Hidden Pain

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

88.13%

EV $0.44 from 158 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.42%

4,267 openings, odds method

Variance

13.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.37%±30.06553 openings

7 days

94.34%±11.024,082 openings

30 days

93.42%±10.784,267 openings

since tracking started

93.42%±10.784,267 openings

62.5%93.3%124.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	553	93.37%±30.1	+0.3σ	odds
7d	4,082	94.34%±11.0	+1.1σ	odds
30d	4,267	93.42%±10.8	+1.0σ	odds
All	4,267	93.42%±10.8	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values158 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,924 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$124	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$118	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$98.92	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$81.42	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33,333	$76.27	0.5%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$68.35	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33,333	$60.75	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$50.49	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$49.18	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 20,000	$46.49	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$40.64	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$40.20	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 16,667	$34.18	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 16,667	$32.36	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14,286	$29.90	0.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$28.15	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$26.75	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$26.23	0.5%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$25.46	0.5%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$23.72	0.4%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12,500	$23.54	0.4%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 12,500	$23.50	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$21.66	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11,111	$21.08	0.4%	2	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$20.56	0.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$20.41	0.5%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 8,333	$15.78	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$15.66	0.4%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 8,333	$15.39	0.4%	3	0.6	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$13.66	0.5%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 7,143	$13.64	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$11.28	0.4%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 5,882	$11.28	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$11.28	0.5%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$10.29	0.4%	3	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$10.22	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,263	$10.17	0.4%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,762	$9.53	0.5%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$9.45	0.4%	3	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$9.17	0.5%	1	1.1	0.92×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 4,545	$8.86	0.4%	2	1.1	1.85×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,348	$8.77	0.5%	1	1.1	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,348	$8.75	0.5%	2	1.1	1.77×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,545	$8.68	0.4%	2	1.1	1.85×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$8.26	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$8.13	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,846	$7.56	0.4%	1	1.3	0.78×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$7.02	0.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 3,448	$6.70	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$6.64	0.5%	3	1.5	2.03×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,333	$6.59	0.4%	3	1.5	2.03×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 3,448	$6.58	0.4%	4	1.4	2.80×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,333	$6.42	0.4%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 3,030	$6.05	0.5%	2	1.6	1.23×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,125	$6.00	0.4%	2	1.6	1.27×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$5.96	0.4%	1	1.6	0.62×
AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$5.96	0.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$5.92	0.4%	2	1.6	1.23×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$5.82	0.4%	1	1.6	0.62×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$5.06	0.4%	3	1.9	1.60×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,273	$4.40	0.4%	2	2.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$4.22	0.5%	2	2.3	0.86×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,128	$4.19	0.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$4.16	0.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$4.15	0.4%	3	2.3	1.30×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,083	$4.10	0.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,041	$4.00	0.4%	5	2.4	2.07×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,041	$3.98	0.4%	1	2.4	0.41×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 2,041	$3.97	0.4%	3	2.4	1.24×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$3.82	0.4%	2	2.5	0.80×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,923	$3.78	0.4%	2	2.6	0.78×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,887	$3.67	0.4%	2	2.6	0.77×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,852	$3.65	0.4%	4	2.7	1.50×
AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,818	$3.52	0.4%	4	2.7	1.48×
P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,786	$3.52	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,786	$3.49	0.4%	0	2.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,754	$3.44	0.4%	4	2.8	1.43×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,754	$3.43	0.4%	4	2.8	1.43×
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$3.43	0.4%	3	2.8	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,667	$3.22	0.4%	3	3.0	1.02×
AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,613	$3.17	0.4%	1	3.1	0.33×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,613	$3.16	0.4%	4	3.1	1.31×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,613	$3.16	0.4%	6	3.1	1.97×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,538	$3.01	0.4%	6	3.2	1.87×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,538	$3.00	0.4%	2	3.2	0.62×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,515	$2.95	0.4%	5	3.2	1.54×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 1,449	$2.84	0.4%	3	3.4	0.88×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,370	$2.68	0.4%	3	3.6	0.83×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,351	$2.64	0.4%	3	3.6	0.82×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,351	$2.63	0.4%	5	3.6	1.37×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,299	$2.55	0.4%	7	3.8	1.85×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,282	$2.51	0.4%	2	3.8	0.52×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,282	$2.48	0.4%	2	3.8	0.52×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,220	$2.39	0.4%	4	4.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,220	$2.38	0.4%	5	4.0	1.24×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,190	$2.33	0.4%	1	4.1	0.24×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,190	$2.32	0.4%	4	4.1	0.97×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,136	$2.22	0.4%	4	4.3	0.92×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,136	$2.21	0.4%	3	4.3	0.69×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,000	$1.96	0.4%	2	4.9	0.41×
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 990	$1.93	0.4%	8	5.0	1.61×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 943	$1.84	0.4%	5	5.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$1.77	0.4%	9	5.5	1.65×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$1.75	0.4%	4	5.5	0.73×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 820	$1.61	0.4%	4	6.0	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 769	$1.51	0.4%	8	6.4	1.25×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 775	$1.51	0.4%	5	6.4	0.79×
P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 763	$1.49	0.4%	3	6.5	0.47×
P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 763	$1.49	0.4%	4	6.5	0.62×
P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 714	$1.40	0.4%	5	6.9	0.73×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 709	$1.39	0.4%	6	6.9	0.86×
P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 709	$1.38	0.4%	4	6.9	0.58×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 676	$1.32	0.4%	12	7.3	1.65×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 629	$1.23	0.4%	7	7.8	0.89×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 625	$1.22	0.4%	8	7.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 617	$1.21	0.4%	13	8.0	1.63×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 617	$1.20	0.4%	9	8.0	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 610	$1.19	0.4%	12	8.1	1.49×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 602	$1.18	0.4%	4	8.2	0.49×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 606	$1.18	0.4%	7	8.1	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 592	$1.16	0.4%	9	8.3	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 571	$1.12	0.4%	10	8.6	1.16×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 568	$1.11	0.4%	11	8.7	1.27×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 565	$1.10	0.4%	3	8.7	0.34×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 559	$1.09	0.4%	8	8.8	0.91×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 556	$1.09	0.4%	7	8.9	0.79×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 543	$1.06	0.4%	14	9.1	1.55×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 532	$1.04	0.4%	8	9.3	0.86×
P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 526	$1.03	0.4%	6	9.4	0.64×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 503	$0.98	0.4%	14	9.8	1.43×
P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 485	$0.95	0.4%	9	10.1	0.89×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 483	$0.94	0.4%	13	10.2	1.28×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 481	$0.94	0.4%	11	10.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 439	$0.86	0.4%	14	11.2	1.25×
P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 437	$0.85	0.4%	14	11.3	1.24×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 427	$0.83	0.4%	9	11.5	0.78×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 342	$0.67	0.4%	11	14.4	0.77×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 271	$0.53	0.4%	18	18.2	0.99×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 272	$0.53	0.4%	16	18.1	0.88×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 246	$0.48	0.4%	16	20.0	0.80×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 246	$0.48	0.4%	17	20.0	0.85×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$0.38	2.2%	141	125.4	1.12×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$0.38	2.2%	123	125.4	0.98×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 36	$0.35	2.2%	133	136.1	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.32	2.2%	161	149.0	1.08×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.32	2.2%	171	149.0	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 27	$0.26	2.2%	173	183.3	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.24	2.2%	185	198.6	0.93×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.24	2.2%	186	198.6	0.94×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 21	$0.20	2.2%	213	238.3	0.89×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 21	$0.20	2.2%	246	238.3	1.03×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.18	2.2%	255	264.7	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.16	2.2%	329	297.9	1.10×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$0.15	2.2%	317	317.7	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.12	2.2%	447	397.1	1.13×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.12	2.2%	396	397.1	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10	$0.10	2.2%	435	476.6	0.91×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10	$0.10	2.2%	462	476.5	0.97×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/hidden-pain, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified0Gniedojeb$0.50$69.54139.1x3d

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedxSPASYx$0.50$50.97101.9x5d

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkxSPASYx$0.50$29.9059.80x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedgecona$0.50$26.7553.50x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Contaminant (Well-Worn)weapon · blue„ skins.army” Oli$0.50$0.951.90x1m

Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecamonchan100$0.50$0.160.32x19m

UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffxxx$0.50$0.100.20x24m

UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffxxx$0.50$0.100.20x24m

UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffxxx$0.50$0.100.20x24m

UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffxxx$0.50$0.100.20x25m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalxxx$0.50$2.555.10x26m

UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffxxx$0.50$0.100.20x26m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffxxx$0.50$6.0512.10x26m

Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecxxx$0.50$0.320.64x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.13%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$0.50	88.13%	158
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$0.50	88.22%	158
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC	$0.50	88.13%	158
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$0.50	88.20%	158
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$0.50	88.17%	158
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$0.50	88.33%	158
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.50	88.05%	158
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$0.50	88.12%	158
4 Nov, 04:57 UTC	$0.50	88.16%	158

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.1%Classified 0.0%pink 0.0%Legendary 0.0%restricted 1.9%milspec 25.5%mil spec 0.2%Mythical 0.5%uncommon 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%blue 10.9%#8847ff 1.8%violet 2.4%Restricted 0.2%Rare 0.8%common 3.9%#4b69ff 51.4%best hit $69.54 (139.1x)