Skeleton Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$450.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $396.00 from 120 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.83%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

47.5%94.0%140.5%

Small sample. 4 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	93.83%±45.8	—	odds
30d	4	93.83%±45.8	—	odds
All	4	93.83%±45.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values120 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 126	$1,432	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 74	$845	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 71	$807	2.9%	1	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 68	$775	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 67	$765	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 57	$645	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 53	$607	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 53	$605	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 52	$594	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 51	$584	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 51	$581	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 47	$538	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 46	$522	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 46	$519	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 46	$518	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 45	$518	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 44	$504	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 43	$488	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 43	$488	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$461	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 40	$456	2.9%	1	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 40	$452	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 38	$435	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 36	$412	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 36	$408	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 35	$402	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 35	$398	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 410	$389	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 410	$389	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 408	$388	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$380	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 394	$375	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendary	1 in 389	$370	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 347	$330	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 341	$325	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$317	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 330	$314	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 325	$309	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 321	$305	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 318	$303	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 306	$291	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 302	$287	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 299	$284	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 298	$283	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 296	$281	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 292	$277	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 292	$277	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 291	$277	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 290	$276	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 288	$274	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$272	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 287	$272	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 280	$266	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 272	$258	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 271	$257	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 270	$257	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 269	$255	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 265	$252	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 264	$250	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 264	$250	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 258	$246	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 257	$244	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 253	$240	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$237	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 249	$237	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 248	$235	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$234	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · epic	1 in 244	$232	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 237	$225	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 234	$222	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 231	$219	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 221	$210	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 220	$209	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 220	$209	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 219	$208	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 216	$206	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 211	$201	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 210	$199	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 210	$199	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 208	$198	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 206	$195	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 201	$191	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 199	$189	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 198	$188	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 198	$188	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 193	$184	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$183	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 189	$180	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 188	$179	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 187	$178	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 184	$175	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 183	$174	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 179	$170	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 176	$168	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 176	$167	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 175	$167	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$166	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 174	$165	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 174	$165	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 170	$162	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 169	$161	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 166	$158	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 165	$157	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 164	$156	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$154	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$153	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$153	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$153	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 158	$151	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$149	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 155	$147	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$147	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 153	$145	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 153	$145	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 151	$144	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 151	$143	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 148	$141	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$140	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 147	$140	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 144	$137	0.2%	0	0.0	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/skeleton-knife, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$450$8101.80x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · epicB?OVO$450$4561.01x1d

★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · epic!DANNCHE$450$2320.52x1d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$450$8101.80x3d

★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$450$1910.42x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$450	87.92%	120
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$450	88.00%	120
3 Nov, 05:35 UTC	$450	88.00%	120

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.6%covert 17.2%covert knife 43.2%#EB4B4B 1.5%Covert 6.9%#ffd700 10.3%epic 7.0%Immortal 3.1%gold 5.4%rare 0.8%best hit $810 (1.80x)