Falchion

A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

81.68%

2,697 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

432 openings · below min

7 days

80.30%±14.032,047 openings

30 days

81.68%±12.252,697 openings

since tracking started

81.68%±12.252,697 openings

48.5%82.5%116.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	432	82.51%±33.4	—	sample
7d	2,047	80.30%±14.0	—	sample
30d	2,697	81.68%±12.3	—	sample
All	2,697	81.68%±12.3	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogHellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife✪Charrzz$2.00$14773.35x6d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifesequantur deum$2.00$12864.14x3d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeL4Ci13$2.00$12461.88x18h

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeNovaVex02$2.00$11557.36x5d

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeNeveron$2.00$10552.51x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedZoks3es$2.00$0.840.42x3m

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1Zoks3es$2.00$1.090.55x4m

Negev | Loudmouth (Well-Worn)weapon · violetZoks3es$2.00$1.150.58x5m

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil specLarskurucz$2.00$0.790.40x11m

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedLarskurucz$2.00$1.190.60x14m

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeSTARINA$2.00$1.000.50x15m

P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarePRECELEK$2.00$0.820.41x17m

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecTheMan$2.00$0.650.33x1h

MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedTheMan$2.00$8.654.33x1h

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FFTheMan$2.00$0.250.13x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $147 (73.35x)