Red Case

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$1.89

Advertised RTP

86.01%

EV $1.63 from 137 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.62%

1,930 openings, odds method

Variance

7.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

105.51%±43.74101 openings

7 days

80.72%±14.70894 openings

30 days

80.62%±10.841,930 openings

since tracking started

80.62%±10.841,930 openings

61.0%105.5%150.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	101	105.51%±43.7	+1.5σ	odds
7d	894	80.72%±14.7	+1.1σ	odds
30d	1,930	80.62%±10.8	+0.4σ	odds
All	1,930	80.62%±10.8	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values137 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,938 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$280	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$203	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$183	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$167	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$148	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$138	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25,000	$136	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20,000	$125	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$123	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$122	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 16,667	$119	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$116	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$100	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16,667	$100	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 14,286	$99.34	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$99.27	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$86.72	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 14,286	$83.26	0.4%	1	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$81.50	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$80.60	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$78.80	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$73.21	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$72.58	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11,111	$69.12	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$68.80	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$66.64	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11,111	$64.92	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$61.33	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,333	$52.70	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 7,692	$49.38	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$40.57	0.4%	2	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$40.49	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$39.57	0.4%	1	0.3	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 6,250	$38.09	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$37.30	0.4%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,556	$33.03	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$31.09	0.4%	0	0.4	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 4,762	$30.64	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 4,762	$29.18	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$28.78	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$28.55	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$28.32	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$28.16	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$25.29	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$25.24	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$24.76	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,846	$24.42	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$24.38	0.4%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$22.14	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$21.97	0.4%	0	0.6	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,333	$20.64	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$20.51	0.4%	0	0.6	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$18.79	0.4%	2	0.6	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$18.02	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$17.34	0.4%	0	0.7	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,703	$16.52	0.4%	1	0.7	—
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,564	$16.20	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$15.70	0.4%	2	0.8	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$15.46	0.4%	2	0.8	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,381	$14.99	0.4%	0	0.8	—
P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,381	$14.92	0.4%	2	0.8	—
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$14.75	0.4%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$14.74	0.4%	1	0.8	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,174	$13.80	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AUG \| Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$13.26	0.4%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,083	$12.84	0.4%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,041	$12.73	0.4%	0	0.9	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$12.43	0.4%	0	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,852	$11.56	0.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,818	$11.24	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,786	$11.06	0.4%	2	1.1	1.84×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,786	$11.03	0.4%	4	1.1	3.69×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$10.97	0.4%	1	1.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$10.90	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,562	$9.75	0.4%	1	1.2	0.81×
Slingshot \| Phoenixagent · violet	1 in 1,538	$9.49	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,493	$9.28	0.4%	5	1.3	3.85×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,190	$7.34	0.4%	4	1.6	2.46×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$7.19	0.4%	3	1.7	1.78×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$7.18	0.4%	2	1.7	1.19×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,136	$7.06	0.4%	1	1.7	0.59×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$6.22	0.4%	4	1.9	2.06×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$6.18	0.4%	6	1.9	3.10×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 962	$6.01	0.4%	1	2.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 794	$4.95	0.4%	0	2.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$4.80	0.4%	1	2.5	0.40×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$4.65	0.4%	6	2.6	2.31×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 719	$4.46	0.4%	3	2.7	1.11×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 649	$4.04	0.4%	4	3.0	1.34×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 602	$3.73	0.4%	4	3.2	1.24×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 595	$3.70	0.4%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 595	$3.70	0.4%	4	3.3	1.23×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 581	$3.62	0.4%	5	3.3	1.50×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 535	$3.32	0.4%	4	3.6	1.10×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 513	$3.20	0.4%	4	3.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 465	$2.90	0.4%	4	4.2	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 465	$2.89	0.4%	8	4.2	1.92×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 448	$2.79	0.4%	3	4.3	0.69×
Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 408	$2.54	0.4%	6	4.7	1.26×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 394	$2.45	0.4%	5	4.9	1.02×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 389	$2.42	0.4%	4	5.0	0.80×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 372	$2.31	0.4%	7	5.2	1.34×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 369	$2.30	0.4%	7	5.3	1.33×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 348	$2.17	0.4%	8	5.6	1.44×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 314	$1.96	0.4%	9	6.2	1.46×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 304	$1.89	0.4%	23	6.4	3.61×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 298	$1.85	0.4%	16	6.5	2.46×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 272	$1.69	0.4%	23	7.1	3.22×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 267	$1.66	0.4%	20	7.3	2.75×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 264	$1.64	0.4%	26	7.3	3.54×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$1.61	2.1%	42	42.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 45	$1.56	2.1%	40	43.3	0.92×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 44	$1.52	2.1%	41	44.4	0.92×
AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 42	$1.47	2.1%	42	45.9	0.91×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$1.46	2.1%	45	46.3	0.97×
AUG \| Random Access (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 40	$1.40	2.1%	48	48.3	0.99×
AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 40	$1.38	2.1%	44	49.0	0.90×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.32	2.1%	49	51.2	0.96×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$1.29	2.1%	39	52.4	0.74×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$1.27	2.1%	52	53.2	0.98×
Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.25	2.1%	53	54.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.25	2.1%	45	54.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.22	2.1%	59	55.4	1.07×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.21	2.1%	66	55.8	1.18×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.16	2.1%	47	58.2	0.81×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 32	$1.10	2.1%	56	61.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.02	2.1%	57	66.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.00	2.1%	59	67.6	0.87×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 26	$0.90	2.1%	66	75.1	0.88×
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$0.85	2.1%	72	79.5	0.91×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$0.80	2.1%	75	84.4	0.89×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$0.79	2.1%	87	85.5	1.02×
Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$0.74	2.1%	97	91.3	1.06×
Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$0.74	2.1%	89	91.3	0.98×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.67	2.1%	96	100.8	0.95×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.64	2.1%	106	105.6	1.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.62	2.1%	101	109.0	0.93×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/red-case, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedGrievous$1.89$12264.56x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarejqb.exe$2.25$1.510.67x35m

P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedjqb.exe$2.25$15.857.04x35m

MAG-7 | Core Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedh3kp0$2.25$1.120.50x40m

USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specLightning McQueen$2.25$0.620.28x52m

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rareinnata$2.25$1.510.67x3h

MAG-7 | Core Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedFrog On Fentanyl$2.25$1.120.50x4h

MAG-7 | Core Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff~v~KAİRO~v~$2.25$1.200.53x4h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedButt_Fcker_5000$2.25$1.210.54x5h

P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedButt_Fcker_5000$2.25$1.170.52x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.89	86.01%	137
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$1.89	85.97%	137

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%mil spec 22.4%restricted 47.3%milspec 0.1%classified 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%#4b69ff 0.4%violet 9.6%Mythical 6.7%#8847ff 5.4%#d32ce6 0.0%Rare 2.7%Restricted 4.8%best hit $122 (64.56x)