Kuźnia

A case on Hellcase (poland-cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
88.81%
EV $0.89 from 158 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
39.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 68
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values158 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 50,000$3140.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2760.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2440.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2300.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2230.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2210.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2190.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2160.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2150.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$2150.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 50,000$2090.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 50,000$2030.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1990.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1830.6%00.0—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1750.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1740.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1590.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1590.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 50,000$1590.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1550.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1550.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 33,333$1530.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 50,000$1490.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1460.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1460.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1410.5%00.0—
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1400.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1400.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1400.5%00.0—
USP-S | Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 25,000$1280.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1210.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1180.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1130.5%00.0—
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1120.5%00.0—
USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 25,000$1110.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33,333$1050.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1040.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1030.5%00.0—
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1010.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25,000$94.530.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 25,000$93.340.4%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 20,000$89.050.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Serum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 25,000$86.830.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25,000$86.610.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 20,000$82.820.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20,000$80.940.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20,000$80.140.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20,000$79.420.4%00.0—
USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 20,000$77.820.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$77.770.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 20,000$75.180.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20,000$74.350.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 16,667$71.580.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 16,667$69.190.5%00.0—
USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 16,667$67.850.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 16,667$66.920.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 14,286$61.340.5%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 16,667$61.300.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 14,286$53.230.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 12,500$49.630.4%00.0—
USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 11,111$47.170.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 11,111$45.760.5%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 12,500$45.700.4%00.0—
USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 11,111$45.370.5%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 10,000$42.920.5%00.0—
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 10,000$40.160.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 9,091$40.020.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$39.500.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$38.620.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$38.420.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 9,091$37.830.5%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 9,091$37.450.5%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 8,333$35.030.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$34.790.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$34.780.4%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 7,692$32.030.5%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 7,692$31.810.5%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 7,692$30.680.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$30.260.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 7,143$29.900.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,250$25.360.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 5,882$24.610.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,882$24.400.5%00.0—
FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$24.170.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$23.960.4%00.0—
P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$23.440.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,556$22.500.5%00.0—
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 5,556$21.740.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$20.660.4%00.0—
M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 5,263$20.440.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 5,000$20.230.5%00.0—
FAMAS | Afterimage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 4,762$19.630.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 4,167$17.210.5%00.0—
P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 3,846$15.950.5%00.0—
P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 3,704$15.370.5%00.0—
P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 3,846$15.210.4%00.0—
P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce61 in 3,704$15.100.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 3,448$14.350.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 2,941$11.940.5%00.0—
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 2,439$10.070.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.090.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,754$7.070.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,613$6.540.5%00.0—
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 1,515$6.100.5%00.0—
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 1,316$5.320.5%00.0—
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 1,266$5.170.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,124$4.540.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 917$3.720.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 752$3.030.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 694$2.820.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 645$2.620.5%00.0—
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 606$2.460.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 602$2.440.5%00.0—
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 521$2.110.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 476$1.930.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 469$1.900.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 431$1.750.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 410$1.660.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 362$1.470.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 340$1.380.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 296$1.200.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 296$1.200.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 292$1.180.5%00.0—
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 282$1.140.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 269$1.090.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 256$1.040.5%00.0—
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 252$1.020.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 247$1.000.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 239$0.970.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 235$0.950.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 234$0.950.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 219$0.890.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 66$0.881.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 65$0.861.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 60$0.791.5%00.0—
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 59$0.781.5%00.0—
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 59$0.781.5%00.0—
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 57$0.761.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 57$0.761.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 54$0.721.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 54$0.711.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 48$0.641.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 48$0.641.5%00.0—
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 38$0.501.5%00.0—
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical1 in 38$0.501.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 38$0.501.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 36$0.481.5%00.0—
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 36$0.481.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 35$0.471.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 35$0.471.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 35$0.471.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 31 in 35$0.471.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 18$0.241.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 17$0.231.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 17$0.231.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 17$0.231.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff11.1%$0.121.5%00.0—
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare13.3%$0.101.5%00.0—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/kuznia, 10 Nov, 02:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$1.0088.81%158
8 Nov, 19:58 UTC$1.0088.95%158
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$1.0089.11%158
6 Nov, 05:20 UTC$1.0088.68%158
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$1.0088.79%158
3 Nov, 10:07 UTC$1.0088.87%158
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC$1.0088.72%158
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 2.8%Covert 0.0%covert 0.2%rare 0.1%red 0.1%classified 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.0%Ancient 0.0%pink 0.2%Legendary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%uncommon 0.1%#d32ce6 0.0%Classified 0.0%restricted 20.3%Mythical 5.4%#8847ff 0.4%#4b69ff 34.4%Restricted 0.4%violet 19.4%Rare 15.9%