Nomad Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$280.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $246.40 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d

124.87%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

85.0%124.8%164.5%

Small sample. 5 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	5	124.87%±39.2	—	odds
30d	5	124.87%±39.2	—	odds
All	5	124.87%±39.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 96	$702	3.0%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 91	$661	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 70	$514	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 66	$478	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 61	$445	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 54	$396	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 52	$380	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 51	$375	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 51	$374	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$362	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 49	$358	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 49	$354	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 48	$353	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 48	$348	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 45	$331	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 44	$322	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 43	$312	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 41	$298	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$292	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 39	$287	3.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 39	$285	3.0%	2	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 39	$284	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 37	$271	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 36	$262	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 34	$250	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 350	$246	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 342	$241	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 340	$239	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$235	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 328	$231	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 328	$231	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 327	$230	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 318	$224	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 301	$212	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$211	0.3%	1	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 292	$206	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 289	$204	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 289	$203	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 287	$202	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 282	$199	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 282	$198	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 274	$193	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 265	$186	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 263	$185	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$185	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 259	$182	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 259	$182	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 253	$178	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 252	$177	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 251	$176	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$175	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 242	$170	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 242	$170	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 241	$170	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 239	$168	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 235	$165	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 234	$165	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 234	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 234	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 229	$161	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 225	$158	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 220	$155	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 217	$153	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 212	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 211	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 209	$147	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 207	$146	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 206	$145	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 205	$144	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 201	$141	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 195	$138	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 194	$136	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$136	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 188	$133	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 186	$131	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 184	$129	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 179	$126	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 178	$126	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 176	$124	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$123	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$123	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 172	$121	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 171	$121	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 170	$120	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 170	$120	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$118	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$118	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$114	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$113	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$113	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 156	$110	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$109	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 152	$107	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$106	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$105	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 144	$101	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 144	$101	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$101	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 142	$100	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 142	$99.68	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 140	$98.86	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 136	$96.05	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 136	$96.00	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 136	$95.83	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 135	$94.83	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 134	$94.37	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 134	$93.89	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$93.89	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 132	$92.81	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 131	$92.51	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 131	$92.22	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 131	$91.90	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 127	$89.53	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 127	$89.40	0.3%	0	0.0	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/nomad-knife, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary지금 뭐 보고 있어?$280$7132.55x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold!DANNCHE$280$2811.00x1d

★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife지금 뭐 보고 있어?$280$2811.00x3d

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary지금 뭐 보고 있어?$280$7132.55x3d

★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold지금 뭐 보고 있어?$280$2811.00x3d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife지금 뭐 보고 있어?$280$1930.69x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$280	87.96%	116
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$280	88.00%	116
3 Nov, 05:35 UTC	$280	88.00%	116

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 5.4%covert knife 55.5%Immortal 2.8%rare 3.9%covert 21.8%epic 5.4%gold 3.3%Covert 1.9%best hit $713 (2.55x)