Free Key drop

A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
51.43%
274 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
21 openings · below min
7 days
210 openings · below min
30 days
274 openings · below min
since tracking started
274 openings · below min
13.5%43.8%74.0%

Small sample. 274 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2124.33%±10.4—sample
7d21055.73%±17.5—sample
30d27451.43%±13.6—sample
All27451.43%±13.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogHellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —