Freehand

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$89.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $78.32 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.94%

60 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

37 openings · below min

30 days

60 openings · below min

since tracking started

60 openings · below min

-0.5%121.0%242.5%

Small sample. 60 openings and 12.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	108.43%±133.3	—	odds
7d	37	68.73%±33.9	—	odds
30d	60	77.94%±27.5	—	odds
All	60	77.94%±27.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,389	$829	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,389	$828	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,351	$817	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,316	$795	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 1,266	$754	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,235	$734	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,205	$720	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,124	$678	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,111	$671	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,111	$664	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 962	$577	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 962	$575	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 952	$575	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 943	$569	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 935	$565	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 826	$494	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 820	$493	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 763	$458	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 735	$440	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 730	$437	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 680	$409	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 671	$402	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 654	$393	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 469	$283	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 448	$269	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 422	$252	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 408	$245	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 389	$233	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 379	$227	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 377	$227	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 375	$225	0.8%	2	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 357	$214	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 353	$212	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 328	$197	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 309	$185	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 290	$174	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 285	$171	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 284	$171	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 281	$169	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 265	$159	0.8%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 263	$158	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 248	$148	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 224	$134	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 208	$125	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 206	$124	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 203	$122	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 194	$117	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 194	$116	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 190	$114	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 183	$110	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 181	$109	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$106	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 174	$104	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 173	$104	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 168	$101	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 164	$98.73	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$97.15	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 161	$96.31	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 159	$95.86	0.8%	3	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 159	$95.47	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 152	$91.00	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 151	$90.88	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 151	$90.35	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 151	$90.32	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$89.90	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 148	$88.89	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 148	$88.72	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$88.36	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$88.31	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 138	$82.90	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 137	$82.45	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 136	$81.80	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 136	$81.56	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 136	$81.48	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 134	$80.26	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$80.12	0.8%	2	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 43	$77.34	2.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 42	$76.27	2.3%	3	1.4	2.10×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 42	$76.26	2.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 41	$75.29	2.3%	2	1.4	1.38×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 41	$74.24	2.3%	2	1.5	1.36×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 39	$70.66	2.3%	1	1.5	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$68.35	2.3%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 37	$66.99	2.3%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 35	$63.24	2.3%	2	1.7	1.16×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 34	$61.81	2.3%	1	1.8	0.57×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$60.54	2.3%	4	1.8	2.22×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 28	$50.49	2.3%	4	2.2	1.85×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 26	$46.49	2.3%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$40.64	2.3%	1	2.7	0.37×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 18	$32.36	2.3%	4	3.4	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$25.46	2.3%	7	4.3	1.63×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$21.66	2.3%	2	5.0	0.40×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$20.56	2.3%	7	5.3	1.32×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/freehandd, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covertSzalonyKefir$89.00$1591.78x4h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedbongomurzynkongo$55.00$68.351.24x8h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedKiryuSenpai$89.00$25.460.29x16h

★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · goldL3oonn$89.00$75.830.85x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Factory New)knife · Immortalzat$89.00$74.830.84x2d

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedzat$89.00$20.360.23x2d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$89.00$1061.19x2d

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifezat$89.00$60.540.68x2d

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedHalfo$89.00$25.630.29x3d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified\\^^Bossini^^//$89.00$50.490.57x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$89.00	87.99%	94
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$89.00	88.06%	94
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	94
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$74.76	88.00%	94
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$74.76	88.00%	94

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 24.5%covert 10.4%Covert 0.1%gold 8.2%classified 35.6%rare 1.3%Classified 8.0%Immortal 2.4%sunny 5.6%Legendary 3.9%best hit —