Graphic Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

87.97%

EV $3.52 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d

128.87%

186 openings, odds method

Variance

9.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

21 openings · below min

7 days

141.85%±46.72160 openings

30 days

128.87%±43.52186 openings

since tracking started

128.87%±43.52186 openings

-0.5%94.3%189.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	21	51.05%±128.2	—	odds
7d	160	141.85%±46.7	+2.3σ	odds
30d	186	128.87%±43.5	+1.8σ	odds
All	186	128.87%±43.5	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 187 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$778	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$335	2.8%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,041	$202	2.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,408	$139	2.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,220	$121	2.8%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$100	2.8%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 943	$93.55	2.8%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 633	$62.43	2.8%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 621	$61.30	2.8%	1	0.3	—
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 599	$59.40	2.8%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 433	$42.92	2.8%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 377	$37.23	2.8%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 310	$30.68	2.8%	1	0.6	—
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 280	$27.72	2.8%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 266	$26.30	2.8%	1	0.7	—
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 238	$23.49	2.8%	2	0.8	—
P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 169	$16.69	2.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 168	$16.65	2.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 162	$16.05	2.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 138	$13.61	2.8%	1	1.4	0.74×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 114	$11.25	2.8%	1	1.6	0.61×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 106	$10.53	2.8%	2	1.8	1.14×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 104	$10.25	2.8%	4	1.8	2.21×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 95	$9.41	2.8%	3	2.0	1.53×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 71	$7.05	2.8%	3	2.6	1.14×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 71	$6.99	2.8%	3	2.6	1.13×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 67	$6.58	2.8%	1	2.8	0.36×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$6.44	2.8%	6	2.9	2.09×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$6.30	2.8%	4	2.9	1.36×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 59	$5.88	2.8%	3	3.1	0.95×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 54	$5.39	2.8%	2	3.4	0.58×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 48	$4.77	2.8%	4	3.9	1.03×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$3.99	2.8%	3	4.6	0.65×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 36	$3.53	2.8%	5	5.2	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 500	$2.70	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 474	$2.56	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 467	$2.52	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 452	$2.44	0.2%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 452	$2.44	0.2%	0	0.4	—
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 368	$1.98	0.2%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 313	$1.69	0.2%	0	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 280	$1.51	0.2%	0	0.7	—
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 261	$1.41	0.2%	1	0.7	—
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 253	$1.36	0.2%	1	0.7	—
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 221	$1.19	0.2%	2	0.8	—
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 215	$1.16	0.2%	0	0.9	—
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 211	$1.14	0.2%	0	0.9	—
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 211	$1.14	0.2%	1	0.9	—
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 208	$1.12	0.2%	2	0.9	—
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 198	$1.07	0.2%	0	0.9	—
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 185	$1.00	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 136	$0.73	0.2%	3	1.4	2.17×
Galil AR \| NV (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 119	$0.64	0.2%	1	1.6	0.63×
Galil AR \| NV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 102	$0.55	0.2%	4	1.8	2.18×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 100	$0.54	0.2%	3	1.9	1.61×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 98	$0.53	0.2%	1	1.9	0.53×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 98	$0.53	0.2%	4	1.9	2.10×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 65	$0.35	0.2%	2	2.9	0.69×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 59	$0.32	0.2%	4	3.2	1.27×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 58	$0.31	0.2%	5	3.3	1.54×
Galil AR \| NV (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 52	$0.28	0.2%	4	3.6	1.11×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 52	$0.28	0.2%	3	3.6	0.83×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 48	$0.26	0.2%	4	3.9	1.03×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 46	$0.25	0.2%	4	4.0	0.99×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 46	$0.25	0.2%	1	4.0	0.25×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 43	$0.23	0.2%	4	4.4	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 41	$0.22	0.2%	8	4.6	1.75×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.21	0.2%	6	4.8	1.25×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 39	$0.21	0.2%	1	4.8	0.21×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$0.18	0.2%	8	5.6	1.43×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	7	5.9	1.18×
Galil AR \| NV (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	4	5.9	0.67×
Galil AR \| NV (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	4	5.9	0.67×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	9	5.9	1.52×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	4	5.9	0.67×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	5	5.9	0.84×
P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.17	0.2%	4	5.9	0.67×
MP7 \| Astrolabe (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 30	$0.16	0.2%	9	6.3	1.43×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 30	$0.16	0.2%	5	6.3	0.79×
M249 \| Spectrogram (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 28	$0.15	0.2%	7	6.7	1.04×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/graphic-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert† ٢Є×ρΰLيσ٦ †$4.00$33583.65x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New)weapon · restricted☜☠Hypno☠☞$4.00$13.613.40x26m

AK-47 | Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue☜☠Hypno☠☞$4.00$3.530.88x27m

P2000 | Coral Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialMagicHeaven$4.00$0.180.05x2h

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueDéou$4.00$1.190.30x5h

SSG 08 | Halftone Whorl (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialUser$4.00$0.260.07x5h

FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$4.00$0.160.04x6h

Galil AR | NV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9ArborVitae$4.00$0.550.14x9h

Galil AR | NV (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialArborVitae$4.00$0.170.04x9h

P90 | Attack Vector (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedporche85$4.00$6.441.61x11h

FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialporche85$4.00$0.170.04x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$4.00	87.97%	80
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$4.00	87.94%	80
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.00	87.98%	80
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$4.00	87.97%	80
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$4.00	87.97%	80
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$4.00	87.93%	80
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$4.00	88.05%	80
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$4.00	88.04%	80
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$4.00	88.03%	80
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$4.00	88.06%	80

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.6%red 0.3%classified 0.5%pink 0.2%uncommon 7.7%violet 2.7%industrial 41.5%restricted 3.8%Mythical 1.9%#8847ff 1.8%#4b69ff 3.5%blue 7.6%milspec 1.7%common 0.4%Rare 0.3%Uncommon 0.7%light blue 0.8%#5e98d9 23.7%best hit $335 (83.65x)