Final Showdown

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.97%

EV $5.28 from 132 items

Observed RTP, 30d

151.44%

39 openings, sample method

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

39 openings · below min

7 days

39 openings · below min

30 days

39 openings · below min

since tracking started

39 openings · below min

-0.5%152.0%304.5%

Small sample. 39 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	39	151.44%±152.6	—	sample
7d	39	151.44%±152.6	—	sample
30d	39	151.44%±152.6	—	sample
All	39	151.44%±152.6	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values132 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$293	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$275	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$222	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$220	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$217	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$215	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$215	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$212	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$198	0.8%	1	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$179	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$175	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$140	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$98.80	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,064	$45.18	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$44.45	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,031	$43.69	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$43.64	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$41.27	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 935	$39.85	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 935	$39.64	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 917	$38.93	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 909	$38.76	0.8%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 813	$34.50	0.8%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 800	$34.24	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 769	$32.75	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 602	$25.70	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 575	$24.56	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 568	$24.25	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 526	$22.44	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 495	$21.08	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 495	$21.02	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 481	$20.45	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 448	$19.07	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 442	$18.87	0.8%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 420	$17.88	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 408	$17.35	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 405	$17.23	0.8%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 405	$17.20	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 397	$16.91	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 394	$16.77	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 392	$16.63	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 340	$14.49	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 338	$14.36	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 332	$14.17	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 331	$14.08	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 328	$13.94	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 308	$13.09	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 283	$12.07	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 276	$11.74	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 265	$11.26	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 256	$10.91	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 254	$10.83	0.8%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 248	$10.53	0.8%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 240	$10.21	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 236	$10.04	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 232	$9.88	0.8%	2	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 226	$9.63	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 216	$9.20	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 216	$9.18	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 213	$9.07	0.8%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 209	$8.91	0.8%	2	0.2	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 209	$8.89	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 206	$8.75	0.8%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 205	$8.71	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 198	$8.44	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 198	$8.41	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 195	$8.28	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 190	$8.12	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 189	$8.07	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 186	$7.90	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 185	$7.88	0.8%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 182	$7.75	0.8%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 177	$7.52	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 177	$7.51	0.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 174	$7.38	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 172	$7.33	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 172	$7.31	0.8%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 171	$7.28	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 168	$7.14	0.8%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 163	$6.95	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 163	$6.92	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 163	$6.91	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 162	$6.89	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 161	$6.84	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 160	$6.82	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 151	$6.44	0.8%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 149	$6.35	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 145	$6.16	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 142	$6.03	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 139	$5.91	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 138	$5.88	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 153	$5.26	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 141	$4.85	0.7%	1	0.3	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 139	$4.78	0.7%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$4.76	0.7%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 138	$4.74	0.7%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 138	$4.73	0.7%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 137	$4.71	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$4.68	0.6%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$4.64	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$4.54	0.7%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$4.52	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 131	$4.48	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 130	$4.46	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 123	$4.21	0.7%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 121	$4.15	0.7%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 120	$4.11	0.7%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$4.03	0.7%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 117	$4.02	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 117	$4.00	0.7%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 115	$3.96	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 114	$3.91	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$3.86	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$3.84	0.7%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$3.38	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$3.28	0.7%	0	0.4	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 93	$3.19	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$2.86	0.7%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$2.29	0.7%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$2.07	0.7%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 55	$1.90	0.7%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$1.52	0.7%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$1.46	0.7%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$1.44	0.7%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.42	0.7%	1	0.9	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$1.36	0.7%	2	1.0	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$1.17	0.7%	1	1.1	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$0.98	0.7%	3	1.4	2.20×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$0.88	0.7%	4	1.5	2.63×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$0.64	0.7%	1	2.1	0.48×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.47	0.7%	1	2.8	0.35×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 14	$0.47	0.7%	5	2.8	1.76×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/final-showdown, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violetゼノール$6.00$0.470.08x58m

P250 | Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedreykZ$6.00$1.460.24x3h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMaestro Vojtin$6.00$0.640.11x3h

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$6.00$1.360.23x4h

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3dario$6.00$0.470.08x4h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendarydario$6.00$4.730.79x4h

FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMakeUcrY$6.00$34.505.75x4h

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violetpffffffffffp$6.00$0.970.16x5h

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3BOTJason™$6.00$0.470.08x5h

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedIMA$6.00$2.290.38x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$6.00	87.97%	132
11 Nov, 03:46 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	132

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 7.3%classified 15.8%covert 0.2%restricted 41.4%Legendary 4.8%Restricted 1.9%Classified 2.0%pink 6.1%Mythical 2.1%#8847ff 5.0%violet 11.4%#d32ee6 2.0%best hit —