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日本語

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$6.47
Advertised RTP
81.97%
EV $5.30 from 147 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values147 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 14,286$3280.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 12,500$2730.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$2000.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1980.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1930.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1910.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1870.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1640.4%00.0—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1510.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1460.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1430.4%00.0—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1400.4%00.0—
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1390.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$1360.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1350.4%00.0—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1320.4%00.0—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1310.4%00.0—
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1290.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 5,556$1280.4%00.0—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1270.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1260.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1250.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$1240.4%00.0—
AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1230.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1230.4%00.0—
AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1220.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1220.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1210.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1160.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$1130.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,762$1120.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 4,762$1110.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,762$1100.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,545$1060.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$1020.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 3,704$85.270.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 3,448$81.650.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,571$80.860.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,448$80.190.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,333$79.200.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,333$77.230.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 3,333$76.270.4%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny1 in 3,030$71.280.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 3,030$70.770.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,941$69.280.4%00.0—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,941$68.800.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 2,941$68.590.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 2,941$68.350.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,941$67.250.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,941$66.690.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 2,857$66.140.4%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 2,778$65.190.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,703$63.110.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,703$62.560.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,632$61.710.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 2,632$61.050.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 2,632$60.680.4%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 2,564$59.390.4%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 2,564$58.650.4%00.0—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,564$58.610.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,381$55.350.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,381$55.320.4%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 2,381$55.140.4%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 2,326$54.030.4%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 2,273$52.960.4%00.0—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,273$52.390.4%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 2,222$51.160.4%00.0—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,174$51.130.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,174$50.490.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,174$50.300.4%00.0—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,174$49.780.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 2,000$46.490.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,887$43.850.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,887$43.480.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,818$41.830.4%00.0—
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 1,754$40.800.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,754$40.640.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,639$37.890.4%00.0—
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,639$37.840.4%00.0—
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,587$36.640.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,538$35.820.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,449$33.510.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 1,389$32.360.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 1,333$30.970.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,316$30.720.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,282$29.550.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 1,250$29.160.4%00.0—
SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 1,220$28.540.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,220$28.320.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,111$25.820.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,099$25.460.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 980$22.720.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 935$21.660.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 901$20.850.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 885$20.560.4%00.0—
Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 870$20.140.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 862$19.980.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 763$17.640.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 719$16.690.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 699$16.230.4%00.0—
Glock-18 | Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 685$15.880.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 676$15.580.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 662$15.390.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 649$15.080.4%00.0—
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 592$13.750.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 543$12.560.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 505$11.740.4%00.0—
Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 505$11.690.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 498$11.540.4%00.0—
Glock-18 | Reactor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 493$11.420.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 485$11.260.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 483$11.250.4%00.0—
P250 | Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 472$10.910.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 469$10.910.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 448$10.370.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 410$9.500.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 397$9.170.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 395$9.140.4%00.0—
MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 370$8.580.4%00.0—
AWP | PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 356$8.260.4%00.0—
MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 351$8.140.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 341$7.900.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 293$6.810.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 270$6.260.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 259$6.000.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 257$5.960.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 255$5.920.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 42$4.932.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 42$4.912.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 41$4.812.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 39$4.602.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 39$4.552.2%00.0—
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 34$4.002.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 34$3.962.2%00.0—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 32$3.812.2%00.0—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 32$3.722.2%00.0—
P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 31$3.692.2%00.0—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 31$3.622.2%00.0—
AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 22$2.552.2%00.0—
AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 21$2.512.2%00.0—
AWP | PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 21$2.482.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 21$2.452.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 18$2.122.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 18$2.082.2%00.0—
P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 16$1.832.2%00.0—
P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet10.5%$1.122.2%00.0—
P250 | Vino Primo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted10.8%$1.092.2%00.0—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/japanese, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$6.4781.97%147
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC$6.4782.00%147
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%covert 1.3%classified 0.8%Ancient 0.0%restricted 38.9%Classified 0.1%sunny 0.0%covert knife 0.3%pink 0.5%Legendary 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%mil spec 7.3%#4b69ff 0.1%Mythical 10.9%Restricted 0.2%violet 13.2%milspec 7.8%#8847ff 8.0%Rare 4.8%blue 5.6%