Hutong
A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.
Price
$0.50
Advertised RTP
87.98%
EV $0.44 from 62 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.26%
3,015 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,029 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hellcase:api/open/hutong, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $0.50 | 87.98% | 62 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $0.50 | 88.41% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.50 | 88.03% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $0.50 | 87.91% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $0.50 | 88.01% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $0.50 | 87.99% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $0.50 | 88.01% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $0.50 | 88.00% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $0.50 | 88.05% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.50 | 87.96% | 62 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $0.50 | 87.94% | 62 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 2.2%rare 0.2%industrial 28.6%milspec 27.9%#87c7ff 10.8%mil spec 7.3%consumer 1.6%Mil Spec Grade 4.6%#4b69ff 7.0%Rare 2.6%blue 4.5%Mil Spec 2.8%best hit $27.60 (55.20x)