Kingdom of Echoes

A case on Hellcase (trending), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.98%

EV $5.28 from 128 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.90%

397 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

63 openings · below min

7 days

86.90%±14.02397 openings

30 days

86.90%±14.02397 openings

since tracking started

86.90%±14.02397 openings

69.0%104.7%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	63	104.89%±35.1	—	odds
7d	397	86.90%±14.0	−0.2σ	odds
30d	397	86.90%±14.0	−0.2σ	odds
All	397	86.90%±14.0	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values128 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 409 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$293	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$158	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 4,000	$149	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$140	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$103	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$98.80	0.7%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,381	$88.72	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$76.61	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$59.34	0.7%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,282	$47.88	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,205	$45.18	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$44.45	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,176	$43.69	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$43.64	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$41.27	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,064	$39.85	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,064	$39.64	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$38.93	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$38.76	0.7%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 952	$35.73	0.7%	0	0.4	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 926	$34.50	0.7%	2	0.4	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 917	$34.24	0.7%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 877	$32.75	0.7%	1	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 763	$28.48	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 685	$25.70	0.7%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 654	$24.56	0.7%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 649	$24.25	0.7%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 599	$22.44	0.7%	1	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 565	$21.08	0.7%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 562	$21.02	0.7%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 546	$20.45	0.7%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 510	$19.07	0.7%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 503	$18.87	0.7%	2	0.8	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 478	$17.88	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 463	$17.35	0.7%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 461	$17.23	0.7%	0	0.9	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 461	$17.20	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 452	$16.91	0.7%	0	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 450	$16.77	0.7%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 446	$16.63	0.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 388	$14.49	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 385	$14.36	0.7%	1	1.1	0.94×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 379	$14.17	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 377	$14.08	0.7%	1	1.1	0.92×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 373	$13.94	0.7%	2	1.1	1.82×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 350	$13.09	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 323	$12.07	0.7%	2	1.3	1.58×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 314	$11.74	0.7%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 301	$11.26	0.7%	2	1.4	1.47×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 292	$10.91	0.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 290	$10.83	0.7%	1	1.4	0.71×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 282	$10.53	0.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 273	$10.21	0.7%	2	1.5	1.34×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 269	$10.04	0.7%	2	1.5	1.31×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 265	$9.88	0.7%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 258	$9.63	0.7%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 246	$9.20	0.7%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 245	$9.18	0.7%	2	1.7	1.20×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 243	$9.07	0.7%	2	1.7	1.19×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 238	$8.91	0.7%	2	1.7	1.16×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 238	$8.89	0.7%	1	1.7	0.58×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 234	$8.75	0.7%	3	1.7	1.72×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 233	$8.71	0.7%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 226	$8.44	0.7%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 225	$8.41	0.7%	1	1.8	0.55×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 222	$8.28	0.7%	3	1.8	1.63×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 217	$8.12	0.7%	2	1.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 216	$8.07	0.7%	5	1.9	2.64×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 211	$7.90	0.7%	2	1.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 211	$7.88	0.7%	2	1.9	1.03×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 207	$7.75	0.7%	0	2.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 202	$7.52	0.7%	3	2.0	1.48×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 201	$7.51	0.7%	0	2.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 198	$7.38	0.7%	1	2.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 196	$7.33	0.7%	1	2.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 195	$7.31	0.7%	1	2.1	0.48×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 195	$7.28	0.7%	3	2.1	1.43×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 191	$7.14	0.7%	3	2.1	1.40×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 186	$6.95	0.7%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 185	$6.92	0.7%	5	2.2	2.26×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 185	$6.91	0.7%	0	2.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 185	$6.89	0.7%	3	2.2	1.35×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 183	$6.84	0.7%	3	2.2	1.34×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 183	$6.82	0.7%	2	2.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 172	$6.44	0.7%	3	2.4	1.26×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 170	$6.35	0.7%	4	2.4	1.66×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 165	$6.16	0.7%	1	2.5	0.40×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 161	$6.03	0.7%	2	2.5	0.79×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 158	$5.91	0.7%	3	2.6	1.16×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 157	$5.88	0.7%	1	2.6	0.39×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 104	$5.26	1.0%	3	3.9	0.76×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$4.85	1.0%	6	4.3	1.41×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$4.78	1.0%	8	4.3	1.85×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 94	$4.76	1.0%	9	4.3	2.08×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 94	$4.74	1.0%	3	4.4	0.69×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 94	$4.73	1.0%	7	4.4	1.61×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 93	$4.71	1.0%	5	4.4	1.14×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$4.68	1.0%	3	4.4	0.68×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$4.64	1.0%	7	4.4	1.57×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$4.54	1.0%	3	4.5	0.66×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$4.52	1.0%	12	4.6	2.63×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 89	$4.48	1.0%	2	4.6	0.43×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 88	$4.46	1.0%	2	4.6	0.43×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$4.21	1.0%	5	4.9	1.02×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$4.15	1.0%	1	5.0	0.20×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 81	$4.11	1.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$4.03	1.0%	10	5.1	1.95×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$4.02	1.0%	3	5.1	0.58×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 79	$4.00	1.0%	3	5.2	0.58×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 78	$3.96	1.0%	9	5.2	1.73×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$3.91	1.0%	1	5.3	0.19×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$3.86	1.0%	6	5.3	1.12×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 76	$3.84	1.0%	6	5.4	1.12×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$3.38	1.0%	6	6.1	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$3.28	1.0%	8	6.3	1.27×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$3.19	1.0%	10	6.5	1.55×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$2.86	1.0%	7	7.2	0.97×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$2.29	1.0%	8	9.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$2.07	1.0%	13	10.0	1.30×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 38	$1.90	1.0%	12	10.9	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$1.52	1.0%	13	13.6	0.96×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.46	1.0%	14	14.1	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.44	1.0%	8	14.3	0.56×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.42	1.0%	15	14.5	1.03×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$1.36	1.0%	23	15.2	1.52×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.17	1.0%	18	17.6	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$0.98	1.0%	20	21.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.88	1.0%	14	23.4	0.60×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/kingdom-of-echoes, 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSkenderBeu$6.00$1.360.23x12m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDeepey 🜲$6.00$0.880.15x1h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHayS$6.00$0.880.15x2h

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedHayS$6.00$1.360.23x2h

MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkAHH TALVENJASKA$6.00$4.020.67x2h

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedHilly Hank$6.00$1.420.24x3h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkGENEZYZZZ$6.00$4.760.79x3h

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedGENEZYZZZ$6.00$1.360.23x3h

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedGENEZYZZZ$6.00$1.520.25x3h

Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryBodeaa;;$6.00$12.072.01x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$6.00	87.98%	128
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	128
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.00	88.22%	128
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	128
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	128
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	128
6 Nov, 23:48 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	128

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 15.7%covert 0.2%epic 0.0%red 0.4%restricted 49.4%Legendary 5.1%Restricted 2.7%Classified 2.3%pink 7.2%Mythical 1.8%#8847ff 7.0%violet 5.6%#d32ee6 2.6%best hit —