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Crimson Rivals

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$0.50
Advertised RTP
87.98%
EV $0.44 from 90 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.64%
597 openings, sample method
Variance
18.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
597 openings · below min
7 days
597 openings · below min
30 days
597 openings · below min
since tracking started
597 openings · below min
66.0%78.8%91.5%

Small sample. 597 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h59778.64%±12.2—sample
7d59778.64%±12.2—sample
30d59778.64%±12.2—sample
All59778.64%±12.2—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 597 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100,000$1940.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 100,000$1180.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100,000$90.220.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100,000$85.080.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100,000$79.310.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$74.193.0%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 4,348$59.133.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 3,333$44.863.1%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 3,333$44.463.0%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 3,125$41.983.1%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 704$9.483.1%20.8—
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 543$7.333.1%11.10.91×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 452$6.083.1%11.30.76×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 243$3.283.1%32.51.22×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 219$2.953.1%22.70.73×
Galil AR | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 122$1.643.1%74.91.43×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 97$1.303.1%46.20.65×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 91$1.233.1%66.50.92×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 84$1.133.1%37.10.42×
MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 83$1.123.1%127.21.67×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 74$1.003.1%128.01.49×
P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 64$0.863.1%109.31.07×
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.843.1%99.60.94×
SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 53$0.713.1%1311.31.15×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 52$0.703.1%1611.51.39×
SG 553 | Aerial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 50$0.673.1%912.00.75×
SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 48$0.653.1%1412.41.13×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 41$0.553.1%1714.61.16×
SG 553 | Aerial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 40$0.543.1%1214.90.81×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 37$0.503.1%1816.11.12×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.443.1%1518.30.82×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 33$0.443.1%1718.30.93×
SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 33$0.443.1%3018.31.64×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 377$0.380.2%01.60.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 377$0.380.2%31.61.90×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 328$0.330.2%11.80.55×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 327$0.330.2%01.80.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 317$0.320.2%01.90.00×
MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 317$0.320.2%41.92.13×
MP7 | Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 308$0.310.2%21.91.03×
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 298$0.300.2%02.00.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 288$0.290.2%12.10.48×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 278$0.280.2%02.10.00×
MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 278$0.280.2%72.13.26×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)weapon · 21 in 228$0.230.2%22.60.76×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 228$0.230.2%22.60.76×
Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 228$0.230.2%42.61.53×
MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 218$0.220.2%02.70.00×
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 198$0.200.2%23.00.66×
MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 179$0.180.2%43.31.20×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 179$0.180.2%43.31.20×
Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 179$0.180.2%73.32.09×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 159$0.160.2%33.80.80×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 149$0.150.2%24.00.50×
Nova | Caged Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 149$0.150.2%64.01.50×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 139$0.140.2%14.30.23×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 129$0.130.2%44.60.86×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 129$0.130.2%44.60.86×
Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 129$0.130.2%44.60.86×
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 119$0.120.2%65.01.20×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 119$0.120.2%75.01.40×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 119$0.120.2%15.00.20×
MP7 | Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 119$0.120.2%45.00.80×
Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 119$0.120.2%45.00.80×
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 99$0.100.2%66.01.00×
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 99$0.100.2%76.01.16×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 99$0.100.2%36.00.50×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 99$0.100.2%126.02.00×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 99$0.100.2%26.00.33×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 89$0.090.2%76.71.05×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 89$0.090.2%106.71.50×
MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 89$0.090.2%86.71.20×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 79$0.080.2%87.51.06×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 79$0.080.2%97.51.20×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 79$0.080.2%57.50.66×
MP7 | Motherboard (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 79$0.080.2%57.50.66×
Galil AR | Sage Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #7777771 in 79$0.080.2%107.51.33×
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 79$0.080.2%77.50.93×
Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 79$0.080.2%77.50.93×
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 69$0.070.2%98.61.05×
MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 60$0.060.2%1010.01.00×
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 60$0.060.2%1110.01.10×
Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 40$0.040.2%1315.00.86×
Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 40$0.040.2%1015.00.66×
Galil AR | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer1 in 30$0.030.2%2120.11.05×
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 30$0.030.2%1820.10.90×
Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer1 in 30$0.030.2%2520.11.25×
Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · #B0C3D91 in 30$0.030.2%1320.10.65×
Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · Common1 in 30$0.030.2%2020.11.00×
Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 30$0.030.2%1920.10.95×
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/crimson-rivals, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffJ̷o̷n̷1̷$0.50$0.440.88x
Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerJ̷o̷n̷1̷$0.50$0.030.06x
MP7 | Motherboard (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ffJ̷o̷n̷1̷$0.50$0.080.16x
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspecJ̷o̷n̷1̷$0.50$0.841.68x
Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluejordi$0.50$0.200.40x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecjordi$0.50$0.501.00x
Galil AR | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerjordi$0.50$0.030.06x
SG 553 | Aerial (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffjordi$0.50$0.440.88x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerChill007$0.50$0.030.06x
MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specChill007$0.50$0.551.10x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$0.5087.98%90
11 Nov, 03:46 UTC$0.5088.01%90
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 0.4%covert 0.0%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%industrial 12.1%#87c7ff 6.4%milspec 21.1%mil spec 8.2%consumer 26.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.9%Rare 2.0%blue 7.1%#4b69ff 3.5%Uncommon 0.4%Mil Spec 0.6%light blue 0.6%#777777 1.3%#B0C3D9 3.4%Common 3.4%best hit —