Hard Luxury

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$210.00

Advertised RTP

85.00%

EV $178.50 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.15%

65 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

39 openings · below min

30 days

65 openings · below min

since tracking started

65 openings · below min

70.5%319.0%567.5%

Small sample. 65 openings and 11.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	437.80%±128.9	—	odds
7d	39	111.62%±29.7	—	odds
30d	65	98.15%±24.1	—	odds
All	65	98.15%±24.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$3,139	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$2,292	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$2,007	0.7%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$1,987	0.7%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$1,974	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,613	$1,965	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$1,964	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$1,804	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$1,543	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$1,440	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$1,435	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$1,403	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$1,383	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$1,298	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$1,292	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,031	$1,265	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,031	$1,264	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 971	$1,192	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$1,192	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 935	$1,147	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 877	$1,083	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 877	$1,078	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 758	$928	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 752	$922	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 730	$899	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 709	$872	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$820	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 658	$811	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 629	$774	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 629	$773	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 625	$767	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 610	$747	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 588	$722	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 585	$718	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 562	$688	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 543	$668	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 541	$664	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 541	$663	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 518	$639	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 515	$634	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 510	$626	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 503	$617	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 488	$599	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 452	$557	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 446	$550	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 422	$519	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 403	$494	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 369	$452	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 364	$447	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 313	$383	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 311	$381	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 299	$366	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 292	$358	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$351	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 285	$350	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 279	$343	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 274	$337	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$332	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 254	$312	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 245	$301	0.7%	2	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 243	$299	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 233	$286	0.7%	2	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$286	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 225	$277	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 224	$275	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 222	$272	0.7%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 204	$250	0.7%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 204	$250	0.7%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 203	$249	0.7%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 201	$247	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 190	$233	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 189	$233	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 183	$224	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 182	$224	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 182	$223	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$219	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 168	$206	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 164	$202	0.7%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 163	$201	0.7%	2	0.4	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$170	1.2%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$168	1.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 76	$167	1.2%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$167	1.2%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$164	1.2%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 74	$164	1.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 72	$159	1.2%	0	0.9	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 71	$155	1.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 69	$152	1.2%	1	0.9	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 68	$150	1.2%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 68	$150	1.2%	2	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$148	1.2%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 65	$143	1.2%	1	1.0	1.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 64	$141	1.2%	2	1.0	1.96×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$138	1.2%	1	1.0	0.96×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$136	1.2%	1	1.1	0.95×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$124	1.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 55	$120	1.2%	2	1.2	1.68×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$116	1.2%	3	1.2	2.44×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 53	$116	1.2%	1	1.2	0.81×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$116	1.2%	2	1.2	1.62×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$111	1.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$110	1.2%	3	1.3	2.31×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 47	$103	1.2%	1	1.4	0.72×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$99.53	1.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 41	$90.04	1.2%	3	1.6	1.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$88.55	1.2%	3	1.6	1.86×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$88.04	1.2%	1	1.6	0.62×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$87.02	1.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 36	$80.00	1.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$79.82	1.2%	2	1.8	1.12×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 32	$69.76	1.2%	2	2.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 30	$65.86	1.2%	1	2.2	0.46×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$64.86	1.2%	1	2.2	0.45×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$58.65	1.2%	2	2.4	0.82×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20	$44.74	1.2%	2	3.2	0.63×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$44.28	1.2%	0	3.2	0.00×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/hard-luxury, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.