Kukri Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$200.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $176.00 from 101 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.29%

11 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

11 openings · below min

since tracking started

11 openings · below min

-0.5%76.8%154.0%

Small sample. 11 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	70.53%±82.6	—	odds
7d	8	83.31%±39.7	—	odds
30d	11	81.29%±33.8	—	odds
All	11	81.29%±33.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values101 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 31	$621	11.4%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$394	11.4%	1	0.6	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12	$238	11.4%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 11	$227	11.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 11	$218	11.4%	2	1.0	1.96×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10	$202	11.4%	3	1.1	2.74×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	10.8%	$187	11.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 469	$174	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 465	$173	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 459	$171	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 442	$165	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 441	$164	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 439	$163	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 431	$161	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 427	$159	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 410	$153	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 408	$152	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 402	$150	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 397	$148	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 388	$145	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 357	$133	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 352	$131	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 352	$131	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 347	$129	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 346	$129	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 345	$128	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 340	$127	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 336	$125	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 324	$121	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 321	$120	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 312	$116	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 298	$111	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 284	$106	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 282	$105	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$104	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 279	$104	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$101	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 269	$100	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 268	$99.86	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 263	$98.18	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 260	$97.26	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 251	$93.80	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 251	$93.63	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 246	$91.94	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 244	$90.99	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 241	$89.86	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 240	$89.78	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 239	$88.84	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 235	$87.86	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 234	$87.21	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 233	$86.84	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 223	$83.32	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 216	$80.66	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 216	$80.50	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 215	$80.15	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 215	$79.96	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 213	$79.55	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 209	$77.82	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 205	$76.54	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 204	$76.14	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 200	$74.73	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 197	$73.38	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 195	$72.53	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$71.87	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 179	$66.65	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$66.14	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$65.98	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 176	$65.81	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$65.34	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$65.03	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 173	$64.58	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 173	$64.50	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 171	$63.87	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 171	$63.80	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 169	$63.20	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$60.63	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 162	$60.35	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$60.29	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$59.16	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$59.04	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$58.92	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$55.97	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$55.84	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$55.71	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$55.42	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$55.36	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 148	$55.12	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 146	$54.36	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$54.10	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 144	$53.79	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 144	$53.77	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 144	$53.57	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 142	$53.13	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 142	$52.96	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 142	$52.85	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 141	$52.57	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 140	$52.29	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$51.49	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 137	$51.14	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 137	$50.98	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$49.65	0.2%	0	0.1	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/kukri, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeRAVN$200$64.580.32x16h

★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · ImmortalNOXX$200$2181.09x16h

★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal!DANNCHE$200$2261.13x5d

★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$200$82.560.41x5d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$200$3941.97x5d

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$200$98.410.49x5d

★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$200$50.850.25x5d

★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$200$2001.00x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$200	88.00%	101
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$200	88.00%	101

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.0%covert knife 39.0%Immortal 10.4%epic 0.5%sunny 0.2%Covert 0.3%gold 2.9%#ffd700 0.6%best hit —