Hardened

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$22.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $19.36 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.06%

873 openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.74%±24.73300 openings

7 days

90.13%±15.63621 openings

30 days

87.06%±13.36873 openings

since tracking started

87.06%±13.36873 openings

69.5%94.8%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	300	94.74%±24.7	+0.7σ	odds
7d	621	90.13%±15.6	+1.5σ	odds
30d	873	87.06%±13.4	+1.2σ	odds
All	873	87.06%±13.4	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 880 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 6,667	$943	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$894	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$892	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$844	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,882	$739	0.6%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$723	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$655	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$584	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 4,167	$542	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$411	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,941	$389	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,941	$384	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$360	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,703	$354	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,564	$342	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,381	$314	0.7%	2	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,273	$304	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,273	$301	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,174	$293	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$292	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,128	$283	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,083	$279	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,128	$279	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,083	$278	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,041	$275	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,041	$269	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,961	$261	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,887	$252	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,852	$249	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,818	$245	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,818	$244	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,754	$233	0.7%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,724	$230	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,695	$223	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$221	0.7%	1	0.5	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,613	$216	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$213	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,587	$209	0.7%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,538	$207	0.7%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,493	$198	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,493	$198	0.7%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,493	$197	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$191	0.7%	3	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,389	$186	0.7%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,389	$185	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,333	$176	0.7%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,299	$172	0.7%	0	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,282	$169	0.7%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,266	$168	0.7%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,250	$167	0.7%	1	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,235	$164	0.7%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,190	$160	0.7%	0	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,163	$155	0.7%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,149	$153	0.7%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,136	$150	0.7%	1	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,111	$148	0.7%	1	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$147	0.7%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,053	$139	0.7%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,020	$136	0.7%	3	0.9	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 971	$129	0.7%	3	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 962	$127	0.7%	2	0.9	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 926	$123	0.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 917	$123	0.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 909	$121	0.7%	1	1.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 870	$115	0.7%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 862	$115	0.7%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 826	$110	0.7%	3	1.1	2.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 735	$97.70	0.7%	2	1.2	1.67×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 633	$83.63	0.7%	3	1.4	2.16×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 568	$75.78	0.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 559	$74.35	0.7%	2	1.6	1.27×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 382	$50.81	0.7%	5	2.3	2.17×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 315	$41.90	0.7%	5	2.8	1.79×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 297	$39.45	0.7%	4	3.0	1.35×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 214	$28.47	0.7%	3	4.1	0.73×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 185	$24.65	0.7%	8	4.8	1.68×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 179	$23.77	0.7%	5	4.9	1.02×
P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 155	$20.56	0.7%	18	5.7	3.16×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$18.94	3.6%	23	32.1	0.72×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$18.70	3.6%	36	32.5	1.11×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$16.36	3.6%	33	37.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$14.06	3.6%	38	43.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$14.03	3.6%	41	43.4	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$13.23	3.6%	48	46.0	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$12.49	3.6%	49	48.7	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$12.03	3.6%	45	50.6	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$11.45	3.6%	56	53.1	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$11.24	3.6%	48	54.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	12.6%	$5.48	3.6%	105	111.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	13.7%	$5.03	3.6%	112	121.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.6%	$4.43	3.6%	148	137.4	1.08×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/hardened, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · goldtatarata$22.00$73933.61x17h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedamonchan100$22.00$18.940.86x6m

StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecBoum Boum 7$22.00$4.430.20x7m

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBoum Boum 7$22.00$11.450.52x7m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedHBZ$22.00$16.360.74x8m

StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecw3bzu$22.00$4.430.20x9m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedw3bzu$22.00$24.651.12x10m

StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecAlpicio 007$22.00$4.430.20x22m

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBoul2Feu$22.00$12.030.55x29m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBoul2Feu$22.00$18.940.86x30m

StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecBoul2Feu$22.00$4.430.20x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$22.00	88.01%	91
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$22.00	88.02%	91
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$21.00	88.00%	91
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$21.00	88.00%	91

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.6%covert 1.0%classified 0.3%covert knife 2.0%#ffd700 0.1%Immortal 0.2%restricted 42.3%extraordinary 0.4%Restricted 4.9%Mythical 6.2%milspec 42.0%best hit $739 (33.61x)