Probably Dead

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

87.94%

EV $0.44 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.34%

78.8K openings, odds method

Variance

7.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.61%±5.569,114 openings

7 days

87.23%±2.0964.8K openings

30 days

87.34%±1.9078.8K openings

since tracking started

87.34%±1.9078.8K openings

84.5%91.3%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9,114	91.61%±5.56	+1.3σ	odds
7d	64.8K	87.23%±2.09	−0.7σ	odds
30d	78.8K	87.34%±1.90	−0.7σ	odds
All	78.8K	87.34%±1.90	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$38.32	1.7%	23	15.0	1.53×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$24.66	1.7%	26	24.5	1.06×
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$23.52	1.7%	25	25.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$22.50	1.7%	17	26.8	0.63×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$20.66	1.7%	31	28.4	1.09×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$17.49	1.8%	40	34.7	1.15×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$15.85	1.7%	36	37.9	0.95×
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$15.46	1.8%	35	39.4	0.89×
P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$15.16	1.7%	29	39.4	0.74×
P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,000	$15.10	1.7%	29	39.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,000	$7.57	1.7%	75	78.9	0.95×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 971	$7.33	1.7%	80	81.2	0.98×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 800	$6.08	1.7%	102	98.6	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 461	$3.50	1.7%	148	171.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 431	$3.28	1.7%	209	183.0	1.14×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 388	$2.95	1.7%	198	203.5	0.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 280	$2.13	1.7%	302	281.6	1.07×
Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 216	$1.64	1.7%	346	365.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 171	$1.30	1.7%	503	460.6	1.09×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 162	$1.23	1.7%	526	487.5	1.08×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 152	$1.15	1.7%	539	520.6	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 149	$1.13	1.7%	537	530.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 149	$1.13	1.7%	527	530.1	0.99×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 147	$1.12	1.7%	592	534.8	1.11×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 132	$1.00	1.7%	631	598.7	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 129	$0.98	1.7%	645	611.3	1.06×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 113	$0.86	1.7%	691	696.5	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 110	$0.84	1.7%	750	713.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 96	$0.73	1.7%	827	821.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 93	$0.71	1.7%	879	844.0	1.04×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 94	$0.71	1.7%	844	843.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.70	1.7%	848	855.8	0.99×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 88	$0.67	1.7%	1,198	894.5	1.34×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 86	$0.65	1.7%	990	922.1	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 72	$0.55	1.7%	1,092	1089.3	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 72	$0.55	1.7%	1,061	1089.3	0.97×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 71	$0.54	1.7%	1,191	1109.8	1.07×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 66	$0.50	1.7%	886	1198.9	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.46	1.7%	663	1302.3	0.51×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.45	1.7%	982	1331.4	0.74×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 123	$0.44	0.8%	699	642.1	1.09×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 123	$0.44	0.8%	1,182	642.1	1.84×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 123	$0.44	0.8%	702	642.1	1.09×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.38	0.8%	810	743.8	1.09×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.38	0.8%	784	743.8	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.35	0.8%	881	807.7	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 95	$0.34	0.8%	860	831.4	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.33	0.8%	934	856.6	1.09×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.33	0.8%	859	856.6	1.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.32	0.8%	796	883.4	0.90×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.32	0.8%	872	882.6	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 87	$0.31	0.8%	1,015	911.0	1.11×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 87	$0.31	0.8%	872	911.8	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$0.30	0.8%	957	941.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$0.29	0.8%	988	974.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 78	$0.28	0.8%	1,090	1009.6	1.08×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 78	$0.28	0.8%	1,034	1009.6	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 70	$0.25	0.8%	1,144	1130.3	1.01×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 64	$0.23	0.8%	1,244	1228.9	1.01×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 61	$0.22	0.8%	1,465	1284.9	1.14×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 56	$0.20	0.8%	1,465	1412.7	1.04×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 50	$0.18	0.8%	1,410	1570.4	0.90×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$0.18	0.8%	1,426	1570.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$0.16	0.8%	1,799	1766.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 42	$0.15	0.8%	1,848	1884.4	0.98×
Nova \| Caged Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.15	0.8%	1,966	1884.4	1.04×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$0.14	0.8%	2,387	2018.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 36	$0.13	0.8%	2,242	2173.9	1.03×
Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 36	$0.13	0.8%	2,211	2173.9	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.12	0.8%	2,360	2355.3	1.00×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 34	$0.12	0.8%	2,386	2354.5	1.01×
Nova \| Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$0.12	0.8%	2,313	2355.3	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.10	0.8%	2,794	2826.2	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.10	0.8%	2,821	2826.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.10	0.8%	2,416	2826.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.10	0.8%	2,437	2826.2	0.86×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 28	$0.10	0.8%	2,761	2826.2	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 22	$0.08	0.8%	3,494	3532.1	0.99×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/probably-dead, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$0.50$39.5779.14x4d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedWolfmanVsV$0.50$39.5779.14x6d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedTriangleObjet69$0.50$39.5779.14x6d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLadyFrost$0.50$39.5779.14x7d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedThalvala81rylyrrx$0.50$39.5779.14x7d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLekitorias$0.50$39.5779.14x7d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedOld Head Maz$0.50$39.5779.14x7d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedtaranilor1$0.50$39.5779.14x8d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSongoku.1$0.50$38.4276.84x1d

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified♤ ℙ𝕝𝕒𝕪𝕓𝕠𝕪$0.50$38.4276.84x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Raredameeeee$0.50$0.340.68x25s

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · RareSbire Saîtama$0.50$0.120.24x41s

MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSbire Saîtama$0.50$0.551.10x49s

MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffBr$$0.50$0.220.44x50s

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSbire Saîtama$0.50$17.4934.98x1m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecBr$$0.50$0.330.66x1m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialчерный умственно$0.50$0.180.36x1m

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareBr$$0.50$0.340.68x2m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecBr$$0.50$0.711.42x2m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecharveyharris665$0.50$0.140.28x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$0.50	87.94%	78
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$0.50	87.99%	78
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$0.50	88.34%	78
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.50	88.02%	78
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$0.50	88.00%	78
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$0.50	88.02%	78
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.50	88.02%	78
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.50	88.01%	78
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$0.50	87.97%	78
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.50	87.98%	78
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.50	88.01%	78

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.3%#d32ce6 0.1%milspec 41.7%#87c7ff 7.8%industrial 11.8%mil spec 9.5%consumer 5.8%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%#4b69ff 5.5%Rare 6.1%blue 5.5%Mil Spec 2.0%best hit $39.57 (79.14x)