Never Again

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$8.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $7.04 from 163 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.43%

85 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

83 openings · below min

30 days

85 openings · below min

since tracking started

85 openings · below min

-0.5%70.8%142.0%

Small sample. 85 openings and 12.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	63.45%±77.7	—	odds
7d	83	103.09%±27.1	—	odds
30d	85	104.43%±26.8	—	odds
All	85	104.43%±26.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values163 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 95 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,263	$162	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$131	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$126	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$119	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$119	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$98.17	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$93.40	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$93.24	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$85.09	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$80.27	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$73.38	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$71.28	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$70.33	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$69.47	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$68.64	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$67.80	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,174	$66.54	0.4%	1	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$65.79	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$65.63	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,041	$63.77	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,961	$61.23	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,786	$55.55	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,724	$53.59	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$53.24	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$52.86	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$51.84	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$51.84	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$49.95	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,613	$49.54	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$49.13	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,562	$48.34	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$47.17	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,449	$45.27	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,408	$43.62	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,282	$39.64	0.4%	1	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,282	$39.33	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,176	$36.78	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,124	$34.60	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,111	$34.12	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,010	$31.38	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$31.33	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 980	$30.26	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 962	$29.86	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 962	$29.64	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 909	$28.11	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 901	$28.09	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 901	$27.98	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 893	$27.73	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 893	$27.55	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 885	$27.35	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 870	$26.96	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 870	$26.78	0.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 855	$26.48	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 855	$26.39	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 840	$26.19	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 847	$26.14	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 847	$26.14	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 840	$26.13	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$26.11	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 840	$25.99	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$25.89	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$25.82	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$25.76	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$25.59	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 820	$25.33	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 813	$25.21	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 813	$25.21	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 806	$24.88	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 794	$24.48	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 781	$24.16	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 775	$24.12	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 781	$24.05	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 775	$23.91	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 769	$23.89	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 769	$23.87	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 769	$23.82	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 769	$23.76	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 763	$23.65	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 746	$23.13	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 741	$23.04	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 725	$22.44	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 714	$22.15	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 709	$22.00	0.4%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 676	$20.92	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 658	$20.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 649	$20.14	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 625	$19.41	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 610	$18.87	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 602	$18.70	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 578	$17.94	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 556	$17.23	0.4%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 549	$17.01	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 532	$16.41	0.4%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 518	$16.00	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 503	$15.58	0.4%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 478	$14.82	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 476	$14.74	0.4%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 467	$14.47	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 452	$14.02	0.4%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 446	$13.84	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 442	$13.75	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 433	$13.38	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 422	$13.09	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 420	$12.99	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 410	$12.68	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 379	$11.74	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 370	$11.49	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 366	$11.35	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 364	$11.27	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 364	$11.26	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 364	$11.25	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 356	$11.03	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 352	$10.91	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 351	$10.84	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 345	$10.70	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 334	$10.37	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 330	$10.21	0.4%	1	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 326	$10.11	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 318	$9.87	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 310	$9.59	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 310	$9.57	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 308	$9.50	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 284	$8.79	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 265	$8.20	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$6.96	1.2%	2	1.1	1.79×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$6.82	1.2%	1	1.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 79	$6.47	1.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 79	$6.46	1.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 78	$6.37	1.2%	1	1.2	0.82×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 77	$6.36	1.2%	1	1.2	0.82×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$6.26	1.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 73	$6.03	1.2%	3	1.3	2.32×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 73	$6.00	1.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 72	$5.88	1.2%	2	1.3	1.51×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$5.88	1.2%	1	1.3	0.75×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$5.46	1.2%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 66	$5.42	1.2%	2	1.4	1.39×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 64	$5.26	1.2%	1	1.5	0.67×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 64	$5.26	1.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 64	$5.25	1.2%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$4.98	1.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$4.97	1.2%	1	1.6	0.64×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$4.69	1.2%	1	1.7	0.60×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$4.44	1.2%	5	1.8	2.85×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$3.88	1.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$3.86	1.2%	1	2.0	0.50×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$3.85	1.2%	2	2.0	0.99×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$3.81	1.2%	1	2.0	0.49×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$3.81	1.2%	2	2.0	0.98×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$3.75	1.2%	5	2.1	2.41×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$3.72	1.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$3.62	1.2%	1	2.2	0.46×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$3.25	1.2%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 38	$3.09	1.2%	6	2.5	2.38×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$2.77	1.2%	3	2.8	1.07×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$2.76	1.2%	2	2.8	0.71×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.68	1.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.68	1.2%	3	2.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$2.62	1.2%	2	3.0	0.67×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$2.51	1.2%	1	3.1	0.32×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.96	1.2%	6	4.0	1.51×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$1.93	1.2%	5	4.0	1.24×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 23	$1.90	1.2%	5	4.1	1.22×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/never-again, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

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Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffMaldini$8.00$2.680.34x2h

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMaldini$8.00$6.370.80x2h

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffDéou$8.00$9.571.20x4h

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommonManuel Raymond$8.00$6.820.85x8h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKW1AT$8.00$10.371.30x10h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedS(ixten)$8.00$1.900.24x19h

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedS(ixten)$8.00$4.440.56x19h

Zeus x27 | Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkS(ixten)$8.00$3.880.49x19h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNIIIIIIII$8.00$1.960.25x20h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSwifty$8.00$2.770.35x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	163
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	163
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC	$8.00	87.99%	163
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$8.00	87.99%	163
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	163
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	163
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$8.00	87.98%	163
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$8.00	87.86%	163
4 Nov, 04:57 UTC	$8.00	87.98%	163

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 3.7%classified 15.1%rare 0.9%restricted 38.6%Classified 3.6%Restricted 7.1%#d32ee6 2.5%#d32ce6 1.6%pink 12.0%violet 3.6%#8847ff 3.4%Mythical 6.8%uncommon 1.2%best hit —