Navaja Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$250.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $220.00 from 137 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.30%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

45.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

37.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

37.0%91.3%145.5%

Small sample. 3 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	3	91.30%±53.7	—	odds
30d	3	91.30%±53.7	—	odds
All	3	91.30%±53.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values137 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife	11.9%	$401	21.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	16.3%	$293	21.7%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	16.9%	$283	21.7%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	17.3%	$276	21.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$220	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,010	$220	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,010	$219	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 952	$208	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 952	$206	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 870	$190	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 870	$190	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 862	$189	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 855	$187	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 806	$175	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 787	$171	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 746	$163	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 746	$163	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 725	$159	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 719	$157	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 694	$152	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 685	$150	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 671	$146	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 662	$145	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 649	$142	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 641	$140	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 629	$138	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 617	$135	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 613	$133	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 599	$131	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 592	$128	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 575	$126	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 559	$122	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 556	$122	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 546	$119	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 532	$116	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 513	$112	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 508	$111	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 505	$110	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 503	$110	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 498	$108	0.1%	1	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 498	$108	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 498	$108	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 478	$104	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 469	$102	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 455	$99.35	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 455	$98.78	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 444	$97.09	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 442	$96.79	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 431	$94.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 429	$93.63	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 426	$92.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 426	$92.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 418	$91.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 412	$89.97	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 410	$89.39	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 410	$89.39	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 403	$88.19	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 403	$88.00	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 398	$86.92	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 391	$85.36	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 388	$84.52	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 388	$84.39	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 380	$82.86	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 369	$80.51	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 366	$80.02	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 366	$79.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 365	$79.79	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 362	$79.12	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 362	$79.07	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 361	$78.83	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 360	$78.35	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 357	$78.05	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 353	$77.06	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 341	$74.53	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 338	$73.62	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 336	$73.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$72.74	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 332	$72.41	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 329	$71.71	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 323	$70.34	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 322	$70.18	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 319	$69.74	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 316	$68.91	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 314	$68.59	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 312	$68.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 311	$67.73	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 306	$66.75	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 306	$66.71	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 305	$66.63	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 304	$66.35	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 302	$65.93	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 300	$65.50	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$65.19	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 298	$64.84	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 294	$64.20	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 290	$63.38	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 290	$63.25	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 289	$63.11	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 289	$63.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$62.38	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 283	$61.87	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$61.41	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 280	$61.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 278	$60.68	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 275	$59.86	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 271	$59.12	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 256	$55.72	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 255	$55.61	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 255	$55.55	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 254	$55.55	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 253	$55.14	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 252	$54.98	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 251	$54.71	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$53.78	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$53.61	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 243	$53.04	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 243	$52.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 242	$52.73	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 235	$51.25	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 235	$51.16	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 234	$51.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 234	$51.08	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 230	$50.20	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 230	$50.19	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 229	$49.94	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 227	$49.63	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 227	$49.52	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 227	$49.46	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 225	$49.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 223	$48.61	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 222	$48.53	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 222	$48.47	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 222	$48.43	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 221	$48.28	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 220	$47.99	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 219	$47.69	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 216	$47.23	0.1%	0	0.0	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/navaja, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGreen$250$2931.17x5d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGreen$250$1080.43x5d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGreen$250$2831.13x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$250	88.02%	137
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$250	88.00%	137
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$250	88.00%	137

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 82.3%sunny 0.1%covert 11.3%#ffd700 1.0%Immortal 1.2%Covert 1.0%gold 3.0%best hit —