Lore

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$160.00

Advertised RTP

84.99%

EV $135.99 from 105 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.57%

53 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

48 openings · below min

30 days

53 openings · below min

since tracking started

53 openings · below min

-0.5%72.8%146.0%

Small sample. 53 openings and 16.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	68.98%±76.4	—	odds
7d	48	83.99%±22.8	—	odds
30d	53	82.57%±21.7	—	odds
All	53	82.57%±21.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values105 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$1,880	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,222	$1,582	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,128	$1,539	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,724	$1,241	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,695	$1,221	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,587	$1,147	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,493	$1,070	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,389	$1,004	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,351	$979	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,351	$968	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,316	$956	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,250	$899	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,176	$857	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,124	$813	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,075	$778	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,064	$762	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,042	$750	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,031	$744	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 952	$689	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 909	$659	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 901	$648	0.5%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 885	$637	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 877	$635	0.5%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 840	$606	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 769	$555	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 719	$517	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 699	$508	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 641	$463	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 637	$459	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 613	$444	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 581	$417	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 559	$402	0.5%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 538	$389	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 488	$352	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$343	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 450	$325	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 433	$313	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 424	$306	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 422	$305	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 415	$299	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 413	$298	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 398	$288	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 395	$285	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 391	$282	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 383	$277	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 358	$259	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 347	$251	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 337	$243	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$240	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 332	$240	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 324	$233	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 297	$214	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 290	$210	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 290	$209	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 274	$198	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 272	$197	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 272	$196	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 261	$188	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 252	$182	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 242	$174	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 236	$170	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$168	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 224	$162	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 224	$162	0.5%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 220	$159	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 219	$158	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 214	$154	0.5%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$153	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 212	$153	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 204	$147	0.5%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 202	$145	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 201	$145	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 199	$144	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 196	$142	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 193	$140	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$139	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 48	$134	2.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 46	$128	2.1%	3	1.2	2.58×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 46	$128	2.1%	1	1.2	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 45	$126	2.1%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 45	$125	2.1%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 44	$124	2.1%	1	1.2	0.84×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 44	$124	2.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 44	$124	2.1%	3	1.2	2.50×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 44	$123	2.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$121	2.1%	1	1.2	0.81×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 42	$117	2.1%	1	1.3	0.79×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 42	$116	2.1%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 42	$116	2.1%	4	1.3	3.13×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 41	$115	2.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$112	2.1%	1	1.3	0.75×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 39	$110	2.1%	2	1.3	1.49×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 37	$103	2.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 36	$102	2.1%	2	1.5	1.38×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 36	$101	2.1%	5	1.5	3.40×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 36	$100	2.1%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 36	$99.38	2.1%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 31	$85.70	2.1%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 29	$80.47	2.1%	2	1.8	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 28	$79.67	2.1%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 27	$76.17	2.1%	1	1.9	0.51×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 26	$72.49	2.1%	1	2.0	0.49×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$70.81	2.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 24	$66.00	2.1%	7	2.2	3.11×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 24	$65.78	2.1%	3	2.3	1.33×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/lore, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rareMeo Lessi$160$6904.31x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$160$6343.96x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covertbongomurzynkongo$95.00$66.000.69x7h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covertJxzuno$160$1210.76x17h

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkick : Twillv98$160$1280.80x19h

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifekick : Twillv98$160$76.170.48x19h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertMOCNYBOT$160$1160.73x23h

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeBESARI$160$1260.79x1d

★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rareMeo Lessi$160$6904.31x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertgigi$160$79.670.50x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covertsabes$160$1010.63x2d

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertsabes$160$85.700.54x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$160	84.99%	105
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$160	85.00%	105
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$160	85.00%	105
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$160	84.99%	105
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$160	85.00%	105
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$160	85.00%	105
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$160	85.00%	105
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$160	84.99%	105
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$160	85.00%	105
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$160	84.93%	105
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$160	84.99%	105
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$160	84.99%	105

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 53.3%covert knife 33.7%gold 5.4%rare 0.1%epic 0.1%Covert 5.2%Immortal 2.2%best hit $690 (4.31x)