Gamma Doppler
A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.
Price
$170.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $149.60 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
115.18%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 7.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hellcase:api/open/gamma-doppler, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $170 | 88.00% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $170 | 88.02% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $170 | 88.01% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $170 | 88.00% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $170 | 88.00% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $170 | 88.00% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $170 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $170 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $170 | 87.95% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $170 | 88.01% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $170 | 88.01% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 23.2%Covert 15.9%#ffd700 1.0%legendary 0.3%gold 8.3%sunny 4.6%extraordinary 15.8%Immortal 2.1%covert 13.6%red 6.7%#eb4b4b 8.5%best hit $1,475 (8.68x)