Error In The Afterlife

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$15.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $13.20 from 134 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.17%

172 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

71.33%±27.56115 openings

30 days

89.17%±22.54172 openings

since tracking started

89.17%±22.54172 openings

43.0%77.8%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	115	71.33%±27.6	−1.2σ	odds
30d	172	89.17%±22.5	+0.1σ	odds
All	172	89.17%±22.5	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values134 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 11,111	$645	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$374	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 7,143	$366	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$293	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$259	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$258	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$232	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$219	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$219	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$210	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,846	$207	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$205	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,704	$199	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$196	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,125	$160	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$160	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,941	$158	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,030	$157	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,941	$154	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,778	$147	0.4%	1	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$145	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$145	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,703	$144	0.4%	2	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$140	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$134	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$133	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$132	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$132	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,500	$132	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 2,381	$126	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,381	$125	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,381	$125	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$124	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 2,326	$122	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$119	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,128	$111	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,083	$110	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$108	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$107	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$104	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$97.23	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$94.46	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$93.45	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$86.98	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,613	$84.78	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$83.72	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$82.61	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,538	$82.03	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$81.58	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$81.42	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 1,538	$81.31	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,538	$81.12	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$80.86	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,538	$80.68	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$79.92	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$79.20	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$78.55	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,408	$74.85	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$73.50	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,370	$72.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$71.93	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$71.08	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$70.69	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$68.39	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$68.27	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$67.85	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$66.88	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$66.64	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,250	$66.36	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,250	$66.14	0.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$65.63	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$65.50	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$63.94	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$61.25	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 1,149	$61.00	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$60.35	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$59.23	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$55.79	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$54.38	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$54.02	0.4%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$53.63	0.4%	1	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$53.07	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$52.15	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$51.62	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 971	$51.24	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 962	$50.81	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 952	$50.34	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 952	$50.29	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 952	$50.28	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 935	$49.54	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 935	$49.36	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 885	$46.91	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 877	$46.33	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 847	$44.71	0.4%	2	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 813	$42.74	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 787	$41.73	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 787	$41.62	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 775	$41.07	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 775	$41.04	0.4%	1	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 775	$40.86	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 763	$40.36	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 763	$40.29	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 730	$38.61	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 709	$37.36	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 704	$37.11	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 690	$36.48	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 685	$36.16	0.4%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 671	$35.50	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 671	$35.46	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 662	$35.02	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 641	$33.78	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 599	$31.75	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 552	$29.15	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 515	$27.24	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 513	$26.99	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 503	$26.51	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 405	$21.44	0.4%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 389	$20.53	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 388	$20.47	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 372	$19.68	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 361	$19.05	0.4%	0	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 356	$18.82	0.4%	1	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 351	$18.58	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 341	$17.99	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 334	$17.70	0.4%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 312	$16.44	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 11	$8.84	6.2%	17	15.9	1.07×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$8.65	6.2%	17	16.3	1.05×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	11.0%	$7.41	6.2%	19	19.0	1.00×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	11.3%	$7.25	6.2%	18	19.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.3%	$7.23	6.2%	24	19.5	1.23×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	11.7%	$6.98	6.2%	24	20.2	1.19×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	12.0%	$6.84	6.2%	15	20.6	0.73×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.1%	$6.74	6.2%	19	20.9	0.91×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/error-in-the-afterlife, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified(◕‿◕)۶$15.00$8.840.59x5d

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified𝕴𝖗𝖔𝖓 𝕸𝖆𝖓$15.00$7.230.48x5d

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink𝕴𝖗𝖔𝖓 𝕸𝖆𝖓$15.00$7.250.48x5d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient𝕴𝖗𝖔𝖓 𝕸𝖆𝖓$15.00$46.333.09x5d

USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · redeir ve$15.00$41.042.74x5d

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkgibson$15.00$8.650.58x5d

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedgibson$15.00$8.840.59x5d

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinktorbenlike_$15.00$6.980.47x5d

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedapaciiiiiii$15.00$6.840.46x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$15.00	88.00%	134
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$15.00	88.00%	134
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$15.00	88.01%	134
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$15.00	87.99%	134
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$15.00	88.00%	134

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.2%classified 35.3%legendary 0.0%covert 4.6%Ancient 0.6%Covert 0.3%rare 0.4%red 1.4%#eb4b4b 0.3%pink 43.9%Legendary 0.2%#d32ee6 0.8%Classified 12.0%best hit —