	77	90.6	0.85×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$4.25	1.0%	100	91.0	1.10×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 106	$4.17	1.0%	86	92.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 104	$4.13	1.0%	88	93.6	0.94×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 104	$4.11	1.0%	81	94.1	0.86×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 102	$4.03	1.0%	120	95.9	1.25×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn)weapon · 4	1 in 101	$4.00	1.0%	100	96.7	1.03×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 101	$3.99	1.0%	106	96.9	1.09×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 97	$3.85	1.0%	105	100.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$3.82	1.0%	90	101.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,449	$3.56	0.1%	49	6.8	7.26×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,408	$3.51	0.1%	7	6.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,370	$3.37	0.1%	6	7.1	0.84×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,075	$2.66	0.1%	12	9.1	1.32×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,031	$2.54	0.1%	8	9.5	0.84×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 990	$2.43	0.1%	10	9.9	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 885	$2.18	0.1%	9	11.1	0.81×
Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 787	$1.94	0.1%	9	12.4	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 769	$1.90	0.1%	8	12.7	0.63×
Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$1.83	0.1%	17	13.1	1.30×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 741	$1.82	0.1%	11	13.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 685	$1.69	0.1%	14	14.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 621	$1.52	0.1%	19	15.8	1.21×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 599	$1.47	0.1%	15	16.3	0.92×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 562	$1.38	0.1%	19	17.4	1.09×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 529	$1.30	0.1%	12	18.5	0.65×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 518	$1.28	0.1%	15	18.9	0.79×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 510	$1.25	0.1%	29	19.2	1.51×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 500	$1.23	0.1%	25	19.6	1.28×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 500	$1.23	0.1%	17	19.6	0.87×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 488	$1.20	0.1%	19	20.1	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 488	$1.20	0.1%	20	20.1	1.00×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 485	$1.19	0.1%	16	20.2	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 472	$1.16	0.1%	32	20.7	1.54×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 455	$1.12	0.1%	16	21.5	0.74×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 444	$1.09	0.1%	19	22.0	0.86×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 431	$1.06	0.1%	25	22.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 407	$1.00	0.1%	34	24.1	1.41×
Negev \| Lionfish (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 391	$0.96	0.1%	27	25.0	1.08×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 391	$0.96	0.1%	27	25.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 375	$0.92	0.1%	17	26.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 369	$0.91	0.1%	23	26.5	0.87×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 365	$0.90	0.1%	21	26.8	0.78×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 365	$0.90	0.1%	38	26.8	1.42×
Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 361	$0.89	0.1%	32	27.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 362	$0.89	0.1%	31	27.0	1.15×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 357	$0.88	0.1%	27	27.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 350	$0.86	0.1%	27	28.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wild Six (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 341	$0.84	0.1%	28	28.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 341	$0.84	0.1%	24	28.7	0.84×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 333	$0.82	0.1%	29	29.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wild Six (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 325	$0.80	0.1%	27	30.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 309	$0.76	0.1%	33	31.7	1.04×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 276	$0.68	0.1%	31	35.4	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 276	$0.68	0.1%	42	35.4	1.19×
Negev \| Lionfish (Well-Worn)weapon · Heavy	1 in 248	$0.61	0.1%	47	39.4	1.19×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 220	$0.54	0.1%	42	44.5	0.94×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 219	$0.54	0.1%	53	44.6	1.19×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 219	$0.54	0.1%	44	44.6	0.99×
Negev \| Lionfish (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 219	$0.54	0.1%	43	44.6	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 216	$0.53	0.1%	44	45.4	0.97×
Negev \| Lionfish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 215	$0.53	0.1%	42	45.5	0.92×
Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 211	$0.52	0.1%	37	46.3	0.80×
Nova \| Wild Six (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 207	$0.51	0.1%	42	47.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 207	$0.51	0.1%	43	47.3	0.91×
Nova \| Wild Six (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 203	$0.50	0.1%	43	48.1	0.89×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 195	$0.48	0.1%	42	50.2	0.84×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 191	$0.47	0.1%	61	51.2	1.19×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 187	$0.46	0.1%	50	52.3	0.96×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 167	$0.41	0.1%	64	58.7	1.09×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 150	$0.37	0.1%	68	65.1	1.05×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 150	$0.37	0.1%	74	65.1	1.14×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 142	$0.35	0.1%	77	68.8	1.12×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 138	$0.34	0.1%	70	70.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 134	$0.33	0.1%	88	73.0	1.21×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 130	$0.32	0.1%	62	75.2	0.82×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 130	$0.32	0.1%	80	75.2	1.06×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.31	0.1%	74	77.7	0.95×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.31	0.1%	94	77.7	1.21×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 126	$0.31	0.1%	83	77.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 126	$0.31	0.1%	92	77.6	1.19×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 126	$0.31	0.1%	78	77.7	1.00×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 122	$0.30	0.1%	85	80.2	1.06×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 122	$0.30	0.1%	68	80.3	0.85×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 122	$0.30	0.1%	91	80.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	76	83.1	0.92×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	90	83.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	82	83.1	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	98	83.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	110	83.1	1.32×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	91	83.1	1.10×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	75	83.1	0.90×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	84	83.0	1.01×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 118	$0.29	0.1%	82	83.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 114	$0.28	0.1%	101	86.0	1.17×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 114	$0.28	0.1%	90	86.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.26	0.1%	93	92.6	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 102	$0.25	0.1%	102	96.3	1.06×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 102	$0.25	0.1%	109	96.3	1.13×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 97	$0.24	0.1%	91	100.4	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.24	0.1%	87	100.3	0.87×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 97	$0.24	0.1%	103	100.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.24	0.1%	105	100.3	1.05×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 97	$0.24	0.1%	101	100.4	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 93	$0.23	0.1%	102	104.7	0.97×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 93	$0.23	0.1%	97	104.7	0.93×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 93	$0.23	0.1%	122	104.7	1.17×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 89	$0.22	0.1%	109	109.5	1.00×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.22	0.1%	121	109.5	1.11×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 85	$0.21	0.1%	89	114.7	0.78×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$0.20	0.1%	101	120.3	0.84×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$0.20	0.1%	93	120.4	0.77×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 73	$0.18	0.1%	120	133.7	0.90×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 73	$0.18	0.1%	96	133.7	0.72×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.17	0.1%	144	141.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.17	0.1%	134	141.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.17	0.1%	148	141.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.17	0.1%	148	141.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 65	$0.16	0.1%	152	150.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 65	$0.16	0.1%	142	150.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.15	0.1%	154	160.5	0.96×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 61	$0.15	0.1%	176	160.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.15	0.1%	169	160.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 53	$0.13	0.1%	189	185.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 49	$0.12	0.1%	170	200.6	0.85×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/clutch, 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted// KENSEİ //$5.00$0.860.17x24m

StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified// KENSEİ //$5.00$7.381.48x24m

Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical// KENSEİ //$5.00$0.540.11x25m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffPkn$5.00$0.250.05x44m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffPkn$5.00$1.200.24x52m

R8 Revolver | Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1Pkn$5.00$0.340.07x52m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradePkn$5.00$0.120.02x53m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLogiryu$5.00$0.280.06x4h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLogiryu$5.00$0.240.05x4h

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLogiryu$5.00$4.330.87x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$4.40	88.00%	220
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$4.40	87.99%	220
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.40	87.96%	220
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$4.40	88.00%	220
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$4.40	87.98%	220
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$4.40	87.98%	220
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$4.40	87.98%	220
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$4.40	87.98%	220
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$4.40	87.99%	220

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.9%3 0.9%4 1.0%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 2.7%rare 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 0.3%Ancient 0.1%gold 0.2%sunny 0.2%Extraordinary 0.2%Legendary 3.2%classified 9.1%#8847ff 2.9%#d32ce6 0.5%restricted 4.4%#d32ee6 0.7%Mythical 2.3%pink 2.0%Classified 1.0%Restricted 3.4%milspec 34.4%Mil Spec Grade 6.5%Rare 2.8%mil spec 4.2%#8847FF 0.6%Heavy 0.4%violet 1.0%blue 1.4%#4b69ff 9.4%Mil Spec 1.4%best hit —