Red Eclipse

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

88.02%

EV $5.28 from 127 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.82%

489 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

81.35%±15.74379 openings

30 days

82.82%±13.87489 openings

since tracking started

82.82%±13.87489 openings

-0.5%53.8%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	51.46%±55.8	—	odds
7d	379	81.35%±15.7	−0.8σ	odds
30d	489	82.82%±13.9	−0.7σ	odds
All	489	82.82%±13.9	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values127 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 489 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$293	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,571	$191	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$140	1.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$98.80	1.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,613	$83.14	1.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,235	$64.55	1.0%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,075	$55.85	1.0%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,064	$55.52	1.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 870	$45.18	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 855	$44.45	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 840	$43.69	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 840	$43.64	1.0%	1	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 806	$41.78	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 794	$41.23	1.0%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 763	$39.85	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 763	$39.64	1.0%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 741	$38.76	1.0%	1	0.7	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$34.50	1.0%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 658	$34.24	1.0%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 629	$32.75	1.0%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 472	$24.56	1.0%	2	1.0	1.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 465	$24.25	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 431	$22.44	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 405	$21.08	1.0%	3	1.2	2.48×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 405	$21.02	1.0%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 392	$20.45	1.0%	2	1.2	1.60×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 366	$19.07	1.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 362	$18.87	1.0%	1	1.3	0.74×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 344	$17.88	1.0%	3	1.4	2.11×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 334	$17.35	1.0%	5	1.5	3.42×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 331	$17.23	1.0%	1	1.5	0.68×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 330	$17.20	1.0%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 325	$16.91	1.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 323	$16.77	1.0%	2	1.5	1.32×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 318	$16.55	1.0%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 279	$14.49	1.0%	3	1.8	1.71×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 276	$14.36	1.0%	1	1.8	0.56×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 272	$14.17	1.0%	4	1.8	2.23×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 268	$13.94	1.0%	5	1.8	2.74×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 252	$13.09	1.0%	2	1.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 226	$11.74	1.0%	2	2.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 216	$11.26	1.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 210	$10.91	1.0%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 208	$10.83	1.0%	2	2.4	0.85×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 202	$10.53	1.0%	2	2.4	0.83×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 196	$10.21	1.0%	3	2.5	1.20×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 193	$10.04	1.0%	3	2.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 190	$9.88	1.0%	5	2.6	1.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 185	$9.63	1.0%	3	2.6	1.14×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 177	$9.20	1.0%	6	2.8	2.17×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 176	$9.18	1.0%	1	2.8	0.36×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 175	$9.07	1.0%	4	2.8	1.43×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 171	$8.91	1.0%	3	2.9	1.05×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 171	$8.89	1.0%	4	2.9	1.40×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$8.75	1.0%	1	2.9	0.34×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 168	$8.71	1.0%	4	2.9	1.37×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 162	$8.43	1.0%	1	3.0	0.33×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 162	$8.42	1.0%	2	3.0	0.66×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 159	$8.28	1.0%	3	3.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 156	$8.12	1.0%	4	3.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 155	$8.07	1.0%	1	3.2	0.32×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 152	$7.90	1.0%	3	3.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 152	$7.88	1.0%	4	3.2	1.24×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 149	$7.75	1.0%	1	3.3	0.30×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$7.52	1.0%	1	3.4	0.30×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 142	$7.38	1.0%	4	3.4	1.16×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 140	$7.31	1.0%	10	3.5	2.87×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$7.28	1.0%	5	3.5	1.43×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 138	$7.16	1.0%	2	3.6	0.56×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 137	$7.14	1.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 134	$6.95	1.0%	0	3.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 133	$6.92	1.0%	1	3.7	0.27×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 132	$6.89	1.0%	2	3.7	0.54×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 132	$6.84	1.0%	2	3.7	0.54×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 131	$6.82	1.0%	3	3.7	0.81×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 124	$6.44	1.0%	6	4.0	1.52×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$6.35	1.0%	3	4.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 118	$6.16	1.0%	5	4.1	1.21×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 116	$6.03	1.0%	4	4.2	0.95×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 114	$5.91	1.0%	4	4.3	0.93×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 113	$5.88	1.0%	8	4.3	1.85×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 227	$5.26	0.4%	5	2.2	2.32×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 210	$4.85	0.4%	3	2.3	1.29×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 206	$4.78	0.4%	2	2.4	0.84×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 205	$4.76	0.4%	4	2.4	1.68×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 204	$4.73	0.4%	2	2.4	0.83×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 202	$4.68	0.4%	1	2.4	0.41×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$4.64	0.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 196	$4.54	0.4%	2	2.5	0.80×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 195	$4.52	0.4%	2	2.5	0.80×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 193	$4.46	0.4%	4	2.5	1.58×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 182	$4.21	0.4%	0	2.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 179	$4.15	0.4%	0	2.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 178	$4.11	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 174	$4.03	0.4%	4	2.8	1.42×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 174	$4.02	0.4%	4	2.8	1.42×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 172	$4.00	0.4%	3	2.8	1.06×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 171	$3.96	0.4%	3	2.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 169	$3.91	0.4%	3	2.9	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$3.86	0.4%	2	2.9	0.68×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 166	$3.84	0.4%	8	3.0	2.71×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 146	$3.38	0.4%	5	3.4	1.49×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 141	$3.28	0.4%	5	3.5	1.45×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 138	$3.19	0.4%	4	3.6	1.13×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 123	$2.84	0.4%	2	4.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 113	$2.61	0.4%	3	4.3	0.69×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$2.29	0.4%	2	4.9	0.40×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$2.07	0.4%	4	5.5	0.73×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 82	$1.90	0.4%	7	6.0	1.17×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 79	$1.82	0.4%	5	6.2	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$1.52	0.4%	14	7.5	1.88×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$1.46	0.4%	4	7.8	0.52×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$1.45	0.4%	5	7.8	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.42	0.4%	9	8.0	1.13×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$1.36	0.4%	9	8.3	1.08×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 55	$1.27	0.4%	8	8.9	0.90×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.17	0.4%	11	9.7	1.14×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$1.15	0.4%	11	9.9	1.12×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 47	$1.08	0.4%	5	10.5	0.48×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 42	$0.97	0.4%	15	11.7	1.28×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$0.88	0.4%	15	12.9	1.17×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$0.66	0.4%	21	17.2	1.22×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$0.64	0.4%	19	17.7	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.62	0.4%	21	18.3	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.54	0.4%	18	21.0	0.86×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.47	0.4%	17	24.1	0.71×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 20	$0.47	0.4%	27	24.1	1.12×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/red-eclipse, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedTagervie$6.00$6.821.14x14h

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffDzony$6.00$0.660.11x14h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDzony$6.00$0.640.11x14h

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecyeez$6.00$0.540.09x14h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedEdiii$6.00$7.311.22x15h

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedUser$6.00$1.520.25x16h

AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffUser$6.00$4.460.74x16h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHarry Kokesh$6.00$0.880.15x16h

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHarry Kokesh$6.00$1.520.25x16h

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecM E E J A$6.00$0.540.09x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	127
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.00	88.23%	127
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	87.96%	127
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.00	88.02%	127
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	127
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.00	88.06%	127
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	127
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	127
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	127
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	127

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.8%3 4.9%classified 14.9%Ancient 0.2%red 0.2%restricted 31.3%Legendary 3.5%Restricted 1.4%Classified 2.0%pink 5.3%Mythical 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%#8847ff 3.7%violet 8.0%#d32ee6 1.1%blue 0.7%milspec 12.2%mil spec 2.1%#4b69ff 3.5%best hit —