M9 Bayonet

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$550.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $484.02 from 168 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.84%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
2 openings · below min
7 days
28 openings · below min
30 days
32 openings · below min
since tracking started
32 openings · below min
61.0%107.0%153.0%

Small sample. 32 openings and 13.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2107.02%±45.5—odds
7d2889.83%±11.8—odds
30d3290.84%±11.0—odds
All3290.84%±11.0—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values168 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,941$4,8910.3%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 917$1,5190.3%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 917$1,5060.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 833$1,3750.3%10.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 800$1,3200.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare1 in 794$1,3200.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 775$1,2860.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 763$1,2650.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 741$1,2210.3%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 714$1,1820.3%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 690$1,1370.3%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 676$1,1160.3%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 633$1,0440.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 625$1,0320.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 617$1,0210.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 602$9980.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 599$9900.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 592$9790.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 578$9560.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 578$9550.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 575$9500.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 565$9350.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 532$8790.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 526$8680.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 521$8600.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 518$8570.3%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 515$8490.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 505$8350.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 503$8300.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 498$8190.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 483$8020.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 483$7970.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 478$7920.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 474$7830.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 472$7780.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 469$7750.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 465$7690.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 461$7620.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 459$7580.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 459$7550.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 455$7500.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 444$7340.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 433$7150.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 433$7140.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 429$7090.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 429$7090.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 426$7030.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 424$7010.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 424$7000.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 418$6920.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 418$6910.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 415$6850.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 413$6820.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 408$6730.3%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 407$6720.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 405$6690.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 403$6680.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 403$6650.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 400$6620.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 397$6550.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 391$6460.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 389$6440.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 388$6390.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 388$6390.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 388$6380.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 386$6370.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 385$6360.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 383$6340.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 383$6340.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 379$6250.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 376$6200.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 373$6180.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 370$6120.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 366$6060.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 366$6040.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 365$6020.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 364$6000.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 364$6000.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 361$5980.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 361$5960.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 360$5920.3%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 355$5880.3%20.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 350$5780.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 348$5770.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 348$5750.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 348$5750.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 340$5620.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 338$5580.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 337$5570.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 336$5550.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 333$5500.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 332$5490.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 327$5400.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 325$5380.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 323$5330.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 319$5270.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 317$5240.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 315$5210.3%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 313$5170.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 309$5100.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 307$5070.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · knifes1 in 305$5040.3%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 300$4970.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 299$4940.3%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 299$4940.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 299$4930.3%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 295$4880.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 294$4850.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 93$4711.1%10.3—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 92$4681.1%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 92$4681.1%10.3—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes1 in 91$4661.1%00.3—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 91$4641.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 91$4631.1%20.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 91$4621.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 90$4581.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 90$4581.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 90$4571.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 89$4531.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes1 in 89$4521.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 88$4471.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 87$4451.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 87$4441.1%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 87$4431.1%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 87$4421.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 87$4411.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 86$4401.1%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 86$4381.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 86$4371.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 86$4361.1%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 85$4351.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 85$4331.1%20.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 84$4281.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 84$4271.1%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 83$4251.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 83$4221.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 83$4201.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 82$4181.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 82$4181.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 81$4151.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 81$4141.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 81$4131.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 81$4111.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 80$4091.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 80$4081.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 80$4071.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 79$4051.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 79$4041.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 79$4031.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 78$3991.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 78$3991.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 77$3931.1%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 77$3911.1%10.4—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 77$3911.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd7001 in 76$3851.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · knifes1 in 75$3811.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 73$3731.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 73$3721.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes1 in 71$3621.1%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 71$3601.1%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 71$3601.1%00.5—
★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 71$3591.1%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 70$3581.1%00.5—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #EB4B4B1 in 70$3571.1%10.5—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 69$3491.1%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 68$3471.1%00.5—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 65$3331.1%10.5—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 63$3221.1%10.5—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/m9-bayonet, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$55088.00%168
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC$55088.00%168
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$55088.00%168
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$55088.00%168
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$55087.99%168
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$55088.00%168
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$55088.00%168
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$55087.99%168
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$55088.00%168
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC$55087.92%168
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC$55088.00%168
3 Nov, 05:35 UTC$55088.00%168
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 28.8%covert knife 53.0%Immortal 0.1%rare 0.1%Covert 4.2%sunny 1.8%knifes 5.7%epic 0.2%#EB4B4B 3.4%gold 1.1%#ffd700 1.3%best hit $1,362 (2.48x)