Riptide Knives

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$159.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $146.29 from 222 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.38%

303 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

88.62%±13.49277 openings

30 days

88.38%±12.96303 openings

since tracking started

88.38%±12.96303 openings

25.0%96.8%168.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	96.84%±71.2	—	odds
7d	277	88.62%±13.5	−0.5σ	odds
30d	303	88.38%±13.0	−0.6σ	odds
All	303	88.38%±13.0	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values222 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 303 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,128	$2,638	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,493	$1,880	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 1,449	$1,796	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 1,316	$1,628	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,299	$1,597	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,190	$1,474	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$1,250	0.9%	1	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 935	$1,163	0.9%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 917	$1,147	0.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 862	$1,070	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 840	$1,043	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 787	$977	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 769	$956	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 725	$899	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 680	$848	0.9%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$829	0.9%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 658	$817	0.8%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 637	$795	0.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 629	$779	0.8%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 610	$759	0.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 599	$744	0.8%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 595	$740	0.8%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 592	$734	0.8%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 559	$694	0.8%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 556	$689	0.8%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 543	$672	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 535	$664	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 532	$661	0.8%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 513	$635	0.8%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 485	$603	0.8%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 478	$596	0.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 476	$592	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 397	$493	0.8%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 379	$471	0.9%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 309	$384	0.9%	0	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 254	$315	0.8%	1	1.2	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 252	$313	0.8%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$309	0.8%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 223	$278	0.8%	1	1.4	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 218	$271	0.8%	1	1.4	0.72×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 208	$259	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 205	$255	0.8%	3	1.5	2.03×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 204	$253	0.8%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 201	$250	0.9%	4	1.5	2.66×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 198	$246	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 191	$238	0.8%	2	1.6	1.26×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 188	$234	0.8%	2	1.6	1.24×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$221	0.8%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 178	$220	0.8%	2	1.7	1.17×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$220	0.8%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 166	$207	0.8%	1	1.8	0.55×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$200	0.8%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 158	$197	0.8%	4	1.9	2.09×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 156	$195	0.8%	2	1.9	1.03×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 152	$188	0.8%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 142	$176	0.8%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 140	$174	0.8%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 137	$170	0.8%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 135	$168	0.8%	2	2.2	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 134	$167	0.8%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 130	$162	0.8%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 130	$162	0.8%	2	2.3	0.86×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 130	$162	0.8%	3	2.3	1.29×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 127	$158	0.8%	2	2.4	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 126	$156	0.8%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 124	$154	0.8%	1	2.4	0.41×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 123	$153	0.8%	3	2.5	1.22×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 119	$148	0.8%	2	2.5	0.79×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 119	$147	0.8%	1	2.6	0.39×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 118	$147	0.8%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 118	$147	0.8%	4	2.6	1.56×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 377	$145	0.3%	2	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 375	$144	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 361	$139	0.3%	2	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 346	$133	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 346	$133	0.3%	2	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 345	$133	0.3%	4	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 341	$131	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 331	$128	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 329	$127	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 328	$126	0.3%	2	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 326	$125	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 324	$124	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 324	$124	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 323	$124	0.3%	3	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 321	$124	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 322	$123	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 318	$123	0.3%	4	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 316	$122	0.3%	2	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 313	$121	0.3%	1	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 312	$120	0.3%	1	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 304	$117	0.3%	0	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 303	$117	0.3%	1	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 302	$116	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 302	$116	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 299	$115	0.3%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 297	$114	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 297	$114	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 290	$112	0.3%	1	1.0	0.96×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 287	$110	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 285	$110	0.3%	2	1.1	1.88×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 283	$109	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 282	$109	0.3%	1	1.1	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 281	$108	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 275	$106	0.3%	1	1.1	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 272	$104	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$104	0.3%	2	1.1	1.78×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$104	0.3%	2	1.1	1.78×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 267	$103	0.3%	2	1.1	1.76×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 265	$102	0.3%	2	1.1	1.75×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 264	$101	0.3%	1	1.1	0.87×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$101	0.3%	3	1.2	2.60×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 262	$101	0.3%	2	1.2	1.73×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 261	$100	0.3%	1	1.2	0.86×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 256	$98.73	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 256	$98.37	0.3%	5	1.2	4.22×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 256	$98.34	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 254	$97.65	0.3%	3	1.2	2.51×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 253	$97.15	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 251	$96.38	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 251	$96.31	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$95.80	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 249	$95.68	0.3%	2	1.2	1.64×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 249	$95.63	0.3%	3	1.2	2.46×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$94.77	0.3%	2	1.2	1.63×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 243	$93.36	0.3%	1	1.2	0.80×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 237	$91.00	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 236	$90.88	0.3%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 235	$90.32	0.3%	2	1.3	1.55×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 234	$89.90	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 234	$89.84	0.3%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 231	$88.89	0.3%	3	1.3	2.29×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 230	$88.72	0.3%	6	1.3	4.56×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 231	$88.67	0.3%	1	1.3	0.76×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 230	$88.31	0.3%	3	1.3	2.28×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 225	$86.61	0.3%	1	1.3	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 225	$86.59	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 225	$86.34	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 224	$86.27	0.3%	1	1.4	0.74×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 224	$86.26	0.3%	1	1.4	0.74×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 221	$84.80	0.3%	1	1.4	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 220	$84.66	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 216	$83.18	0.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 216	$83.17	0.3%	2	1.4	1.43×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 216	$82.85	0.3%	3	1.4	2.13×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 215	$82.70	0.3%	2	1.4	1.42×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 214	$82.45	0.3%	3	1.4	2.12×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 214	$82.38	0.3%	2	1.4	1.41×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 213	$81.83	0.3%	4	1.4	2.81×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 213	$81.80	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 213	$81.79	0.3%	4	1.4	2.81×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 212	$81.68	0.3%	2	1.4	1.40×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 212	$81.56	0.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 212	$81.48	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 211	$81.33	0.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 211	$80.93	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 210	$80.84	0.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 210	$80.72	0.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 210	$80.55	0.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 210	$80.51	0.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 209	$80.47	0.3%	2	1.4	1.38×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 209	$80.42	0.3%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 209	$80.32	0.3%	4	1.5	2.76×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 209	$80.26	0.3%	5	1.5	3.45×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 208	$80.09	0.3%	1	1.5	0.69×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 207	$79.69	0.3%	3	1.5	2.05×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 207	$79.67	0.3%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 206	$79.29	0.3%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 205	$78.88	0.3%	2	1.5	1.35×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 201	$77.34	0.3%	1	1.5	0.66×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$76.90	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 199	$76.61	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 198	$76.17	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 194	$74.58	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 193	$74.24	0.3%	4	1.6	2.55×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 191	$73.42	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 191	$73.32	0.3%	1	1.6	0.63×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 190	$73.13	0.3%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 190	$72.98	0.3%	3	1.6	1.88×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 189	$72.61	0.3%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 189	$72.56	0.3%	3	1.6	1.87×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 188	$72.49	0.3%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 188	$72.12	0.3%	3	1.6	1.86×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 184	$70.81	0.3%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 184	$70.79	0.3%	2	1.6	1.22×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 183	$70.66	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 179	$68.68	0.3%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 177	$68.05	0.3%	4	1.7	2.34×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$67.28	0.3%	2	1.7	1.15×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 174	$66.99	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 173	$66.61	0.3%	3	1.7	1.72×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 173	$66.55	0.3%	2	1.8	1.14×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 172	$66.06	0.3%	1	1.8	0.57×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 172	$66.00	0.3%	4	1.8	2.27×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 171	$65.78	0.3%	5	1.8	2.83×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 170	$65.48	0.3%	3	1.8	1.68×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 168	$64.46	0.3%	6	1.8	3.32×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 164	$63.24	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 163	$62.68	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 163	$62.68	0.3%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$62.67	0.3%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 162	$62.40	0.3%	5	1.9	2.68×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$61.81	0.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$60.54	0.3%	2	1.9	1.04×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$60.49	0.3%	4	1.9	2.08×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 156	$60.02	0.3%	1	1.9	0.51×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 145	$55.62	0.3%	2	2.1	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 144	$55.46	0.3%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 142	$54.53	0.3%	2	2.1	0.94×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 141	$54.35	0.3%	2	2.1	0.93×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 141	$54.22	0.3%	3	2.1	1.40×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 141	$54.21	0.3%	2	2.1	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 141	$54.12	0.3%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 134	$51.36	0.3%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$51.02	0.3%	3	2.3	1.31×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 131	$50.57	0.3%	2	2.3	0.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 127	$48.72	0.3%	4	2.4	1.67×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 127	$48.68	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 124	$47.66	0.3%	4	2.4	1.64×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 124	$47.63	0.3%	2	2.4	0.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 122	$47.00	0.3%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 120	$46.10	0.3%	2	2.5	0.79×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/riptide-knives, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · CovertWaldefant$140$1,2508.93x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covertAdrian Spejson Puchacki$140$1,1638.31x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · goldzat$140$8636.17x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeThe_Punisher$140$8205.86x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertenzo.benedetto1$140$7675.48x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$140$6614.73x3d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeOverLord$140$6354.54x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeRip$140$6034.31x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifestrukesgamba$159$2001.26x11h

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeANNA$140$53.910.39x18h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifevor_v_tyurme$140$65.480.47x18h

★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertMomFundMyPorn$140$1230.88x18h

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyRip$140$1951.39x19h

★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · rareMut3k1$140$1010.72x19h

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifey0koLand$140$98.370.70x19h

★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertzebrak1999$140$1971.41x21h

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHeiPoDo$140$1040.74x22h

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeMOCNYBOT$140$2381.70x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$159	92.00%	222
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$159	92.00%	222
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$140	92.01%	222
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$140	92.01%	222
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$140	92.01%	222
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$140	91.99%	222
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$140	91.99%	222
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$140	92.00%	222
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$140	92.00%	221
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$140	91.99%	221
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$140	92.00%	221
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$159	92.00%	221
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$159	92.00%	221

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 55.7%covert 23.0%gold 9.9%Covert 1.2%sunny 5.4%Immortal 3.0%rare 0.9%#ffd700 1.1%best hit $1,250 (8.93x)