Pale Ritual

A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

58.79%

153 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

116 openings · below min

30 days

153 openings · below min

since tracking started

153 openings · below min

18.5%103.7%189.0%

Small sample. 153 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	103.93%±84.6	—	sample
7d	116	48.35%±9.54	—	sample
30d	153	58.79%±11.7	—	sample
All	153	58.79%±11.7	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogHellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$4.00$1.000.25x5h

Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffCustomPlay$4.00$1.230.31x5h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalshacky$4.00$1.060.27x12h

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalNeaKătă$4.00$1.900.48x17h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specljanmmii.exe$4.00$10.342.59x18h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Blueprint (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecljanmmii.exe$4.00$11.262.82x18h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetljanmmii.exe$4.00$2.310.58x18h

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMatełko$4.00$1.860.47x1d

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMatełko$4.00$1.900.48x1d

Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedbehadin$4.00$1.620.41x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —