CS2 Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$155.00

Advertised RTP

86.00%

EV $133.30 from 212 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.19%

26 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

26 openings · below min

since tracking started

26 openings · below min

-0.5%88.8%178.0%

Small sample. 26 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	46.39%±131.1	—	odds
7d	22	84.62%±29.1	—	odds
30d	26	86.19%±27.3	—	odds
All	26	86.19%±27.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values212 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 926	$923	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 862	$857	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 699	$696	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 685	$677	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 641	$637	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 532	$531	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 529	$525	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 524	$521	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 524	$519	0.7%	1	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 521	$515	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 503	$500	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 490	$488	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 472	$468	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 459	$456	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 455	$453	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 448	$445	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 444	$442	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 437	$433	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 415	$413	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 412	$408	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 403	$401	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 392	$391	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 382	$380	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 377	$375	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 368	$366	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 361	$359	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 360	$358	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 341	$339	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 340	$339	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$331	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$284	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 285	$283	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 277	$276	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 260	$259	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 240	$238	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 235	$234	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 228	$227	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 226	$224	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 219	$218	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 210	$208	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 207	$206	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 204	$203	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 204	$202	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 203	$202	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 190	$190	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 190	$189	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 189	$188	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 188	$187	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 187	$185	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 186	$185	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 185	$183	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$180	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$179	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$174	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 175	$174	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 172	$170	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 169	$168	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 168	$167	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$166	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 166	$165	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 166	$165	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 166	$165	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 166	$165	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 165	$164	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 165	$164	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 165	$164	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 164	$163	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$162	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$161	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 160	$159	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 159	$159	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$157	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$153	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$153	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 154	$153	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$153	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 153	$152	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 152	$152	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 149	$148	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 146	$145	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$144	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$144	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 141	$141	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 141	$140	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 141	$140	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$137	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$137	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 356	$133	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 351	$131	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 350	$131	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 348	$131	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 344	$129	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 344	$128	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 337	$126	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 326	$122	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 324	$121	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 322	$120	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 322	$120	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 315	$118	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 314	$118	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 311	$116	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 305	$114	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 299	$112	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 293	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 293	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 292	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 290	$109	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 286	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$106	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$105	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$105	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 279	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 271	$102	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 271	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 267	$99.86	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 264	$98.86	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 264	$98.78	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$98.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 261	$97.84	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 260	$97.09	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 259	$96.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 256	$96.00	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 256	$95.83	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 253	$94.67	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 252	$94.37	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 251	$93.89	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$93.63	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 248	$92.96	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 245	$91.94	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 244	$91.60	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 243	$91.15	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 240	$89.78	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 238	$89.05	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 238	$88.84	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 237	$88.80	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 235	$87.86	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 231	$86.59	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 229	$86.03	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 225	$84.39	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 224	$83.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 221	$82.86	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 221	$82.85	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 220	$82.38	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 218	$81.57	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 216	$80.70	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 215	$80.51	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 215	$80.39	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 215	$80.29	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 214	$80.02	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 213	$79.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 211	$78.69	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 206	$77.15	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 206	$77.06	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 196	$73.62	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 192	$71.90	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 192	$71.60	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 188	$70.57	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 186	$69.74	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 184	$69.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 183	$68.43	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 182	$68.01	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 179	$67.10	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 179	$67.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 179	$66.84	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 176	$65.93	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 173	$64.84	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 173	$64.72	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 173	$64.62	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 172	$64.33	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 172	$64.20	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 171	$64.09	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 169	$63.11	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 165	$61.90	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 165	$61.67	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 164	$61.41	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 164	$61.26	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$61.10	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 163	$61.06	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 162	$60.61	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$60.41	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$60.26	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 156	$58.55	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$55.69	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 148	$55.61	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 148	$55.55	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 148	$55.45	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 148	$55.38	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 147	$55.14	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 147	$54.98	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 146	$54.82	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 146	$54.71	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 144	$53.78	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 141	$52.85	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 139	$52.10	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 138	$51.58	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 137	$51.25	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 134	$50.20	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 131	$49.01	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 130	$48.61	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 130	$48.53	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 130	$48.47	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 129	$48.43	0.3%	2	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 129	$48.28	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 126	$47.23	0.3%	0	0.2	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/cs2-knives, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertpavelmotorenko$155$5183.34x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covertONETAP MEISTER$155$71.900.46x15h

★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · goldkronyii$155$83.090.54x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covertCornedBeef&Hash$155$47.640.31x2d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifejaxi$155$1641.06x4d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifejaxi$155$84.390.54x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifejaxi$155$3712.39x4d

★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covertzat$155$67.090.43x4d

★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertzat$155$84.910.55x4d

★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortalzat$155$1601.03x4d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$155$1440.93x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$155	85.99%	212
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$155	86.09%	212
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$155	86.00%	212
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$155	85.99%	212

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 59.8%covert 23.9%gold 8.9%epic 0.8%Immortal 2.4%Covert 1.3%sunny 0.7%#ffd700 1.7%rare 0.6%best hit $518 (3.34x)