Radiant Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.50

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $2.20 from 139 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.35%

851 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89 openings · below min

7 days

78.86%±9.05712 openings

30 days

78.35%±8.28851 openings

since tracking started

78.35%±8.28851 openings

41.0%67.3%93.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.07% – 86.64%, 851 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	89	67.30%±25.6	—	odds
7d	712	78.86%±9.05	−2.0σ	odds
30d	851	78.35%±8.28	−2.3σ	odds
All	851	78.35%±8.28	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values139 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 851 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$72.86	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 76	$14.94	9.0%	7	11.3	0.62×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$10.36	9.0%	15	16.2	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$8.83	9.0%	17	19.0	0.89×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$7.11	9.0%	20	23.6	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$6.79	9.0%	19	24.8	0.77×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$6.23	9.0%	31	27.0	1.15×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$6.15	9.0%	21	27.3	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$3.49	9.0%	42	48.2	0.87×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$3.32	9.0%	53	50.6	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$2.66	9.0%	52	63.2	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$2.35	9.0%	73	71.5	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 9,091	$1.96	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 8,333	$1.71	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 7,143	$1.51	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 7,143	$1.47	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 6,667	$1.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 6,250	$1.35	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 6,250	$1.24	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 5,882	$1.19	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,263	$1.09	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 5,000	$1.02	0.0%	1	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 4,545	$0.94	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 4,167	$0.88	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,704	$0.78	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,226	$0.67	0.0%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 3,030	$0.64	0.0%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,564	$0.53	0.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 2,326	$0.48	0.0%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 2,273	$0.48	0.0%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 2,222	$0.46	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,174	$0.45	0.0%	1	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 2,128	$0.45	0.0%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,818	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,538	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 1,250	$0.26	0.0%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,149	$0.24	0.0%	3	0.7	—
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 1,099	$0.23	0.0%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 1,053	$0.22	0.0%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,053	$0.22	0.0%	2	0.8	—
P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 1,010	$0.21	0.0%	3	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,010	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,010	$0.21	0.0%	2	0.8	—
MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,010	$0.21	0.0%	1	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 1,010	$0.21	0.0%	2	0.8	—
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 952	$0.20	0.0%	3	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 952	$0.20	0.0%	2	0.9	—
P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 952	$0.20	0.0%	1	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 952	$0.20	0.0%	2	0.9	—
P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 862	$0.18	0.0%	0	1.0	—
MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 862	$0.18	0.0%	0	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 862	$0.18	0.0%	2	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 820	$0.17	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 820	$0.17	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 719	$0.15	0.0%	1	1.2	0.85×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 383	$0.08	0.0%	2	2.2	0.90×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 385	$0.08	0.0%	3	2.2	1.36×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 385	$0.08	0.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 383	$0.08	0.0%	5	2.2	2.25×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 385	$0.08	0.0%	3	2.2	1.36×
MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 385	$0.08	0.0%	3	2.2	1.36×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 336	$0.07	0.0%	2	2.5	0.79×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 287	$0.06	0.0%	0	3.0	0.00×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 288	$0.06	0.0%	0	3.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 287	$0.06	0.0%	1	3.0	0.34×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	6	4.4	1.35×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	9	4.4	2.03×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	7	4.4	1.58×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	5	4.4	1.13×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Well-Worn)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	3	4.4	0.68×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	4	4.4	0.90×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	3	4.4	0.68×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	2	4.4	0.45×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	5	4.4	1.13×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	7	4.4	1.58×
CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	7	4.4	1.58×
SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 192	$0.04	0.0%	2	4.4	0.45×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	10	5.9	1.69×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	2	5.9	0.34×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	2	5.9	0.34×
Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	11	5.9	1.86×
Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	11	5.9	1.86×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	2	5.9	0.34×
CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Well-Worn)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	10	5.9	1.69×
CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	3	5.9	0.51×
MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	10	5.9	1.69×
XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	12	5.9	2.03×
XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.84×
SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	3	5.9	0.51×
SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
Nova \| Marsh Grass (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	10	5.9	1.69×
Nova \| Marsh Grass (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
Nova \| Marsh Grass (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	2	5.9	0.34×
Nova \| Marsh Grass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	10	5.9	1.69×
Nova \| Marsh Grass (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	12	5.9	2.03×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
P90 \| Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	3	5.9	0.51×
PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	1	5.9	0.17×
PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	9	5.9	1.52×
MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	12	5.9	2.03×
MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	9	5.9	1.52×
MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	4	5.9	0.68×
G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	3	5.9	0.51×
Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	6	5.9	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 144	$0.03	0.0%	8	5.9	1.35×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/radiant-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Desert Halftone (Factory New)weapon · CommonPsychoMantis23$2.50$0.030.01x11m

P90 | Desert Halftone (Factory New)weapon · CommonPsychoMantis23$2.50$0.030.01x27m

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffPsychoMantis23$2.50$0.210.08x27m

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecPsychoMantis23$2.50$0.220.09x28m

Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violetADi2137 skins.army$2.50$2.350.94x31m

CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Factory New)weapon · CommonADi2137 skins.army$2.50$0.040.02x31m

P90 | Desert Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · consumersekiki8302$2.50$0.030.01x53m

PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumersekiki8302$2.50$0.030.01x53m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkSwifTOne$2.50$7.112.84x2h

CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Well-Worn)weapon · Commonlol$2.50$0.030.01x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$2.50	88.00%	139

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 7.9%Mythical 23.6%violet 13.6%blue 1.0%uncommon 0.0%Rare 0.4%milspec 0.2%Mil Spec 0.0%#4b69ff 0.4%common 0.1%blueLight 1.6%#5e98d9 4.8%industrial 2.4%Uncommon 2.9%Common 5.9%consumer 26.5%Industrial 0.5%light blue 0.7%#b0c3d9 7.6%best hit —