Nest

A case on Hellcase (chicken-raise), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.96%

EV $5.28 from 227 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.26%

765 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

62 openings · below min

7 days

92.90%±12.13607 openings

30 days

92.26%±10.83765 openings

since tracking started

92.26%±10.83765 openings

40.0%78.5%117.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	62	78.35%±37.9	—	odds
7d	607	92.90%±12.1	+0.8σ	odds
30d	765	92.26%±10.8	+0.8σ	odds
All	765	92.26%±10.8	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values227 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 766 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$343	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 33,333	$317	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33,333	$283	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$253	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$238	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$228	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$227	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 25,000	$207	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20,000	$191	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$176	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$166	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$165	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$156	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$155	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$152	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$150	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$145	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$144	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$143	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$140	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$133	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$128	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 12,500	$125	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$121	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$118	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$112	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 11,111	$112	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$111	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$92.61	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$88.24	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$85.44	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$85.27	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$85.22	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 8,333	$85.21	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 8,333	$83.14	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 8,333	$82.24	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$79.96	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$79.39	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$78.21	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$77.82	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$71.39	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$71.02	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$68.19	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$67.58	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$66.92	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 6,250	$64.19	0.2%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$61.76	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 6,250	$61.54	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$60.80	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$59.32	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$55.85	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$55.55	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$55.52	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$55.25	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 5,263	$53.35	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$51.03	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$50.77	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$50.30	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$46.92	0.2%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,762	$46.44	0.2%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$45.37	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$45.18	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$45.02	0.2%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$44.96	0.2%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$44.14	0.2%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$44.03	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$41.80	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$40.56	0.2%	2	0.2	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,167	$40.02	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$40.00	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,000	$39.83	0.2%	1	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$39.61	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 4,000	$39.52	0.2%	1	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$38.70	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$38.12	0.2%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 3,846	$38.05	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$37.82	0.2%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$37.52	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,704	$36.57	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,704	$36.19	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,571	$36.04	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,571	$35.83	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$35.39	0.2%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,571	$35.35	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,571	$34.78	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$34.60	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$34.24	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 3,448	$33.86	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,333	$33.76	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$33.75	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,226	$32.85	0.2%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 3,125	$31.38	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$30.81	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$30.78	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$30.43	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$30.07	0.2%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,941	$29.41	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,857	$28.88	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$28.84	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$28.16	0.2%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$27.73	0.2%	1	0.3	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$26.34	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$26.14	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$26.13	0.2%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 2,564	$25.96	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$25.21	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,564	$25.21	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$25.20	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,500	$25.07	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$24.27	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$23.35	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,273	$22.64	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$21.80	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$21.49	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$21.02	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$20.01	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$19.98	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,961	$19.21	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$19.13	0.2%	2	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,887	$18.83	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$18.72	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,852	$18.39	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$18.08	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$17.93	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$17.39	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$17.34	0.2%	2	0.4	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$17.24	0.2%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,667	$16.63	0.2%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,667	$16.34	0.2%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$16.27	0.2%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,613	$16.23	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$16.20	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$15.98	0.2%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$15.95	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,587	$15.58	0.2%	0	0.5	—
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,493	$14.82	0.2%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,449	$14.40	0.2%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$14.12	0.2%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,408	$14.08	0.2%	1	0.5	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,408	$14.04	0.2%	2	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,408	$13.92	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$13.61	0.2%	1	0.6	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$13.55	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$13.44	0.2%	0	0.6	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$13.26	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$13.26	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$13.17	0.2%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$13.15	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$12.99	0.2%	1	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,299	$12.97	0.2%	0	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,299	$12.89	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,282	$12.86	0.2%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,282	$12.68	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,266	$12.56	0.2%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,176	$11.74	0.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,163	$11.54	0.2%	0	0.7	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,149	$11.39	0.2%	4	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,136	$11.36	0.2%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 1,149	$11.35	0.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 1,087	$10.84	0.2%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,087	$10.83	0.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,075	$10.70	0.2%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,064	$10.53	0.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$10.41	0.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,031	$10.21	0.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,010	$10.04	0.2%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$10.00	0.2%	2	0.8	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$9.91	0.2%	0	0.8	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 980	$9.79	0.2%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 962	$9.59	0.2%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 962	$9.57	0.2%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 952	$9.50	0.2%	3	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 917	$9.12	0.2%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$9.06	0.2%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$8.99	0.2%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 901	$8.97	0.2%	1	0.9	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 870	$8.65	0.2%	0	0.9	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 862	$8.54	0.2%	4	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 855	$8.46	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 847	$8.44	0.2%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 833	$8.26	0.2%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 820	$8.12	0.2%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 800	$7.90	0.2%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 794	$7.89	0.2%	1	1.0	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 781	$7.76	0.2%	0	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$7.39	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 699	$6.96	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 662	$6.56	0.2%	1	1.2	0.86×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 649	$6.46	0.2%	1	1.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 641	$6.36	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 625	$6.18	0.2%	1	1.2	0.82×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 617	$6.15	0.2%	2	1.2	1.61×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 606	$6.00	0.2%	2	1.3	1.58×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 595	$5.91	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 592	$5.88	0.2%	1	1.3	0.77×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 543	$5.42	0.2%	12	1.4	8.51×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 532	$5.29	0.2%	11	1.4	7.64×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$5.12	2.1%	15	16.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$4.98	2.1%	20	17.0	1.17×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$4.98	2.1%	26	17.0	1.53×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$4.81	2.1%	15	17.6	0.85×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$4.68	2.1%	15	18.1	0.83×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$4.60	2.1%	17	18.4	0.92×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$4.55	2.1%	14	18.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 41	$4.53	2.1%	21	18.7	1.12×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 40	$4.46	2.1%	18	19.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$4.44	2.1%	29	19.1	1.52×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$4.40	2.1%	19	19.3	0.99×
P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$4.25	2.1%	15	20.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 38	$4.21	2.1%	17	20.2	0.84×
P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$4.16	2.1%	21	20.4	1.03×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$3.95	2.1%	24	21.5	1.12×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.81	2.1%	17	22.3	0.76×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$3.80	2.1%	21	22.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.76	2.1%	18	22.6	0.80×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.75	2.1%	25	22.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 33	$3.70	2.1%	24	22.9	1.05×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 33	$3.62	2.1%	25	23.4	1.07×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$3.60	2.1%	20	23.6	0.85×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$3.58	2.1%	20	23.7	0.84×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$3.51	2.1%	18	24.2	0.74×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$3.32	2.1%	29	25.6	1.13×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$3.25	2.1%	20	26.1	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$3.15	2.1%	27	26.9	1.00×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$2.76	2.1%	26	30.7	0.85×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$2.51	2.1%	30	33.8	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$1.51	2.1%	59	56.2	1.05×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/nest, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · CovertIMA$6.00$31252.05x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted.$6.00$5.120.85x2m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkFa1TH$6.00$3.150.53x35m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPizdatiy$6.00$4.440.74x40m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkPizdatiy$6.00$3.950.66x41m

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPizdatiy$6.00$4.980.83x41m

P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkHyskade$6.00$4.160.69x42m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink/404 ERROR ツ$6.00$3.510.59x1h

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBEELZ$6.00$4.600.77x1h

AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6CIASNA ANIA skins.army$6.00$3.620.60x3h

AWP | Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkCaviar$6.00$3.750.63x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$6.00	87.96%	227
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	227
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	227
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	87.90%	227
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.00	88.06%	227
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	227
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	227
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.00	87.96%	227
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.00	88.04%	227
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$6.00	88.05%	227
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.00	88.05%	227
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	227

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%Covert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Ancient 0.1%classified 10.7%rare 0.2%red 0.2%restricted 30.4%#eb4b4b 0.1%pink 40.8%#d32ee6 0.5%Restricted 0.1%Classified 0.3%#d32ce6 3.5%Legendary 0.1%violet 6.5%#8847ff 2.7%Mythical 3.5%best hit $312 (52.05x)