Nothing Has A Face

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $44.00 from 135 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.37%

77 openings, odds method

Variance

5.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

50 openings · below min

30 days

77 openings · below min

since tracking started

77 openings · below min

15.5%83.3%151.0%

Small sample. 77 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	50	83.11%±67.0	—	odds
30d	77	79.37%±54.1	—	odds
All	77	79.37%±54.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values135 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 11,111	$3,147	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$2,127	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 6,667	$2,118	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$1,964	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$1,913	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$1,851	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$1,728	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$1,618	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$1,611	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,518	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$1,435	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$1,292	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$1,256	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$1,081	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$989	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,125	$961	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$928	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$910	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$899	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 2,941	$896	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,632	$808	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,703	$806	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$799	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$791	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,564	$775	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$767	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$744	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,439	$742	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,381	$725	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$675	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$657	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$529	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$522	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$468	0.7%	1	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$466	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$462	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$431	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$421	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$409	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$395	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$392	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$370	0.7%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$328	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$326	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$325	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,031	$312	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$303	0.7%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 935	$283	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 926	$282	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$277	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$277	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 893	$270	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 826	$250	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 800	$243	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 752	$228	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 694	$211	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$203	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 671	$203	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 645	$196	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 602	$183	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 595	$181	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 562	$170	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 535	$162	0.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 529	$160	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 510	$154	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 508	$154	0.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 478	$145	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 478	$145	0.7%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 457	$138	0.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 442	$134	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 441	$133	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 439	$133	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 435	$132	0.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$132	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 408	$124	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 407	$123	0.7%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 402	$122	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 394	$119	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 392	$119	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 386	$117	0.7%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 372	$112	0.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 344	$104	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 322	$97.31	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 316	$95.87	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 312	$94.53	0.7%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 294	$89.03	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 293	$88.77	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$86.53	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 273	$82.82	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 272	$82.61	0.7%	1	0.3	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 270	$82.03	0.7%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 270	$81.80	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 270	$81.58	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 268	$81.31	0.7%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 268	$81.12	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 266	$80.71	0.7%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 266	$80.68	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 265	$80.27	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 263	$79.77	0.7%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 255	$77.48	0.7%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 246	$74.45	0.7%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 242	$73.21	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 241	$73.02	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 240	$72.59	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 239	$72.32	0.7%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 239	$72.29	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 237	$71.93	0.7%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 235	$71.18	0.7%	1	0.3	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 226	$68.39	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 223	$67.54	0.7%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 219	$66.36	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 211	$63.94	0.7%	0	0.4	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 177	$53.63	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 176	$53.27	0.7%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 168	$50.96	0.7%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 155	$47.00	0.7%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 153	$46.33	0.7%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$45.25	0.7%	1	0.5	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$42.74	1.1%	2	0.9	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 86	$41.73	1.1%	0	0.9	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 86	$41.62	1.1%	1	0.9	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$40.03	1.1%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 60	$29.15	1.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 56	$27.24	1.1%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 55	$26.51	1.1%	2	1.4	1.42×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 48	$23.28	1.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$13.98	1.1%	3	2.7	1.12×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 29	$13.92	1.1%	1	2.7	0.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$8.46	1.1%	5	4.4	1.13×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16	$7.84	1.1%	7	4.8	1.47×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 15	$7.29	1.1%	4	5.1	0.78×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 15	$7.15	1.1%	9	5.2	1.73×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	10.4%	$4.66	1.1%	9	8.0	1.12×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	10.4%	$4.65	1.1%	8	8.0	1.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	10.8%	$4.49	1.1%	8	8.3	0.96×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/nothing-has-a-face, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$50.00$8.460.17x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLimitless$50.00$7.840.16x4d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedspyhidden$50.00$7.840.16x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedspyhidden$50.00$7.290.15x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedmute.janis$50.00$8.460.17x5d

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkAttila$50.00$4.390.09x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertmute.janis$50.00$4689.36x5d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Well-Worn)gloves · sunnypNk.-$50.00$1332.66x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedReawaken$50.00$7.290.15x5d

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkBart Sampson$50.00$4.640.09x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$50.00	88.00%	135
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$50.00	88.04%	135
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$50.00	88.06%	135
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$50.00	87.96%	135
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$50.00	87.98%	135
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$50.00	87.94%	135

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 19.7%covert knife 0.1%classified 24.2%restricted 0.0%rare 0.1%Covert 2.1%Extraordinary 0.3%sunny 0.5%red 4.6%#eb4b4b 3.1%Ancient 2.7%gold 0.6%Legendary 13.9%#d32ee6 6.8%pink 21.2%best hit —