Dream
A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.
Price
$49.68
Advertised RTP
87.98%
EV $43.71 from 85 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.06%
72 openings, sample method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 72 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hellcase:api/open/dream, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $49.68 | 87.98% | 85 |
| 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $49.68 | 88.03% | 85 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 63.2%covert 10.7%restricted 0.2%Covert 0.2%covert knife 3.2%gold 0.3%#ffd700 0.4%#d32ee6 4.4%Legendary 9.0%pink 3.6%#d32ce6 4.8%best hit $652 (11.55x)